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CONTENTS
p2 Has Private or Public Housing Performed Better?
p6 New Book Timing the Property Market
p10 Singapore Property News This Week
p15 Resale Property Transactions
(September 26 October 2)
Welcome to the 73th edition
of the Singapore Property
Weekly.
Hope you like it!
Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
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Has Private or Public Housing Performed Better?
By Mr. Propwise
With more than 80% of the resident
population in Singapore being housed in
Housing Development Board (HDB) flats, the
supply and pricing of public housing is a
significant factor that affects the demand for
and hence pricing of private housing. In this
article we will look at the relative price
performance of private (as represented by the
URA Private Residential PPI) and public (as
represented by the HDB Resale Price Index)housing.
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From Figure 2.2.1a, we can see that the
Private PPI had massively outperformed theHDB Resale Price Index (RPI) until the end of
1994, when the outperformance rapidly
contracted. Since then, it has moved largely in
line with the HDB RPI, but in a more volatile
fashion. As of 2012Q2 the PPI stood at 206.9
versus the HDB RPI of 194.
Except for a sharp spike in the HDB ResalePrice Index in 1993Q2-Q3 as the government
moved to market-based pricing for public
housing, HDB prices have tended to be
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less volatile (especially on the downside)
versus the Private PPI (Figure 2.2.1b). In
2012Q2, the PPI rose by 0.4% while the HDB
Resale Price Index had a 1.3% gain.
The premium of the URA PPI has fallen from
close to 100% in the early 1990s to 6.6% in
2012Q2, way below the historical average of
34.9% (since 1990Q1), making HDB flats look
relatively expensive versus private property on
a historical comparison.
Looking at the compounded annual growthrates
Another way to look at this issue is to
calculate the compounded annualized growth
rates of the PPI versus the HDB Resale Price
Index. Over a 22-year period from 1990Q1 to
2012Q2, the PPI gained 5.8% per year versusthe HDB Resale Price Index which gained
7.9% per year. Thus it is clear that HDB flats
have appreciated significantly more than
private property during this time period.
The issue is that given where the relative
affordability of private property versus HDB
flats is currently, the same might no longer
hold true fortodays buyers of public housing.
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Certainly there are quality differences to be
taken into account (HDB flats today are
almost of a similar quality to private property,
except without facilities), but it should no
longer be an automatic assumption that HDB
flats will continue to outperform private
property as they have in the past two
decades.
This article is adapted from Timing the
Property Market Invest Profitably inSingapore Real Estate By Using Market
Cycles and Insights, a new book by Mr.
Propwise.
http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/ -
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New Book Timing the Property Market
By Mr. Propwise If youre interested in profitable propertyinvestment, youd want to know the best time
to enter and exit the market; the most
attractive areas and projects to invest in;
whether to buy residential or non-residential,
freehold or leasehold, landed or non-
landed and youd have many more suchquestions.
The problem Ive found is that there are very
few good and objective sources of
information available to help property
investors make good decisions. Just reading
news reports can be very confusing one
moment you hear about the record prices set
at a new launch, the next you hear about the
huge upcoming supply crashing prices.
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As one reader put it, were always constantly
on the verge of prices going both up and
down!
You also cannot (and should not) rely solely
on what your property agent tells you. While
there are many honest professional agents
out there, lets be realistic and say they have
an inherent conflict of interest they make
their money by getting you to transact, not by
helping you to make a good decision.
That was one of the main reasons why I
started Propwise.sg, a Singapore property
blog dedicated to helping you understand the
real estate market and make better buying,
selling, renting and investing decisions. You
can find most of the basic knowledge youneed to get started there.
Introducing Timing the Property Market
Timing the Property Market Invest Profitably
in Singapore Real Estate By Using Market
Cycles and Insights takes it up a notch by
doing a deep dive into the real estate data to
help property investors time their property
purchases for maximum profit and minimumdownside. Most of the charts and data are
taken from PropertyMarketInsights.com, a
web-based research and analysis
membership site that covers all segments of
the Singapore property market.
PropertyMarketInsights.coms goal is to helpbuyers and sellers make profitable investment
decisions by providing them with
professional-level analysis at a very
reasonable cost.
This book is split into six sections covering:
Overall Market Analysis
Non-Landed Residential Property
Landed Residential Property
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 73
http://propwise.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propwise.sg/http://propwise.sg/http://propwise.sg/ -
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Residential Areas and Projects
Commercial and Industrial Property
Finding Attractive Property Investments
I believe that even seasoned property
investors will learn a thing or two by reading
this book, as Ive not seen some of the
analyses in this book done anywhere else. By
timing your property investment at the right
part of the cycle, you can avoid costly
mistakes that could set you back years, and
potentially add hundreds of thousands of
dollars to your net worth.
On a personal note, Id like to thank all
readers of Propwise.sg for your continuedsupport over the past two years. Going
forward, we have exciting plans lined up for
more interesting content and also bringing on
other expert voices in the property market. I
sincerely hope that this site and its contenthave been helpful to you.
Click here to read a sample chapter and to
buy the e-book version ofTiming the Property
Market. Published by Aktive Learning, thepaperback version will be available at major
bookstores by late October and retails at
S$28 + GST. AllPropertyMarketInsights.com
subscribers will get a FREE e-book copy of
this book.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 73
http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://aktive.com.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://aktive.com.sg/http://aktive.com.sg/http://aktive.com.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/ -
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Singapore Property This Week
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ResidentialGood turnout at show flats
Potential buyers are undeterred by new
cooling measures as evident by the good
traffic at show flats of newly launched
projects such as Riversails at UpperSerangoon View and Skies Miltonia at
Yishun. Over 300 units at Allgreen Properties'
920-unit Riversails have been sold, with at
least 20 units sold over the weekend. 67% of
units at the 420-unit Skies Miltonia have also
been sold. This reflects the positivesentiment in the market.
(Source: Business Times)
Good Class Bungalow transactionvolumes fall in Q3
Transactions volume in GCBAs fell from 18
transactions at $358.8 million in Q2 to 14
transactions at $285.1 million in Q3. The
recent cooling measures (cap on housing
loan tenure, lower LTV ratio) are unlikely to
have an impact on GCB buyers who tends to
be high-net worth individuals. The slowdown
in Q3 could be due to the pent-up demand
being fulfilled in Q2, or a residual effect of the
SSD introduced early in 2011.The current
transaction volume year-to-date stands at 41
transactions at $868 million and may hit 50 to
55 transactions totalling $1 billion
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to $1.1 billion by end-2012 if there are three
to four GCBs deals each month. Prices are
expected to remain stable.
(Source: Business Times)
Adjacent Chee Hoon freehold GCB
parcels up for sale
The two adjacent land parcels (18,989 sq ft
and 26,166 sq ft) located at Jalan Asuhan, off
University Road in the Chee Hoon Avenue
Good Class Bungalow Area are asking for
$1,600-$1,800 psf or $72.2 million to $81.3
million by private treaty. Buyers have the
option of purchasing one or both parcels,
which offers a panoramic view since it is one
of the highest points in the area. It is
accessible via Dunearn, Bukit Timah and
Adam roads.
(Source: Business Times)
99-year leasehold Woodlands EC site
attract $150.2m top bid
The site at Woodlands Avenue 6 and
Woodlands Drive 16 drew a top bid of
$150.18 million, or $302 psf ppr from a 70-30
Opal Star - Binjai Holdings joint venture,
beating out four other bidders. The plan is to
build eight 12-storey residential blocks with a
total of 447 units consisting of mainly three-
and four-bedroom units. The estimated
breakeven cost and selling price are $600-
650 psf and $680-730 psf respectively.
(Source: Business Times)
HSR: residential prices to slow in Q4, but
unlikely to fall in next 12 months
Before the announcement of the 35-year cap
on loan tenures and lower LTV ratios, HDB
resale prices and private non-landed homes
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prices are expected to increase by 2-2.5%
and 0.8% next quarter respectively. However,
with the introduction of the new cooling
measures, these will fall to a 0.5% and 0-
0.5% increase respectively. While prices areunlikely to fall given the low interest rate and
market liquidity, sales may slow as some
buyers (though a negligible umber) are priced
out by the higher monthly instalments from
the lower loan tenure, and other buyers
postpone buying until the market correctsitself.
(Source: Business Times)
Commercial
Prime office rents slip further even as
vacancies fall
Despite the fall in Grade A vacancies from
7.9% in Q2 to 6.8% in Q3 (11.8% to 9.8% in
Marina Bay sub-market; 1.5% to 2% in
Orchard Road), the overall Grade A rent
declined by 3.6% to $9.13 psf in Q3, with the
biggest fall of 2.5% and 3.9% in Marina Bay
and Raffles Place respectively. Rents in the
City Hall and Marina Centre vicinity declined1.8%. The fall in vacancies is encouraging
given the slower economic growth and
uncertain global economy and despite the
falling rental rates, the decline is slower than
in the first half of the year. While a further fall
in vacancies that would help to stabilise rentsin the CBD is expected, the upcoming 1.2
million sq ft of vacant space over the next 6
months would prevent short-term recovery.
(Source: Business Times)
Increasing resale prices of industrialspace points to speculation
Resale industrial prices for first-storey
conventional industrial space and
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upper-storey industrial space climbed 4% to
$600 psf and 3.5% to $445 psf in Q3 from Q2
respectively while rents for the former and the
latter remained stable at $2.15 psf per month
and $1.75 psf per month respectively. Hi-techindustrial rents increased slightly by 0.07%
from Q2 to $3 psf per month in Q3. The
increasing resale prices points to an increase
in speculation in the industrial property sector,
which may be due to the lack of a seller's
stamp duty for commercial properties thatimposes a penalty on buyers who sell their
units within a short period of time, and the
lower overall quantum of such properties.
Furthermore, there are more investors
shifting from residential to industrial
properties since they have the highest yieldsand interest remains low, thus offering high
returns. While some believes that the market
is not overheated yet and does not need
more cooling measures, citing increased
demand and better locations as alternative
reasons for rising prices, others suggests that
speculation crowding out genuine
industrialists may lead to the government
introducing measures such as seller's stampduty or limits to the LTV ratio.
(Source: Business Times)
Business park sector to remain stable
The average rents for business and science
parks in Q3 2012 are $3.70 psf per month,the same as Q2 while the vacancy rates
slipped from 7.5% in Q2 to 6.9% in Q3. This
is due to the companies high pre-
commitment to the upcoming space, the
relocation of MNCs from the CBD to business
parks seeking lower rental rates. This sector
is expected remain stable for the next three to
six months with lease renewals, tenant
upgrades from old to newer buildings,
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despite an upcoming 1.04 million sq ft NLA in
Q4 since 71% of the upcoming space are pre-
committed.
(Source: Business Times)
Jalan Sultan mixed-use site draws
$331.34m top bid
The 0.84 hectare site zoned for hotel
development or commercial and residential
development and located at the corner ofJalan Sultan and Victoria Street attracted a
top bid of $331.34 million, or $993.71 psf ppr
from Forward Land, beating out eight other
bids. The top bid is 8.3% higher than the next
highest bid. 60% of the 333,433 sq ft
maximum allowable GFA which can generatearound 650 hotel rooms will be for hotel use
with the rest for commercial purpose, in line
with URAs guidelines for hotel development.
Some thought the bid aggressive but
estimates the 5% net yield based on a
$460,000 breakeven cost per hotel room and
current room rates at V Hotel Lavender, a
hotel under Forward Land. Furthermore, hotel
room rates for this segment are expected to
improve, and demand to come from benefit
from sports tourism with the completion of
Sports Hub in the future. Others however
thought the bid reasonable for its location and
permitted uses, being located near Lavender
MRT station and a few stops from the city
centre with nearby amenities.
(Source: Business Times)
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Sep 26 Oct 2
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
2 THE BEACON 1,109 1,550,000 1,398 99
2 THE BEACON 1,163 1,530,000 1,316 99
3 CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM 1,292 1,630,000 1,262 99
3 EMERALD PARK 926 1,030,000 1,113 99
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 1,249 1,900,000 1,522 99
5 VENTANA 1,270 1,590,000 1,252 FH
5 DOVER PARKVIEW 936 970,000 1,036 99
5 VILLA DE WEST 1,012 1,025,000 1,013 FH
7 BURLINGTON SQUARE 667 918,000 1,376 99
8 CITYLIGHTS 721 1,226,000 1,700 99
8 MERA SPRINGS 1,550 2,080,000 1,342 FH
8 KERRISDALE 1,259 1,510,000 1,199 99
8 URBAN LOFTS 786 930,000 1,184 FH
9 PATERSON SUITES 1,679 4,790,000 2,853 FH
9 SCOTTS 28 1,733 4,028,888 2,325 FH
9 THE TRILLIUM 1,399 3,217,700 2,299 FH
9 RIVERIA GARDENS 1,432 2,960,000 2,068 FH
9 URBANA 1,313 2,626,000 2,000 FH
9 THE INSPIRA 936 1,860,000 1,986 FH
9 CAIRNHILL CREST 1,733 3,300,000 1,904 FH
9 TRIBECA 1,378 2,500,000 1,814 FH
9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,324 2,118,000 1,600 999
9 WATERFORD RESIDENCE 1,044 1,630,000 1,561 999
9 UE SQUARE 1,055 1,635,250 1,550 929
10 ORION 1,776 4,100,000 2,308 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
10 J C DRAYCOTT 850 1,800,000 2,117 FH
10 CUSCADEN RESIDENCES 1,496 3,150,000 2,105 FH
10 ORION 1,507 3,080,000 2,044 FH
10 SOMMERVILLE PARK 624 1,080,000 1,730 FH
10 SHANGHAI ONE 560 880,000 1,572 FH
10 JERVOIS LODGE 1,238 1,940,000 1,567 FH
10 KASTURINA LODGE 797 1,218,000 1,529 FH
10 WARNER COURT 1,195 1,760,000 1,473 FH
10 VILLAGE TOWER 1,830 2,600,000 1,421 FH
10 GLENTREES 1,991 2,800,000 1,406 999
10 DORMER PARK 1,238 1,700,000 1,373 FH
10 OLINA LODGE 1,281 1,750,000 1,366 FH
10 THE SIERRA 1,206 1,510,000 1,253 947
11 SKY@ELEVEN 2,713 4,612,100 1,700 FH
11 THE LINCOLN RESIDENCES 1,841 3,059,000 1 ,662 FH
11 THOMSON EURO-ASIA 1,130 1,830,000 1,619 FH
11 ADAM PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,173 1,410,000 1,202 FH
11 MINBU COURT 1,270 1,380,000 1,086 FH
12 DE ROYALE 1,281 1,730,000 1,351 FH
12 PARC HAVEN 452 590,000 1,305 FH
12 ONE ST MICHAEL'S 1,259 1,478,000 1,174 FH
12 RIO GARDENS 947 985,000 1,040 FH
12 ROCCA BALESTIER 1,109 1,108,000 999 FH
13 ONE LEICESTER 1,249 1,600,000 1,281 FH
13 WAN THO LODGE 1,152 1,068,000 927 FH
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Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
14 ATRIUM RESIDENCES 1,819 1,280,000 704 FH
15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,604 2,620,000 1,634 FH
15 MEYER RESIDENCE 904 1,370,000 1,515 FH
15 THE COTZ 452 660,000 1,460 FH
15 ONE AMBER 1,259 1,780,000 1,413 FH
15 SANCTUARY GREEN 1,141 1,400,000 1,227 99
15 HAIG COURT 1,442 1,730,000 1,199 FH
15 COSTA ESTE 861 955,000 1,109 FH
15 SANDALWOOD 1,184 1,200,000 1,013 FH
15 AMBER RESIDENCES 5,113 5,113,000 1,000 FH
15 PARK EAST 1,722 1,720,000 999 FH
15 COSTA RHU 1,399 1,364,327 975 99
15 PARK COURT 926 868,000 938 FH
15 THE GERANIUM 1,701 1,540,000 906 FH15 PINEHURST CONDOMINIUM 1,302 1,180,000 906 FH
15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,150,000 905 99
15 MARSHALL LODGE 1,776 1,600,000 901 FH
15 MARSHALL LODGE 1,776 1,570,000 884 FH
15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,070,000 842 99
15 D' FRESCO 2,928 2,350,000 803 FH
15 PALM VISTA 1,927 1,535,000 797 FH
15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,000,000 787 99
16 CASA MERAH 1,572 1,750,000 1,114 9916 THE BAYSHORE 1,184 1,270,000 1,073 99
16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 995,000 1,063 99
16 THE BAYSHORE 1,184 1,218,000 1,029 99
16 LUCKY COURT 1,302 1,280,000 983 FH
16 CHANGI COURT 969 950,000 981 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
16 LAGUNA GREEN 1,550 1,515,000 977 99
16 THE BAYSHORE 1,023 934,000 913 99
16 THE TANAMERA 1,324 1,138,000 860 99
17 CARISSA PARK CONDOMINIUM 624 670,000 1,073 FH
17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,356 1,350,000 995 FH
17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,378 1,260,000 915 FH
17 ESTELLA GARDENS 1,292 1,060,000 821 FH
17 AZALEA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1,055,000 790 999
18 LIVIA 883 888,000 1,006 99
18 THE TROPICA 990 884,000 893 99
18 THE TROPICA 1,238 1,075,000 868 99
18 CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM 1,259 1 ,070,000 850 99
18 MELVILLE PARK 958 740,000 772 99
18 TAMPINES COURT 1,679 1,070,000 637 10118 ELIAS GREEN 1,528 970,000 635 99
19 STADIA 861 1,018,000 1,182 FH
19 FONTAINE PARRY 1,206 1,390,000 1,153 999
19 T HE SPRINGBLOOM 1,119 1,170,000 1,045 99
19 COMPASS HEIGHTS 1,249 1,150,000 921 99
19 SIMON PLAZA 1,615 1,400,000 867 FH
19 REGENTVILLE 1,152 960,000 834 99
19 THE SPRINGBLOOM 1,873 1,560,000 833 99
19 CASA ROSA 2,045 1,500,000 733 9919 CHERRY GARDENS 2,110 1,475,000 699 99
20 COUNTRY GRANDEUR 1,442 1,750,000 1,213 FH
20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,405,000 1,209 99
20 GRANDEUR 8 1,109 1,100,000 992 99
20 SIN MING PLAZA 2,131 1,750,000 821 FH
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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,378 1,100,000 798 99
20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,798 1,410,000 784 99
20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,798 1,400,000 779 99
20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,152 895,000 777 99
21 THE CASCADIA 883 1,525,000 1,728 FH
21 THE CASCADIA 990 1,627,000 1,643 FH
21 MAPLEWOODS 1,787 2,500,000 1,399 FH
21 FREESIA WOODS 1,421 1,788,000 1,258 FH
21 THE HILLSIDE 1,044 1,120,000 1,073 FH
21 ROYAL COURT 1,055 1,090,000 1,033 FH
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,399 1,364,000 975 FH
22 THE CENTRIS 872 1,027,780 1,179 99
22 THE LAKESHORE 1,109 1,220,000 1,100 99
22 THE LAKESHORE 1,119 1,220,000 1,090 99
22 PARC VISTA 1,076 980,000 910 99
22 PARC VISTA 1,270 1,000,000 787 99
23 ESPA 904 980,000 1,084 999
23 HILLVIEW PARK 1,227 1,200,000 978 FH
23 THE WARREN 1,356 1,300,000 959 99
23 HILLVIEW 128 1,055 908,888 862 999
23 HILLVIEW APARTMENTS 1,206 980,000 813 FH
23 HILLTOP GROVE 1,238 980,000 792 99
23 NORTHVALE 1,518 1,090,000 718 99
23 REGENT GROVE 1,550 1,085,000 700 9923 NORTHVALE 1,658 1,020,000 615 99
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