Mark Bennett, USGSStudy funded Cooperatively with Newport
News Waterworks
Presentation derived primarily from study entitled:
“ Simulated Changes in Salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers as a Result of
Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay”
Karen C. Rice, Mark R. Bennett, and Jian Shen
Peninsula Water Supply Peninsula Water Supply NN Waterworks -
Chickahominy River, five reservoirs, & desalted groundwater (62 mgd)
Williamsburg – onereservoir; interconnections
JCC & York County: groundwater; interconnections
Regional sharing Agreements
D iascund C reekR eservoir
L ittle C reekR eservoirNew Kent C ounty
C hickahom inyR iver
W illiam sburg
York C ounty
Y o r k Ri v e r
W aller M illR eservoir
Lee H allR eservoir
N
S
EW
Poquoson
Newport News
Skiffe ’s C reekR eservoir
H arwood’s M illR eservoir
N ewport N ew s W aterw orksService A rea
James R
iver
C hesapeake Bay
H am pton
Jam es C ity County
Lee H allW ellfie ld
Chickahominy RiverChickahominy River Primary source of fresh water to the
region
Limited source during droughts due
to low flows and salinity
Tidal barrier dam designed/installed
in 1940’s
Warming impacts on surface water qualityWarming impacts on surface water quality Drought Intensity and frequency changesDrought Intensity and frequency changes Demand Patterns (including population Demand Patterns (including population
shifts and seasonal peaking changes)shifts and seasonal peaking changes) Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Salinity Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, Salinity GradientsGradients
Sea Level Trends
Normal and drought flow conditions in York and Chickahominy River
Low, Median, and High Sea-level Rise Scenarios
1. 20th Century rate = 3-4 mm/year; 30-40 cm by 21002. 2oth Century rate + 2 mm/year acceleration; up to 50 cm by
21003. 20th Century rate + 7 mm/year acceleration; up to 100 cm
by 2100
Model development,
testing and calibration by
VIMS and USGS
Adapted Chesapeake
Bay model and river models
(HEM-3D)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004
CH
LOR
IDE
CON
CEN
TRA
TIO
N,
IN M
ILLI
GR
AM
S P
ER L
ITER
Calibration Results
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008
SALI
NIT
Y, I
N P
AR
TS P
ER T
HO
USA
ND
No rise
30-cm rise
EXPLANATION
A.
Surface salinity at Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River
3 documented historical events
30 cm rise increases duration slightly, increases concentration significantly
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008
SALI
NIT
Y, I
N P
AR
TS P
ER T
HO
USA
ND
50-cm rise
100-cm rise
EXPLANATION
B.
Higher sea-level conditions increase number of excursions during lower flow periods ( 7-8 events !)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS
SA
LIN
ITY
, IN
PA
RT
S P
ER
TH
OU
SA
ND
B.
No rise
30-cm rise
50-cm rise
100-cm rise
RIV
ER
MO
UT
H
October 2005 flow conditions (“normal dry season/year”)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS
SA
LIN
ITY
, IN
PA
RT
S P
ER
TH
OU
SA
ND
RIV
ER
MO
UT
H
A.
No rise
30-cm rise
50-cm rise
100-cm rise
October 2002 flow conditions(Severe Drought)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008
SALI
NIT
Y, IN
PA
RTS
PER
THO
USA
ND
No rise
30-cm rise
EXPLANATIONA.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1/2/1998 1/2/1999 1/2/2000 1/2/2001 1/2/2002 1/2/2003 1/2/2004 1/2/2005 1/2/2006 1/2/2007 1/2/2008
SALI
NIT
Y, IN
PAR
TS P
ER T
HO
USA
ND
50-cm rise
100-cm rise
B.EXPLANATION
October 2005 flow conditions (“normal dry season/year”)
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS
SA
LIN
ITY
, IN
PA
RT
S P
ER
TH
OU
SA
ND
No rise
30-cm rise
50-cm rise
100-cm rise
A.
RIV
ER
MO
UT
H
HE
AD
OF
TH
E R
IVE
R
October 2002 flow conditions (severe drought)
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
DISTANCE UPSTREAM OF RIVER MOUTH, IN KILOMETERS
SA
LIN
ITY
, IN
PA
RT
S P
ER
TH
OU
SA
ND
B.
100-cm rise
50-cm rise
30-cm rise
No rise
RIV
ER
MO
UT
H
HE
AD
OF
T
HE
RIV
ER
Sea-Level rise will impact the freshwater-salt water – brackish water gradients in the York River and Chickahominy River.
Changes will be most notable during low flows and in areas with a lower volume of flow
What are the potential implications for habitat?
Questions ?Questions ?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1191/2011/1191/
Quality. Reliability. Community.