Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium:Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climateforecasts and observations in NE U.S.
(What the heck happened?)
Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar,Lisa Goddard and Marty Hoerling
CDPW, October 2003, Reno, Nevada
CDC’s multi-model AGCM-mimicking CCA:Forecast made Nov 2002 for DJF 2002/03
DJF 2002-03 Surface Temperature Made November using predicted SST
_______________________________________________________
Canonical surface temperature El Nino response
Canonical surface temperature El Nino response
Canonical precipitation El Nino response
CPC temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November
IRI temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November
DJF 2002-03 Observed SST Anomaly
X
X
X = significant errorin IRI’s SST forecast
X
CDC
DJF 2002-03From observed SST
From NOAA Climate Prediction Center
wow
wow
gee whiz
Sign-Agreement Diagrams
200mb height
5 modelsplus obs
5 models
Individual ensemble members from the various models
EnsAvg
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Toward AGCM-generatedprobability forecasts
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
2000-01 2001-02 1997-98 NDJF NDJF NDJF
5 models 5 models 5 models + obs + obs + obs
5 models 5 models 5 models
Reliability Diagram 1997-2001
Reliability Diagramlonger “AMIP”
period
from Goddardet al. 2003
(EGS-AGU-EUG)