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How technology can change the
world
Panofsky Auditorium
SLAC, Stanford University
24 August, 2012
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Bill
Hansen
Sigurd
Varian
John
Woodyard
David
Webster
Russell
Varian
The Klystron
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Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar
Nature 488, pp. 294 – 303 (2012) August 16 issue.
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The Industrial Revolution and the transition from horse power to horsepower transformed the world
J.M.W. Turner (1839) The H.M.S. Temeraire, distinguished in Battle of Trafalgar, being towed to her last berth to be broken up for scrap.
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The gasoline-powered internal combustion engine rapidly replace horse powered vehicles.
New York, 5th Avenue, ~1890s Detroit, circa 1920
The ~160,000 horses in New York and Brooklyn in 1880 were producing 3 - 4 millions pounds of horse manure and 40,000 gallons urine a day.*
* http://www.uctc.net/access/30/Access%2030%20-%2002%20-%20Horse%20Power.pdf
Automobile technology was superior to horse-drawn vehicles. A serious environmental pollution issue hastened the transition.
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The temperature record 1800 - 2010
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Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Science 334, 34 (2011)
1750
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14C is produced through cosmic-ray bombardment. It is incorporated
into plants and animals and decays with a 5,730 year half-life.
Fossilized organic material is depleted of 14C. Burning fossil fuel will
add 12C to the atmosphere and lower the 14C/ 12C ratio.
Suess Effect
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The decline in 14C is
quantitatively consistent
( 25%) with known fossil
fuel emissions.
Heather Graven
Tom Guilderson, Ralph
Keeling
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Meteorological
events (storms)
Hydrological
events (floods)
Climatological events
(extreme temp,
drought, forest fire)
Geological events
(earthquake, etc.)
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Source: http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-07225_en.pdf
The time average trend of insured and uninsured losses is exceeding $150 Billion/year.
$150 Billion / year losses
Trend: overall losses
Trend: insured losses
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Aug. 2003: European heat wave Temperature anomalies reached 10°C
52,000 Europeans died—18,000 Italians (2006 assessment)*
Country Fatalities
Italy 18,257
France 14,802
Germany 7,000
Spain 4,130
England & Wales 2,139
Portugal 2,099
Smaller countries 4,025
Total of above 52,452
12 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3714
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2010: Heat wave centered Southeast of Moscow Temperature anomalies reached 12°C
10,000-15,000 deaths
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http://takvera.blogspot.com/2011/10/climate-change-fractional-attribution.html
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Addressing the energy and climate challenge provides an opportunity to promote sustainable growth and
secure our future prosperity.
Will the rising price of fossil fuels or
the arrival of “peak oil” force us to find
alternatives?
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Fraction of world primary energy
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 http://bp.com/statisticalreview2012.
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OiI and Gas reserves have kept pace with rising demand.
(Shale gas and shale-oil reserves not yet included)
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Nuclear and hydro-power declined, so the fraction of carbon-free primary energy remained roughly constant.
Renewable Energy grew more than 5x from 1991 – 2011.
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IEA projection of LCOE of energy
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U.S.
cost
Not
known
Not
accurate
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Andy Grove co-founder and former CEO of Intel
Author of “Only the Paranoid Survive:
How to exploit the crisis points that challenge every company”
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In every Crisis lies
the seed of Opportunity
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Crisis
Danger Opportunity
wei ji
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Opportunities for improved technologies
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
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Opportunities for improved technologies
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
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The Boeing 787 uses only 30% of the fuel as the 707.
Airplanes have become much more energy efficient.
Improved aerodynamics, engines and materials (carbon composites)
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Computer simulations using Argonne National Lab computer resources enabled virtual testing of a turbofan drive gear system.
25 Argonne Leadership Computing Facility
• 3,000 tons less carbon
• $1.5M savings/airplane/year • 50% quieter
Jet engines have become 50% more efficient since the 1970s. The current engines being designed will have
~12 – 15% higher efficiency
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New materials and manufacturing methods can
change the landscape of energy solutions
In 1884, the price of aluminum was $1/oz and the price of gold was $20/oz.
Today’s prices: Al = 6¢/ oz Au ~ $1776/oz.
Goal: electrolytic reduction of Ti at 475-525o C instead of 3 re-melting steps at 1660 o C
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Out-of-the-Autoclave Composites
Autoclave (conventional) Out-of-the-Autoclave
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Low-cost Carbon Composites
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Carbon fiber is ~ 50% of the cost of car bon composites and current fabrication techniques are costly
What if carbon micro/nano tubes can be injected and
molded and then “polymerized” after injection?
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3rd Generation Advance High Strength Steels
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• Electron microscopy (TEM and analytical) • X-ray scattering • Neutron scattering • Scanning probe microscopy
We understand the structural changes at the nano- and meso-scale by forming processes, but don’t yet have a
fundamental understanding of how alloying or treatments (extrusion, pressing, pounding) create those properties.
Can computer simulations help us understand the kinetics of metal alloys and design better
manufacturable materials?
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Global energy consumption due to friction in passenger cars
BRAKES 5%
ROLLING
RESIST. 11.5%
FUEL
ENERGY
100%
EXHAUST 33%
COOLING 29%
MECH. POWER
38%
FRICTION LOSSES
33%
AIR DRAG 5%
ENGINE
11.5%
TRANS. 5%
AIR DRAG 5%
ENERGY
USED TO
MOVE THE
CAR
21.5%
Thermodynamic
Losses
Total Energy
Losses
Friction can be reduced by ~20% in the short term and ~60% over a longer term (15–25 years).
Holmberg, K., Anderssona, P., Erdemirb, A. Tribology Int. 47, 221–234 (2012).
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Applying HPC aerodynamics used in aviation to trucks
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BMI Corp. applies aerospace methods to streamline the undercarriage of
long-haul trucks
• The original UnderTray system reduces drag by 12%.
The new UT-1 system can be installed by 1 person in 1 hour. Cost <
$1,000 with bulk order.
• Fuel efficiency increase: 5.5–10% increase in fuel efficiency, depending on
model installed.
• Average long-haul trucks are driven ~ 100,000 miles a year. At $4/gal. the
trucker saves ~$3,400 - $7400 /year.
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The VW Jetta TDI has 140 hp, 236 ft-lbs of torque, 795 mile range, and a highway EPA rating of 43 mpg
Ford 1.0-litre, 3-cylinder turbocharged engine 118 hp, 125 lb-ft torque from 1,300-4,500 rpm and 147 lb-ft on over-boost.
The engine block has a footprint of an 8.5 x 11 sheet of paper.
An additional 25% improvement in gasoline engines is possible with higher octane fuels.
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A better understanding the internal combustion engine has led to the computer design of a Cummins diesel engine
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Electric vehicles
Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus,
others
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Chevy Volt, Fisker,
Prius Plug in, others
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ARPA-E’s AMPED PROGRAM
Approx. $30 million for disruptive innovation in battery management
(Material Science, UC Berkeley)
Program Director: Dr. Ilan Gur
Sensing
Modeling Controls
Systems
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Opportunities for improved technologies
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
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U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for 2016.
(2012 actual costs shown in green)
The IEA (Inter. Energy Agency projects wind
energy will cost $90/MWh
by 2020
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Bloomberg New Energy Finance LCOE for Q3 2012 The analysis is based on projects where investment or purchase contracts have been completed.
Subsidies such as the PTC (production tax credit) or ITC (Investment tax credit have been taken out.
Natural gas CCGT
Wind – Onshore Landfill gas
PV thin film c-Si
C_SI tracking
Large hydro
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U.S. Wind Resources at 80 meter tower height
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The cost of wind continues to decline due to improved performance in gearboxes, blades,
increased size and height, and system engineering
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100 meter wind tower 2.3 MW turbine: 93 meter diameter blades, 115 meters high.
Scaling is size and height improve performance
Airbus 380 wingspan: 80 meters Wright Brothers first flight: 37 meters
Largest diameter installed wind turbine: 126 meters dia.
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2.3 MW turbine 93 meter diameter blade, 115 meters high. (Off-shore turbines up to 5 MW)
“One approach to servicing the highest wind turbines is to design cranes that can ‘inch worm’ themselves up the towers, analogous
to the self-lifting cranes used to build tall buildings.”
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Power Conversion & Energy Storage
10,000 lbs 100 lbs
Today Future
And
Smart!
$100/kWh $100/kWh
Anywhere
In the
world
2010: 30% of all electric power flows through power electronics
2030: 80% of all electric power will flow through power electronics
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SiC power modules operate at 1200V and 880 amps. (1MW)
1.2 kV/100A SiC module Internal view: 2 80 A SiC MOSFETs and 2 50 A SiC JBS diodes
Latest news is that a > 1 kV, 1 MW single SiC transistor has been demonstrated.
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Cost of PV modules is dropping below the
power law experience curves Source: (CdTe) First Solar Earnings Presentation, SEC Filings;
(c-Si) Navigant, Bloomberg NEF, NREL internal cost models
April, 2012
Spot market
price = $0.86
2015
prediction
49
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SunShot goal: Cost Competitive Solar by 2020 ( L.C.O.E.: 6.5¢/ KWh) $8.00
$1.70
$0.80 $0.40
$0.50
$1.88
$0.72
$0.76
$0.40
$0.22 $0.12
$0.10
0
2
4
6
8
$1/W Target
$1/W
Inst
alle
d S
yste
ms
Pri
ce (
$/W
)
$3.80/W
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
PV module prices
2nd Q 2012: $0.86/W
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Nature Materials 9, 762 (2010)
Z-X Shen: “I read the Nature paper by you and Arun with great interest ... I found the statement ‘Integrating photovoltaics in a solar thermal absorber may
be possible, allowing both approaches to be integrated’ very appealing.”
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Epitaxial growth of single crystal Si on a reusable single-
crystalline silicon template 35 µm thick. Proven cell efficiency ~19%
23.5% cell efficiency
22% module efficiency.”
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Residential PV in Germany costs ~$2.50/W Residential PV in the US costs ~$6/W
Why can’t the installation of a PV system on your roof be handled like the installation of a gas water heater?
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Approaches to bio-fuel production
• Sugars and starches ethanol
•Ligno-cellulose ethanol
• Ligno-cellulose drop-in fuels
• Sunlight biofuels
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R E
F I N
I N
G
Platforms / Pathways
Feedstock Production & Logistics
• Energy crops
• Agricultural byproducts
• Waste Streams
• Algae
• Coal
• Natural Gas
•Ethanol
•Methanol
•Butanol
•Olefins
•Aromatics
•Gasoline
•Diesel
•Jet
•Dimethyl
Ether
•Heat and
Power
Co or By
Products
Power Pyrolysis Oil Platform
Syngas Platform
Liquid
Bio-oil
Enzymatic Hydrolysis
Sugars Fermentation
Cellulosic Sugar Platform
Algal and other Bio-Oils
Transesterification
Catalytic Upgrading
Products
Fast Pyrolysis
Gasification
Lipid (Oil) Platform
Raw
syngas
Filtration &
Clean-up
Upgrading
Other enzymatic/biochemical methods
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JBEI–INDUSTRY COLLABORATION: SIMPLE SUGARS AND
STARCHES TO DROP-IN FUEL PRECURSORS (AMYRIS)
BIOMASS
56
•JBEI and Amyris have genetically altered bacteria to make precursors to diesel and jet fuel
•Pilot production facilities are being built in Brazil and Illinois
BIOFUELS CHEMICALS
Microbial factory
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Lowering the cost of biomass harvesting, storage and shipment is a critical issue
Wheat & corn are shipped world-wide at ~$100/ton prices.
Biofuel feed stocks before concentration are less valuable.
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Sugar Cane-to-ethanol yield per hectare in
Brazil has increased 3x in ~30 years Y
ield
(li
ters
/he
cta
re)
Leaves are left in the field Stalks are transferred to larger trucks
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Man first learned to fly by imitating nature
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Courtesy of Freefoto.com
H
H O
O H H
O O C
O C
O
CH3 O H CH3
O H
O O
O O
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Sources of Energy in the US since 1850
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
Source: EIA
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• Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues to improve. Economically recoverable reservoirs are likely to keep pace with the rising demand for decades.
• We transitioned to better solutions. The cost of renewable energy is rapidly becoming competitive with other sources of energy. We must accelerate the transition to affordable and sustainable energy that will power economic growth, increase energy security and mitigate the risks of climate change.
On the other hand, “If we don’t change direction soon, we’ll end up where we’re heading”.
“The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones” Saudi oil minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani
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Earthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968)
"We came all this way to explore the moon and the most important thing is that we discovered the Earth.”
Bill Anders, Apollo 8 Astronaut 64