SPATIAL MODEL OF
DEFORESTATION FOR
NORTHEAST BOLIVIA
Eric Armijo
Methods for Biomass Estimationand Forest-Cover Mapping in the Tropics
Rwanda. June 20-25, 2011
WHY SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION?
• Better understanding of past land use change processes
• Predictive power (future scenarios): spatial patterns
• Support decision-making for natural resource managers
• REDD mechanism: baseline definition(additionality)
Dinamica EGOUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil
http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/
• Multiple land cover/use transitions at the same time• Subregion support• Many transition matrices (annual deforestation rates)• Dynamic variables• Highly customizable (w/ spatial patterns) • Robust with large datasets• Freeware, available on the web• Tutorial & technical support available (forum)
MODELING ENVIRONMENT
Dinamica EGO
MODELING ENVIRONMENT
STUDY AREA
AMAZONEXTENT
SOUTH AMERICA
Indigenous REDD Programin the Bolivian Amazon
Size: ~ 3.8 Million Ha.
160,000 inhabitants
4 indigenous territories
Forest cover (2008):
~2.7 Million Ha. (71,9 %)
Deforestation: 9,800 Ha/yr
MAIN DRIVERS AND AGENTS OF DEFORESTATION
Cattle ranching (pastures) Small-scale agriculture
Slash-and-burn
~ 20 - 50 Ha. ~ 1 - 5 Ha.
Road improvement
11
223344
44
44
11
22
33
44
Riberalta - Guayaramerín
Riberalta - Rurrenabaque
El Choro - Cobija
Rural (outside main road)
REGIONALIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA
Lambin & Geist, 2006
Amount of forest
conversion
SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
Area (Ha.)
antes 1991 1991-2001 2001-2005 2005-2008
Study area 83,486 45,390 46,185 29,005 204,066
Average annual
deforestation rate
(Ha/year) 4,539 11,546 9,668
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Deforestation(Area in Ha.)
1991 2001 2005 2008
DEFORESTATION RATE
1.54 %
0.62 %
0.10 %
0.13 %
0.13 %
0.13 %
The transition matrix is calculated for each
subregion based on observed (past)
deforestation
DEFORESTATION RATE (Transition Matrix)
DEFORESTATION RATE1991-2005
Lambin & Geist, 2006
Location of forest
conversion
SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
PREDICTORS (VARIABLES) DEFINITION
Distance to deforested areas Distance to main roads
“Deforestation risk”
Deforestation predictors
(variables)
Land use
1991
& 2005
Map of
changes
Spatial transition probability
Lambin & Geist, 2006
Simulation
SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
Deforestation patch formation
Expander = 20% Expander = 40% Expander = 60% Expander = 80%
GENERATING SPATIAL PATTERNS
Simulated deforestation: 2005-2008
MODEL VALIDATION
Is the model capturingadequately the past
dynamics ?
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Model fitness
Spatial resolution (m)Sim
ilari
rty
PROJECTING FUTURE DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS
2008 2020
forestdeforestation Dinamica
EGO
Thanks you !
Questions
Eric Armijo
http://www.fan-bo.org/
http://www.reddamazonia.org/