Solutions that make an impactSwiss Re Media Conference, Monte Carlo, 11 September 2017
Today's agenda
Moses OjeisekhobaCEO Reinsurance
Christian MumenthalerGroup Chief Executive Officer
Edi SchmidGroup Chief Underwriting Officer
Industry environment & trends
Underwriting of the future
Summary and Outlook
Innovations that create resilience
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Christian MumenthalerGroup Chief Executive Officer
Innovations that create resilienceChristian Mumenthaler – Group CEO
The global protection gap is large…… and it continues to grow
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The building blocks of Nat Cat & Weather Protection GapsUSD 180 billion globally, and growing …
5Source: Swiss Re Institute1Number of lives insured/total population; source Microinsurance Network 20152sigma property protection gap 2015
AsiaUSD 81bn
ANZUSD 1bn
North AmericaUSD 35bn
South AmericaUSD 14bn
AfricaUSD 20bn
EuropeUSD 30bn
CALIFORNIA12% of homesinsured for fire are covered for earthquake
most do not buy insurance KENYA
6% micro-insurance coverage1
most have no access to insurance
CHINAUSD 22bn Nat Cat protection gap2
most cannot affordinsurance
6
Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP)Index-based insurance cover with a digital value chain
Index-/ satellite-
based
2013 2014
2015 2016
Public-private
partnership
Digital Value Chain
cover for flood, excessive rain, drought and low temperatures
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tailored solution combining a weather index product with a satellite-based flood parametric product
Heilongjiang province weather coverPublic-private partnership to ensure broad coverage
28 counties in Heilongjiang province covered
anti-poverty insurance deal allows faster pay-outs than traditional cover
Tailored parametric
anti-poverty solution
Only 12% of the homes insured for fire are covered for earthquake2
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Reasons include optimism bias, lack of awareness, pricing, deductibles, expected state support, lack of trust, complexity
In the next 30 years, there is a >99% chance that California will be struck by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, and a 48% chance of a magnitude 7.5 earthquake (45x stronger)1
Digital advisors could help close the gap
Trusted digital
advisors recommend
insurance
Protection gap in mature marketsAn outlook: digital advisors could change the market
1The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)2According to estimates by Swiss Re Institute
Industry environment & trendsMoses Ojeisekhoba – CEO Reinsurance
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Industry sample: SR, MR, HR, SCOR, PartnerRe, Berkshire Hathaway, Trans Re, Everest Re, XL Catlin, Validus Re, Arch Capital, Axis Capital, Aspen Re, Renaissance Re.Note: Normalised CRs are adjusted for above/below NatCat losses and for adverse/favourable claims reserve developments. Source: Swiss Re Institute.
Deteriorating combined ratio and
ROE trends
Industry performance
Development of P&C reinsurance market
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17
Reported combined ratio Normalised combined ratio
Industry ROE Normalised ROE
Trends affecting the insurance industry
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Advancements in Technology
Growth Opportunities
Customer Choices
Competitive EnvironmentGeopolitical Landscape
Regulatory Challenges
Our environment
continuesto be
challenging
New solutions & services across the value chain
12Note: Non-exhaustive overview of selected digital innovation at Swiss Re
Contracts Intelligence
SwiftRe (end-to-end facultative R/I solution)
New products (for the digitised environment)
Parametric insurance
Telematics solutions
Faster, more insightful processing
Predictive claims
Early warning and information
Automated/ predictive UW
Behavioural UW Risk Engineering app Automated portfolio
and risk monitoring
Digital consumer engagement
Predictive lapse modelling
Sales analytics
Address clients’ business needs
Add value to clients’ original business
Build on our Swiss Re knowledge
Leverage technology
Smarter together –
creates value for our clients
ClaimsBusiness
ManagementUnderwritingProduct Design
Distribution & Sales
L&H Solutions
P&C Solutions
Cat Net
• Online natural hazard atlas, visualises regions‘ risk profiles and offers swift location and portfolio analysis
• One-stop-shop for scientific and industry data about hazards, catastrophic events, losses, exposures
• Guarantees efficiency and accuracy gains in underwriting and risk management
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Our solutions are ready
Examples of digital innovation at Swiss Re
Stork
• Sophisticated machine learning based pricing engine to accurately price flight delay risks
• Automated claims payments and real-time steering• Flexible turn-key solution can be leveraged for other
parametric insurance offerings like EQ
Magnum
• Flagship Life & Health expert automated underwriting system• Helps insurers sell more, improve risk management and lower
operational costs• A key component in our clients' digitisation strategy
Underwriting of the futureEdi Schmid – Group Chief Underwriting Officer
Life
R&D in underwriting enables outperformance and differentiation
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Focus of R&D in underwriting
Property
Specialty lines
Casualty
Health
Economic, legal, political, societal
changes
Mortality trends
Lapse trends
Cyber
Climate change
Credit default probabilities
Beh
avio
ural
eco
nom
ics
Dig
ital
ana
lyti
cs
Nat Cat perils
Morbidity trends
Applications
• Proprietary nat cat toolbox
• Liability Solutions
• Magnum
• Target liability portfolio
• Retro and hedging
• Cycle management
DifferentiationOutperformance
Our target liability portfolio process allows effective capital allocation in underwriting
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Target liability portfolio
Capital and liquidity requirements
Strategic asset allocation
Required risk capitalliquidity requirements
Improve portfolio composition, investment profile and/or funding, to ensure that business plans• support shareholder-value creation• meet/exceed our financial targets• are adequately supported by capital• are in line with Group risk appetite
Desired UW portfolio (mid-term projection)
Current UW portfolio
Implied investment profile
Underwriting trends
obtained by means of R&D
What is the next Asbestos or Deepwater Horizon?
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Swiss Re helps insurers better understand, quantify and transfer accumulation exposure at portfolio level
Quantifying liability accumulation exposure
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Assessment of product
liability and financial lines systemic risk
Product liability and recall
accumulation in automotive
supply chains
Exposure analysis for disaster on industrial premises
Use of technology to support efficient underwriting
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Price trends - industry outlook
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• Property Cat: Prices are expected to stabilise, due to recent loss events
• Property per risk pricing expected to be stable, with changes driven by loss experience
• At current levels of market pricing we have withdrawn some capacity. We retain the flexibility to quickly upscale when market conditions allow and our profitability requirements are met
• In line with our mission to build resilience, we are investing in developing new solutions where pricing is at sustainable levels
• Price trends to vary depending on market and class of business. Overall, some further rate reductions are expected
• Despite pricing pressure in mainstream specialty business, we continue to see opportunities in more complex coverage and new technologies
Casualty:Property:
Special Lines:
• Liability: Prices expected to reflect recent loss events
• Motor: Pricing corrections are expected to continue
• Inflation remains a key risk factor for future profitability across both Liability and Motor
• We continue to have significant appetite for the right risks and right clients
SummaryDigital
transformation
.
Our knowledge and R&D
Innovative solutions to
make the world more
resilient
Summary
Christian Mumenthaler – Group CEO
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Cautionary note on forward-looking statementsCertain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements (including as to plans objectives, targets and trends) and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact.Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as “anticipate“, “assume“, “believe“, “continue“, “estimate“, “expect“, “foresee“, “intend“, “may increase“ and “may fluctuate“ and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as “will“, “should“, “would“ and “could“. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re’s actual results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, capital or liquidity positions or prospects to be materially different from any future results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, capital or liquidity positions or prospects expressed or implied by such statements or cause Swiss Re to not achieve its published targets. Such factors include, among others:
• further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto;
• further deterioration in global economic conditions;• Swiss Re’s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets,
including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re’s financial strength or otherwise;
• the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re’s investment assets;
• changes in Swiss Re’s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions;
• uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments;• possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities on Swiss Re’s balance
sheet equivalent to their mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes;• the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the
ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings;
• the possibility that Swiss Re’s hedging arrangements may not be effective;• the lowering or loss of one of the financial strength or other ratings of one or more
Swiss Re companies, and developments adversely affecting Swiss Re’s ability to achieve improved ratings;
• the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry;• uncertainties in estimating reserves;• uncertainties in estimating future claims for purposes of financial reporting,
particularly with respect to large natural catastrophes, as significant uncertainties may be involved in estimating losses from such events and preliminary estimates may be subject to change as new information becomes available;
• the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events;• acts of terrorism and acts of war;• mortality, morbidity and longevity experience;• policy renewal and lapse rates;• extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re’s clients and other counterparties,
such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events;• current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its
ceding companies, and the interpretation of legislation or regulations by regulators;
• legal actions or regulatory investigations or actions, including those in respect of industry requirements or business conduct rules of general applicability;
• changes in accounting standards;• significant investments, acquisitions or dispositions, and any delays,
unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions;
• changing levels of competition; and• operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other
internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks.
These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.This communication is not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not constitute an offer for the sale of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities in any jurisdiction, including the United States. Any such offer will only be made by means of a prospectus or offering memorandum, and in compliance with applicable securities laws.