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WELCOME
SIMIQ4 Motor Industry Review
In association with DoneDeal
2nd February 2015
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IntroductionAlan Nolan
Director General
SIMI
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Q4 ReviewIndustry
Perspective
James Brooks
SIMI President
MD of KIA Ireland
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SIMI DoneDeal 2014 Motor Industry Perspective
• New car sales up 30%
• Light Commercial vehicles up 51%
• Employment up 10% (41,600)
• €1Billion in taxes from car sales
• Over 5 Billion taxes collected by Industry
• Cost of motoring down on 2013
• Consumer confidence up
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Motor Industry Outlook 2015
• New Car Sales up 31% in January
• LCVs up 70%, HGVs down 37%
• Busses up 32%, Motorcycles up 8%
• Industry projection for year 115,000
• Ageing Car Parc: – 40% 5-10yrs
– 33% over 10yrs
• 689,258 cars failed NCT in 2014– 36% of cars on the roads failed!
• Need to maintain vehicles
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Motor Industry Outlook 2015
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Q4 ReviewExplained
Jim Power
Review Author & Economist
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SIMI Motor Industry Review
Q4 2014
JimPower
Feb 2nd 2015
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The Global Background• US economy doing well
• UK economy doing well
• Euro Zone struggling ~ recession or ‘euro-sclerosis’?
• Euro Zone bank stress test a hurdle cleared in 2014
• Quantitative easing in EZ strong, but impact likely to be
limited – move away from fiscal austerity?
• Greek uncertainties
• Limited pressure on US & UK interest rates later in 2015 –
no pressure whatsoever on ECB
• Key issues – Sovereign Debt, Unemployment &
Deflationary Forces in Euro Zone
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Key Developments in Irish Economy in 2014
• Strong growth in first 3/4of year GDP +4.9%
• Retail Sales Volume +6.3%: Value +4.1%
• Ex-Cars Value +1.6%: Volume +3.7% #Car Sales +29.5%
• Merchandise exports +1.2% (Jan-Nov)
• Employment +27,700 +1.5% (Year to end-Sept)
• Public finances improving – still borrowing too much
• Credit conditions still tight – demand & supply issues
• Construction activity rebounding strongly
• Strong tourism performance +8.6% Overseas Visitors
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Economic Activity (Q1-Q3)
% YoY
GDP +4.9%
GNP +4.7%
Consumption +0.6%
Gov. Expenditure +2.4%
Investment +10.6%
Exports Goods & Services +12.0%
Imports Goods & Services +11.2%
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Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-8
3
Oct-
83
Jul-8
4
Apr-
85
Jan-8
6
Oct-
86
Jul-8
7
Apr-
88
Jan-8
9
Oct-
89
Jul-9
0
Apr-
91
Jan-9
2
Oct-
92
Jul-9
3
Apr-
94
Jan-9
5
Oct-
95
Jul-9
6
Apr-
97
Jan-9
8
Oct-
98
Jul-9
9
Apr-
00
Jan-0
1
Oct-
01
Jul-0
2
Apr-
03
Jan-0
4
Oct-
04
Jul-0
5
Apr-
06
Jan-0
7
Oct-
07
Jul-0
8
Apr-
09
Jan-1
0
Oct-
10
Jul-1
1
Apr-
12
Jan-1
3
Oct-
13
Jul-1
4
%
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Employment (S/A)
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
20
04Q
1
20
04Q
2
20
04Q
3
20
04Q
4
20
05Q
1
20
05Q
2
20
05Q
3
20
05Q
4
20
06Q
1
20
06Q
2
20
06Q
3
20
06Q
4
20
07Q
1
20
07Q
2
20
07Q
3
20
07Q
4
20
08Q
1
20
08Q
2
20
08Q
3
20
08Q
4
20
09Q
1
20
09Q
2
20
09Q
3
20
09Q
4
20
10Q
1
20
10Q
2
20
10Q
3
20
10Q
4
20
11Q
1
20
11Q
2
20
11Q
3
20
11Q
4
20
12Q
1
20
12Q
2
20
12Q
3
20
12Q
4
20
13Q
1
20
13Q
2
20
13Q
3
20
13Q
4
20
14Q
1
20
14Q
2
20
14Q
3
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Consumer Confidence
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ma
r-9
7
Aug-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jun-9
8
No
v-9
8
Apr-
99
Sep-9
9
Feb
-00
Jul-0
0
De
c-0
0
Ma
y-0
1
Oct-
01
Ma
r-0
2
Aug-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jun-0
3
No
v-0
3
Apr-
04
Sep-0
4
Feb
-05
Jul-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ma
y-0
6
Oct-
06
Ma
r-0
7
Aug-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jun-0
8
No
v-0
8
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Feb
-10
Jul-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
y-1
1
Oct-
11
Ma
r-1
2
Aug-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jun-1
3
No
v-1
3
Apr-
14
Sep-1
4
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Economic Forecasts
2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
GDP 0.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.3%
GNP 3.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.0%
Consumption -0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 1.5%
Investment -2.4% 14.7% 12.5% 7.5%
Exports 1.1% 8.5% 6.0% 4.5%
Unemployment 13.1% 11.3% 10.0% 9.3%
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Key Economic Risks/Challenges
• Euro Zone fragility
• Government debt levels high – no room for fiscal heroics
• Personal & SME debt overhang
• Housing market imbalances in Dublin
• Restoring a functioning banking sector – progress being
made
• Personal sector still pressurised – property tax revaluation
in 2016?
• Pressure for wage increases
• Political developments ~ stability/poor economic policies?
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The Motor Industry in 2014
• New private cars registered +29.5%
• Light Commercial Vehicles +51.3%
• Heavy Goods Vehicles +14.9%
• Every county reported good growth in new car
registrations
• Costs of motoring : Year to December: Petrol -7.5%,
Diesel -9.6%, Insurance +11.6%, New Car price -2.4%
• Petrol -16.5% from peak: Diesel -16.8% from peak
• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer €965 m
+26.6%
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Monthly Registrations
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014
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Cars Licensed
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NEW CARS (%) IMPORTED CARS (%)
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EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY 2014
NEW CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€mln) % GROWTH
VRT 427 +28.9%
VAT 372 +32.8%
Total 799 +30.7%
USED CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€ mln) % GROWTH
VRT 146 +10.3%
VAT 20 +7.3%
Total 166 +9.9%
GRAND TOTAL 965 +26.6%
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Employment
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
(000s)
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Oil Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/2/2009 1/2/2010 1/2/2011 1/2/2012 1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015
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Cost of Motoring
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep-1
3
Jan-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Sep-1
4
(Jan
2005=
100)
Motor cars
Petrol
Diesel
Motor car insurance
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Key Drivers of New Car Market
• Personal Consumption
• Interest Rates
• Unemployment
• Population >15 Years
• Car Sales in Previous Years
• One-off events e.g.: Car Scrappage
Scheme, Y2000 etc
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Economic Impact & Potential of Industry
• Contributed €965 mln to Exchequer 2014 (€1.8 billion in
2007)
• Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer
• Q3 2014: 41,600 employed in industry
• 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold
• Making increasingly stronger contribution to national and
local economies
• 120,000 in 2015? If achieved:
• Industry could add 3,000 new jobs
• 2015 Industry could contribute extra €188 m in VAT & VRT
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New Car Registrations
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
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Auto Market in 2015 & 2016
• Jan ‘15 29,948 +31%
• 118,000/120,000 possible in 2015
• Consumer confidence strong
• Credit availability good
• Interest rates to remain very low
• Labour market improving
• Stronger consumer spending
• Limited fiscal easing in Budget 2015
• 130,000 in 2016?
• Fragility of consumer spending & working capital key
challenges
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Q4 ReviewSponsor
Cathal Cremen
Commercial Manager
Done Deal
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Commercial Manager - Motor
Cathal Cremen
Motor Industry Review - 2014
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2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Traffic)
DoneDeal.ie - New Accounts,
486,000 (1.3Million total)
DoneDeal.ie
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2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Ad’s)
DoneDeal.ie
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Sales Value €2,325
million
2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Car Sales)
321,776
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2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Mobile)
IOS downloads - 201,000
Android downloads - 240,000
Total App downloads - 1.3 million
Over 32% of all ads were placed via mobile.
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2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Most Popular Search)
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2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors
Thank You!