Download - Slide2 bme adat_2016
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session#2 Divényi János @divenyi.janos
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How to find answersto relevant questions
using data
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QUESTION
DATA
ANALYSIS
PRESENTATION
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QUESTION
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QUESTION
DATA
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GET DATA
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https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-large-datasets-open-to-the-publichttps://sqlbelle.com/2015/01/16/data-sets-for-bianalyticsvisualization-projects
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https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-large-datasets-open-to-the-publichttps://sqlbelle.com/2015/01/16/data-sets-for-bianalyticsvisualization-projects
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MEASURE WHAT YOU WANT
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http://boredbug.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/onesecondbeforedisaster.jpg
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http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/ed571/571-Modules/M3/Sampling_Design-Funny.gif
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Prezi & Conversion Rate
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Street Bump, Boston
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How doesa new piece of
informationaffects
what we knowabout the world?
ww
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phot
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Down syndrome screening
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
Down if positive?
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Down if positive?
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Down if positive?
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Down if positive?P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Unconditional risk 1:400 = 0.0025Discovery rate 0.83False positive rate 0.047Down if positive 0.0424
0.83*0.0025 / (0.83*0.0025 + 0.047*0.9975)
P(+, Down) / (P(+, Down) + P(+, not Down))
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Bayes’ Theorem
P(B|A) = P(A|B) · P(B)
P(A)
P(B|A) =P(A|B) · P(B)
P(A|B) · P(B) + P(A|not B) · P(not B)
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1% prevalence
99% accurate test
positive result means risk of
Simplistic example
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1% prevalence
99% accurate test
positive result means risk of 50%
Simplistic example
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In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
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In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
1. If you were the judgewhat other probabilityyou would want to know?
2. Would you convict her?
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In 1999 Sally Clark was accused for murdering her2 children after she sequentially claimed thatthey died in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).
The probability of SIDS is 1 in 8500.
1. If you were the judgewhat other probabilityyou would want to know?
2. Would you convict her?
3. Do you think she was convicted?
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