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Southern LakesWildfire Threat
Assessment Model
November 2014
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Wildfire Threat Assessment Model? Determine the potential impact of fires on a community. Account for the effect of management actions on that threat. Identify high risk landscape units. Present options to reduce the probability of large, intense wildfires. Assist in pre-suppression planning. Help create informative, educational products for mitigation programs.
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Wildfire Threat Assessment Model
McGregor Model Forest
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Model Inputs1. Risk of Ignition
lightning-caused fire occurrence human-caused fire occurrence
2. Values at Risk population density Other infrastructure
3. Suppression Capability driving time from IA base Distance from air tanker base Distance from road Steepness of slope
4. Fire Behaviour Potential Head fire intensity Rate of spread Crown fraction burned
(Fuel Type)
1. Risk of Ignition lightning-caused fire occurrence human-caused fire occurrence
2. Values at Risk population density Other infrastructure
3. Suppression Capability driving time from IA base Distance from air tanker base Distance from road Steepness of slope
4. Fire Behaviour Potential Head fire intensity Rate of spread Crown fraction burned
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Study Area
• Greater Whitehorse – Southern Lakes
• 4800 km2 or 480,000 ha
Includes:• Deep Creek• Takhini River• Fish Lake• Lorne Mtn/Goldenhorn• Annie Lake Road• Carcross• Tagish subdn’s• Jakes Corner• Marsh Lake subdn’s
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Risk of Ignition
• Ignition patterns and densities• Not enough lightning?
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FBP Fuels
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FBP Fuels(Fire behaviour potential)
• proxy for Head Fire Intensity
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Elevation• Above 1400m = non-fuel • Above 1250m = D1/D2 (shrub)
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Elevation• 1200m mask
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• Suppression Capability Input• Primary and secondary roads• Tertiary 2 wheel drive
Proximity to roads
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Driving time from attack base
• EMS response model• 3 minutes and 9 minutes
• Suppression Capability input• Using Network Analysis
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• Suppression Capability input• Distance from air attack
base in kilometres
Air Attack Response Time
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Slope• Suppression Capability input• Flat = green• Steep = red
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Slope – detailGrey Mountain
• Flat = green• Steep = red
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• Population density as a proxy for Values at Risk
• Lot parcels used to determine population
Population Density
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Population Density• Higher population density= more
values at risk
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Ground Response• Further away from Hanger D = more risk
RoadClass SpeedLimit (km/h)
Expressway / Highway 90
Arterial 70
Alleyway / Lane 20
All Others 50
Hanger D
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Ground Response• Further away from Hanger D = more risk
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Ground Response – can we combine?
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Other Inputs
• Weather: Percentile scenarios based upon historical data
• Values at Risk: Critical Infrastructure and other significant values
• Burn P-3 as the Fire Behaviour Potential input
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Key Components of Wildfire Risk Assessment
Wildfire Risk
(LOC)
Wildfire Risk
(LOC)
Fire Effects Index
Probability of Fire
Occurrence
Fire Behaviour
Fire Suppression Effectiveness
Values Impacted
Rating
Suppression Difficulty
Rating
Fire Occurrence
Areas
Surface Fuels
Topography
Canopy Closure
Historic Fire Sizes
Historic Protection
Organization
Transportation and
Infrastructure
Wildland Urban
Interface
Production Forests
Fuel Type
Topography
Historic Fire Locations