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Issue 202Copyright © 2011-2014 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS
p2 6 Changes in the URA Property Price
Index and Why They Matter
p6 Singapore Property News This Week
p10 Resale Property Transactions
(March 18 – March 24 )
Welcome to the 202th edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly .
Hope you like it!
Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
mailto:[email protected]://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/mailto:[email protected]
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By Property Soul (Guest Contributor)
If you have a good memory, you may recall
that I have wrote to The Straits Times Forum
in December last year with a letter titled
“Public deserves reliable, consistent data”. In
the URA’s reply, they mentioned they wereworking towards making improvements to the
property market data and would release the
net prices of individual units sold by
developers on their website in the first half of
2015.
On April Fool’s Day, the URA finally
announced the improved the computation
methodology of their PPI (Property Price
Index) to better reflect price changes
6 Changes in the URA Property Price Index and Why They Matter
http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/http://propertysoul.com/2014/12/26/uras-reply/
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in private residential market. This is first
reflected in the release of the flash estimate
for the 1st Quarter 2015.
6 changes in the new PPI According to URA’s press release on 1 April
2015, the long-awaited PPI revision (their last
revision was in 2000) covers six major
changes:
1. Property Attributes
Besides location, tenure, property type and
completion status, the PPI will now take into
consideration the property attributes (e.g.
size, age) and micro-location (e.g. proximity
to the MRT station).
2. Tracking Methodology
To account for differences in housing
characteristics, from now on, the PPI is
calculated based on the Stratified Hedonic
Regression Method instead of the previous
Stratification Method.
3. Weighted Average
The usual 12-quarter moving average weightsnow become 5-quarter fixed weights.
4. Base Year
The base period has been changed from
4Q1998 to 1Q2009.
5. Data Source
Apart from caveats lodged and new units sold
by developers, data sources now include
stamp duty transactions from the Inland
Revenue Authority of Singapore.
6. Price Indices
URA will show price trends on a broad rather
than micro or localized level. From 1st
Quarter 2015, only the following property
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price indices will be published:
- Residential Properties
- Landed Residential Properties
- Non-Landed Residential Properties
- Non-Landed Residential Properties in Core
Central Region, Rest of Central Region and
Outside Central Region
If one compares these PPIs with the previous
indices, sub-categories like completion status(completed vs uncompleted) and property
type (Apartment, Condominium, Detached,
Semi-detached and Terrace) have not been
mentioned. The picture will be clearer when
the full set of 1Q2015 price indices are out in
4 weeks’ time.
Implications behind the changes
What are the implications for the
improvement of URA’s PPI?
1. More comprehensive coverage and
higher representation
In the past, only data from the Singapore
Land Authority was accounted for, even
though lodging caveats with SLA is on a
voluntary basis. Furthermore, survey data on
new units sold for uncompleted projects rely
on honest contributions by property
developers.
Since buyers of all properties have to paybuyer stamp duty, it should theoretically be
possible to capture all private housing
transactions. The expanded data collection
source to cover stamp duty payments is
definitely more comprehensive.
2. More meaningful comparisons among
projects
Property prices of various projects, though in
the same district,
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can differ significantly depending on their
actual location, age of the property, etc. With
the addition of more property attributes like
micro-location and size or age of the
transacted unit, the public is able to make
more meaningful comparisons of the pricing
data.
3. Increased difficulty to compare with
past data
With the base period 4Q1998 shifted to1Q2009, and 12-quarter moving average
weights changed to 5-quarter fixed weights,
the PPI now puts more emphasis on price
comparisons for the last few years rather than
over the past decades.
With the changes in tracking methodology, it
is now increasingly difficult to make apple-to-
apple comparisons with the old set of PPI
data.
What’s next?
URA’s written reply to my letter dated Dec 23,2014had promised the release of the net
prices of individual units sold by developers in
the first half of next year. The public is looking
forward to see the actual transacted prices of
units bought directly from developers, less all
the stamp duty absorption, subsidies, rebatesand incentives offered.
By guest contributor Property Soul, a
successful property investor, blogger , and
author of the No B.S. Guide to Property
Investment.
http://propertysoul.com/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://aktive.com.sg/store/no-b-s-guide-to-property-investment/http://propertysoul.com/
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Singapore Property This Week
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Residential
G C B m e d i a n p r i c e i n c r e a s e b y 3 5 % f r o m
2010 to 2014
According to ERA Realty, the median psf
price of good class bungalows (GCB)
increased by 35 percent from $1,107 psf to$1,490 psf from 2010 to 2014. However, the
annual number of GCB transactions fell from
80 to 15 units. ERA said that GCB sellers are
generally not affected by market changes as
they are not under pressure to sell their
houses. Henry Lim from ERA added that thishas caused sellers to hold their properties
until prices reach their expectations. As such,
the supply of GCBs fell by 10 percent in the
last year. Yet, William Wong from RealStar
Premier Group said that he predicts homeprices will fall by another 2 to 3 percent by the
end of this year.
(Source: Business Times)
Feb’s c o n d o p r i c e s f e l l b y 0 . 3 % m o n t h - o n -
m o n t h
According to the National University of
Singapore Institute of Real Estate Studies,
the prices of completed private non-landed
homes have fallen by 0.3 percent in February
from January. This is a 5 percent drop in the
NUS Singapore Residential Price Index from
the same period in 2014. In February, the
sub-index for the central region fell by 0.7
month-on-month; while the sub-index for
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small units of up to 506 sq ft fell by 0.2
percent month-on-month during the same
period. Eugene Lim from ERA Realty believes
that there will be a 5 to 8 percent drop in
prices for the whole of this year. Ku SweeYong from Century21 added that developers
may have to cut prices in order to attract
buyers.
(Source: Business Times)
P ri v at e r es i d en t ia l p r o pe rt y p r ic e i n d ex r e vise d b y U R A
URA has revised its private residential
property price index (PPI) to include sales
data from stamp duty submissions to the tax
authority. The new PPI will cover all private
home transactions. According to the Business
Times, this new methodology will improve the
sensitivity of the index to market changes.
This methodology is also similar to that used
by HDB for the HDB resale price index. Under
the new method, transacted units are
grouped based on property types before price
change over time is computed. Fixed index
weights are assigned to these groups. Market
experts believe that the new method will allowthem to price properties better.
(Source: Business Times)
U RA : P ri vat e h o m e p ri ces f al l b y 1.1%
quarter-on-quarter
The revised PPI showed that there was a 1.1
percent quarter-on-quarter fall in prices in Q1
this year from Q4 2014. This is the 6th
consecutive quarter that prices have fallen.
Landed properties experienced a 1.1 percent
fall in prices in Q1 this year while non-landed
properties also experienced a 1.1 percent fall
in the same time period. The fall in prices was
more substantial in the Rest of Central
Region for non-landed residential properties
according to flash estimates according
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to flash estimates by URA as prices fell 1.8
percent quarter-on-quarter for in Q1 this year.
Non-landed homes in the Outside of Central
Region experienced a 0.9 percent fall while
those in the Core Central Region saw a 0.6percent fall in the same time period. Ong Teck
Hui from JLL believes that prices may fall by
1 to 2 percent each quarter in 2015. Sellers
who are pressured into selling may cut prices
even further, Ong added. Eugene Lim from
ERA Realty agrees with Ong and predictedthat there will be a 5 to 8 percent fall in prices
for the whole year.
(Source: Business Times)
Q 1 H D B r e s a l e p r i c e s f e l l b y 1 % q u a r t e r -
o n - q u a r t e r
HDB resale prices have fallen by 1% in Q1
2015 from the preceding quarter, according to
HDB. According to Nicholas Mak from SLP
International, the resale price index in the last
7 quarters has fallen by a total of 9.2 percent.
Nonetheless, the fall in the price index in Q1
this year is the smallest in the last 1.5 years,
said Mak. However, Mak believes that the fall
in prices will continue unless coolingmeasures are lifted. Not only so, the increase
in BTO and Sale of Balance Flat supplies has
negatively impacted the resale market. Mak
predicts that HDB resale prices will fall by 4 to
6 percent this year, and Ismail Gafoor from
PropNex estimates that the HDB resalevolumes will range from 19,000 to 20,000
units this year.
(Source: Business Times)
U R A : U n ev e n p r i c e f a l l s f o r c o n d o s
10 out of 46 condo projects saw double-digit
declines in median prices this year, compared
to prices in 2013, according to a study by
URA on private non-landed home prices.
However, only 2 projects in the city centre
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saw price declines of over 20 percent this
year. According to the URA study, the large
price falls appears to be confined to a few
projects. Particularly, ultra-luxury condos saw
a 12.4 percent fall in average prices in thelast year according to a study by Knight
Frank. Higher price properties saw a greater
fall in prices because of the weak market
sentiments and the increase in supply of
completed units for certain types of condos,
said Alice Tan from Knight Frank.
(Source: Business Times)
Commercial
S u b l e tt i n g o f i n d u s t r i al l a n d i s b a n n e d
To ensure that Singapore’s industrial landspaces are used more productively, HDB has
revised its subletting policy in line with JTC
Corporation’s policy. Currently, tenants of
HDB industrial properties can lease out up to
50 percent of their factory floor space.
However, new and existing tenants of HDB
industrial properties will not be allowed to
sublet their units from June 1 onward. The
maximum allowable sublet quantum for other end-user lessees and third-party facility
providers have also been cut from 50 to 30
percent of the gross floor area. Tenants with
existing approved subletting arrangements
will be allowed to renew their subletting
agreements up to Dec 31, 2017. NicholasMak from SLP International said that due to
the policy changes, subtenants may have to
relocate. This may marginally increase
occupancy levels in the private industrial
market. However, the changes may mean
that industrial tenants may have less flexibilityto rescale their space, said Chia Siew Chuin
from Colliers.
(Source: Business Times)
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Mar 18 – Mar 24
NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchasersigns an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
1 MARINA BAY SUITES 2,056 4,680,000 2,276 99
1 PEOPLE'S PARK COMPLEX 1,119 880,000 786 993 RIVER PLACE 1,722 2,120,000 1,231 99
5 THE PARC CONDOMINIUM 1,518 2,000,000 1,318 FH
5 MONTEREY PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,302 1,480,000 1,136 999
5 PALM GREEN 1,098 1,035,000 943 FH
7 BURLINGTON SQUARE 1,119 1,439,000 1,285 99
8 CITIGATE RESIDENCE 570 755,000 1,323 FH
9 THE LAURELS 1,302 3,150,150 2,419 FH
9 THE TRILLIUM 1,399 2,660,000 1,901 FH
10 STEVEN'S COURT 2,863 3,500,000 1,222 FH
10 JERVOIS MEADOWS 2,024 2,000,000 988 FH
10 DUCHESS CREST 1,345 1,758,000 1,307 99
11 PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM 1,464 2,855,000 1,950 FH
11 PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM 1,442 2,700,000 1,872 FH
11 ADAM PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,216 1,550,000 1 ,274 FH
14 SIMS GREEN 958 855,000 892 99
15 PEBBLE BAY 2,217 3,200,000 1,443 99
15 ONE AMBER 1,701 2,380,000 1,399 FH
15 THE BELVEDERE 1,238 1,820,000 1,470 FH
15 LAGUNA PARK 1,615 1,380,000 855 99
15 SANCTUARY GREEN 1,152 1,360,000 1,181 99
15 VILLA MARINA 1,249 1,280,000 1,025 99
15 MANDARIN GARDEN CONDOMINIUM 1,001 1,080,000 1,079 99
15 MOUNTBATTEN SUITES 441 690,000 1,563 FH
16 RICH EAST GARDEN 2,411 2,250,000 933 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
16 OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH 2,271 1,910,000 841 99
16 EAST MEADOWS 1,206 1,100,000 912 9917 EDELWEISS PARK CONDOMINIUM 3,197 2,000,000 626 FH
17 ESTELLA GARDENS 1,292 1,088,888 843 FH
18 OASIS @ ELIAS 980 888,000 907 99
19 EVERGREEN PARK 1,076 880,000 818 99
20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,572 1,460,000 929 99
20 CENTRO RESIDENCES 818 1,228,000 1,501 99
21 THE RAINTREE 1,292 1,250,000 968 99
23 PARK NATURA 1,744 1,900,000 1,090 FH
23 TREE HOUSE 1,561 1,720,000 1,102 99
23 HILLVIEW HEIGHTS 1,668 1,580,000 947 FH
23 HILLVISTA 1,292 1,535,000 1,188 FH
23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,658 1,480,000 893 999
23 HILLVIEW REGENCY 1,109 970,000 875 99
23 REGENT GROVE 1,259 928,000 737 99
23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,023 820,000 802 99
26 BULLION PARK 807 798,000 988 FH
27 SUN PLAZA 1,345 1,048,000 779 99
27 EUPHONY GARDENS 1,184 823,000 695 9 9
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