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Sheppard Corridor
John Livey, Deputy City Manager
Gary Wright, Chief Planner
Expert Panel Meeting
February 24, 2012
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Overview
• Criteria
• Official Plan Perspective 1985 >
• Current Official Plan & Land Use
• Corridor Development Potential
• Factors Influencing Projections
• How Development Projects Inform Ridership
• Matching City Building & Transit Initiatives
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City Building Message
• Toronto has planned for a multi-centre city
• Long term vision is essential
• Official Plan principles support decision making criteria
• Difficulties in employment projections
• Stop and Go Funding for Transit infrastructure
• Matching Development and Rapid Transit challenges
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City Building Evaluation Criteria
• Connectivity
• Access/Mobility
• Community Impact
• Ridership
• Sustainability
• Cost
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1983 Metropolitan Official Plan
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1986 Network 2011
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1990 Let’s Move
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1994 Metropolitan Official Plan
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2002 Toronto Official Plan Urban Structure Map
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Toronto Official Plan Section 2.2.2
Scarborough Centre sits at the eastern end of the Scarborough
RT line served by two stations with a third planned, and is the
focal point of 13 surface TTC routes in the eastern part of
Toronto. Improving the Centre's connectivity will be crucial to its
success, particularly improving its regional gateway function,
improving service on, and extending, the RT route and
extending the Sheppard subway east providing a high-
speed connection between the Scarborough and North
York Centres.
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Toronto Official Plan Secondary Plan Areas
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Toronto Official Plan Higher Order Transit Map
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Toronto Official Plan Land Use Designations
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Sheppard East Corridor
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Forecast 2011-2061: Consumers to Victoria Park
Victoria Park Station
Dwelling units 1,600
Population 3,200
Consumers Rd Station
Dwelling units 300
Population 600
Employment 8,000
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Forecast 2011-2061: Pharmacy to Birchmount
Warden North Station
Dwelling units 3,700
Population 7,400
Employment 1,500
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Forecast 2011-2061: Brichmount to Midland
Kennedy Station
Dwelling units 1,600
Population 3,200
Employment 500
Agincourt Station
Dwelling units 2,800
Population 5,600
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Growth Forecast
Existing
LRT
Growth
2011 - 2031
Subway
Growth *
2011 - 2061
Sheppard Corridor (404 –Agincourt)
Dwelling Units
Population
Employment
16,000
43,900
28,900
2,500
6,100
7,700
12,000
24,000
10,000
Scarborough Centre (Progress – McCowan)
Dwelling Units
Population
Employment
5,800
12,200
14,700
12,000
27,800
6,900
23,000
46,000
12,500
Consumers Business Park
Employment
19,000
5,500
8,000
* Based on N Barry Lyon’s Forecast for KPMG
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Value of Commercial & Industrial Building Permits
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
$ B
illi
on
s
City of Toronto Rest of CMA
City's
Com
merc
ial ta
x r
atio
reduct
ion p
olic
y b
egin
s Source : Statistics Canada
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Office Vacancy Rates - GTA
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
00q4 01q4 02q4 03q4 04q4 05q4 06q4 07q4 08q4 09q4 10q4 11q4
City of Toronto "905" Municipalities
City's
Com
merc
ial ta
x r
atio
reduct
ion p
olic
y b
egin
s
Source: Cushman & Wakefield LePage
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Commercial Property Tax Rates
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Toronto
Oakville
Mississauga
Brampton
Vaughan
Markham
Pickering City's
Com
merc
ial ta
x r
atio
reduct
ion p
olic
y b
egin
s
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Sheppard East Ridership Forecast (2031)
Westbound AM Peak
Existing
(1) LRT
Don Mills to Morningside1
(2)
Subway Yonge to
Scarborough Centre1
(3)
Subway Downsview
to Scarborough
Centre3
(4)
Subway Downsview
to Scarborough
Centre2&4 (enhanced
service)
(5) Subway
Downsview to
Scarborough Centre
Approaching
Consumers Business
Park
N/A
3,000
4,200
4,800
7,300
Approaching
Sheppard Station
(Yonge)
4,500
6,000
7,800
9,500
12,500
Notes:
1. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Sheppard East LRT EA, 2008)
2. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown RT - Demand Forecasting Report, 2011
3. TTC Service Planning/City Planning (Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown RT - Demand Forecasting Report 2011 (Modified February, 2012)
4. Subway operating speed increased to 36 km/hr from 30 km/hr and headways reduced to 3 minutes from 5.5 minutes
BEYOND 2031 (5)
Subway Downsview
to Scarborough
Centre
30 Plus Years of Potential
Development Growth
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Sheppard East Ridership Forecast (2031) Compared to Transit Technologies
AM Peak Direction Ridership
Approaching
Consumers Business Park (Westbound)
AM Peak Direction Ridership
Approaching
Yonge Street (Westbound)
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City Building Conclusions
• Long Term Perspective
– Infrastructure lasts a long time
– Dollars are scarce – but this is not the last tranche
– Private sector involvement
• Align
– Development Around Stations
– Transit and Other Infrastructure
– Economic Development Strategy
• Apply the Criteria