![Page 1: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science
M. LeachMay 4, 2011
![Page 2: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Models and Uncertainty
• Surface Temperature• Clouds• Water Vapor• Ice
![Page 3: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Consensus vs. Minority
Consensus• Earth is warming• Warming is Human Induced• Certainty about the first two• Leads some to propose
mitigation technologies that we discussed last time
Minority• Earth is warming• Not clear that it is human
induced• Models used are full of
uncertainty• Thinks that society is
overreacting
![Page 4: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Some Prominent (science) skeptics
Richard Lindzen, Professor, MITJohn Christy, Professor, UAHRoger Pielke, Sr. Professor, CSU and CUBill Cotton, Professor, CSURoy Spencer, UAH and NASA
![Page 5: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Criteria for any Technological Fix
1. The technology must embody a cause-effect relationship
2. The effects of the technological fix must be assessable
3. Research and development must focus on improvement
![Page 6: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Politics mixing with science
• During the GWB admininstration, James Hansen, NASA (i.e. US Govt) scientist was warned against speaking to the media.
• There have been ad hominem attacks against scientists questioning their motives (and therefore their character). – This occurs on both “sides”, but appears to be more
inclusive against the skeptics
![Page 7: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Books
• The Assault on Reason, Al Gore• The Republican War on Science, Chris Mooney
• Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor, Roy Spencer
• Climategate: A Veteran Meteorologist Exposes the Global Warming Scam, Brian Sussman
![Page 8: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Moulin
![Page 9: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Dynamics of a Moulin
![Page 10: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Leads and Polynya
![Page 11: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Leads and Polynyas
Temperature
Heat Flux
![Page 12: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Hydrologic Cycle
![Page 13: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Clouds and Precipitation
![Page 14: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Models
![Page 15: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Uncertainty in the Models
• The problems “are so complex that it may take many decades, or even centuries (If ever!) before we have matured enough as a scientific community to make credible predictions of long-term climate trends and their corresponding regional impacts” William Cotton and Roger Pielke Sr. (CSU)
![Page 16: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Model Progress in the last Decade
• Model resolution• Cloud feedbacks• El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)• Aerosol processes• Land surface (carbon cycling, soil moisture,
multilayer snow models)• Sea-ice dynamics
![Page 17: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
But uncertainty persists
• Clouds• Clouds• Clouds• Water Vapor• Ice sheet dynamics• Glaciers and ice caps• Ocean upwelling
![Page 18: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Other GCM Issues
• Tuning• Incompleteness
– Polar amplification– Polar stratification and Ozone depletion– Propagating Impacts of Changes in the Stratopshere– Moulins and Sea Level Rise– Sources of Methane– Underestimating vs. Overestimating Climate Change
• Climate Sensitivity in the models
![Page 19: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Data Limitations and Climate Complexity
• Maybe the source of much of the controversy– Too short (e.g. satellites, thermometers)– Too incomplete spatially (e.g. ice cores)– Too lacking in consistency (space and time)
• Tree rings• Ice cores• Ocean sediments• Thermometers and satellites
![Page 20: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Social Pressures
• Polar Sea Ice• Balanced Presentations• Peer Review• Politicians and Political Views entering the discussion• Scientists trying to influence policy
– acc
• Media issues
![Page 21: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The Ethics in the Debate
1. If we accept the IPCC conclusion that we are harming the environment and therefore our descendants
2. We benefited tremendously from our ancestors; we have a debt to our descendants
3. We have a personal stake in the future; our descendants will be the earthly judges of the value of our lives
![Page 22: Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062521/5681668f550346895dda64e8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Some Simple Actions
1. A little discomfort2. Public transportation
a. Individual: take itb. Societal: improve it
3. Locally grown produce4. Less meat5. Fluorescent Lighting