www.iihs.org
Science, the Haddon Matrix and Adventures in Highway Safety
“Injury Prevention Works!” Seminars Johns Hopkins University
Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, MD ● September 9, 2013
Adrian Lund, Ph.D., President
www.iihs.org
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational
organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and
property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
The Highway Loss Data Institute,
founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific
studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses
resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles
and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
www.iihs.org
Where are we? Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center
Washington, DC
Virginia
Charlottesville
Arlington
Virginia
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Institute activities
• Priority 1 – objective research on policy options to reduce injuries
and property damage from motor vehicle crashes
• Priority 2 – effective communications to make research
information attractive to news media
– News releases (TV, print, Internet)
– Films
– Testimony at state and federal legislative and regulatory hearings
– Briefings of other stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers
• IIHS and HLDI rely on aggressive research and communications
to empower people and policymakers with objective information
We do not lobby, legislate, or litigate
www.iihs.org
1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu
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50th Anniversary crash test 1959 Bel Air vs. 2009 Malibu
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1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu
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0
20
40
60
80
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10
Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2011
motor vehicle deaths
deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
11.0 per billion
32,367
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Progress made possible by scientific analysis The critical contribution of William Haddon to highway safety
• Public health goal is to prevent injuries
• Injuries are caused by the acquisition or loss of kinetic energy at
rates too high for the body to tolerate
• Ubiquity of an antecedent condition in crashes – for example,
driver error – does not mean that condition is the best target for
intervention
– The intervention must be a practical one that has demonstrable
benefits in preventing injuries
– Analogous to drug interventions: knowing that cholesterol is
associated with cardiovascular events and that a drug controls
cholesterol does not make that drug an effective treatment unless the
drug reduces cardiovascular events
– Driver education, aimed at driver error, has been ineffective
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Real world crash examples Caused by driver error
• A pickup truck hit a sedan
head-on in upstate New
York shortly after
9 PM on April 13, 2012.
• The vehicle took a road
curve faster than the
posted 35 mph
recommendation.
Source: Buffalo (NY) News / April 17, 2012
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Real world crash examples Caused by vehicle malfunction
• On April 17, 2013 a semi truck
rear-ended a car during a snow
squall on I-75 in Michigan.
• Upon inspection of the semi’s eight
axles, four were found to not work
and two were badly adjusted.
• The driver also had five safety
citations, including multiple
speeding tickets and tailgating.
Source: The Detroit (MI) News / April 17, 2013
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Real world crash examples Caused by road conditions
• A Jeep slid on an icy road and
crashed into a construction
truck on March 19 in Michigan.
• The occupants of both vehicles
were wearing seatbelts.
Source: Grand Rapid (MI) Press / March 20, 2013
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What happened in this crash?
• Red light running
• High speed of crossing traffic (with pedestrian present)
• Elderly driver
• Pedestrian crossing against the light
• Alcohol impaired driving (the pedestrian has a suspended license)
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•intersections design
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
Haddon matrix Recognizing opportunities to make a difference
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•intersections design
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
Graduated licensing
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Passenger vehicle driver crash rates Per mile traveled, by driver age, 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
16 17 18 19 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+
all police-reported crashes per million miles traveled
fatal crashes per 100 million miles traveled
driver age
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fatal crashes per 100,000 people in the U.S. Passenger vehicle drivers, by driver age, 1996-2011
-72%
-62%
-58%
-45%
-36%
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number of states + DC
1995 2013
minimum learner’s age 16 or older 8 8 & DC
learner’s permit for at least 6 months 0 46 & DC
30 or more hours of certified driving 0 40 & DC
minimum intermediate licensing age 16, 6 or older 2 9 & DC
night driving restriction once licensed 9 49 & DC
passenger restriction once licensed 0 44 & DC
Licensing requirements in 1995 vs. 2013 September 2013
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Percent reduction in U.S. teenagers’ crash rates By graduated licensing component
0 5 10 15 20
20 or more hours of practice driving
teen passengers limited to 0 or 1
9 p.m. driving restriction
1-year delay in license age
1-year delay in permit age
fatal crashes per population, 15-17-year-old drivers
collision claim frequencies, 16-17-year-old drivers
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
Roundabouts
www.iihs.org
stop sign 34%
other 6%
no traffic control 28%
7,707 deaths at intersections in 2010 Distribution by type of traffic control
red light
running
crash
deaths
9%
signal light
32%
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Roundabouts are circular intersections with design features that eliminate the need for stop signs or traffic signals
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Conversion of stop sign and traffic signal intersections to roundabouts:
• 40% reduction in all crashes
• 80% reduction in injury crashes
• 90% reduction in fatal & incapacitating injury crashes
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If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts
• Approximately 43,000 crashes prevented in 2011 including:
– 170 fatal crashes
– 28,000 injury crashes
• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours
• Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons
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Percent of residents who favor roundabouts Before and after construction
0
20
40
60
80
before 6 weeks after 1-5 years after
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Progress in building roundabouts September 2013
MD
DE
DC
MA
OR
RI NJ
NH
ME
PA
WV
NC
SC
GA
FL
OH
MI
IN IL
WI
IA
MO
LA
NM
CO
SD
ID
CA
WA
TN
VT
MS
MT ND
NV
AZ
UT
WY
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
MN
AL
KY VA
NY
CT
AK
HI
50 or more
10-49
fewer than 10
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•intersections design
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
Red light cameras
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In 2011 on US roads, about 150,000 red-light-running
crashes caused about 118,000 injuries and about
700 deaths.
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red light running driver 34%
12% passengers in
red light running vehicles
occupants of vehicles that didn’t
run light 48%
pedestrian, bicyclist, other
6%
714 deaths in red light running crashes in 2011 Distribution by type of road user
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This photo was taken by a red light camera more
than 7 seconds after the light turned red. The red
car entered the intersection going
55 mph.
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Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during 2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs. expected rates without cameras
-30
-20
-10
0
red light running fatal crashes
fatal crashes at intersections with signal lights
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Percent who favor using red light cameras Telephone survey in 14 cities with red light cameras, 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
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US communities with red light cameras 1992-2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
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Red light cameras are sometimes criticized for enforcing right-turn-on red rules. However, stop-before- turning rules are meant to protect pedestrians from drivers who might otherwise be looking left for oncoming traffic when pedestrians enter the road from the right.
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Improvements in driver attention and performance may not require new technology Red light cameras already are making drivers pay more attention at intersections
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•intersections design
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
Vehicle crashworthiness
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
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rollover 22%
Passenger vehicle occupant deaths By point of principal impact, 2011
frontal impact 41%
side impact 25% rear impact
4%
Other/ Unknown
9%
32,367 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2011. 21,347 deaths were
occupants of passenger vehicles, and
most of them died in front or side impacts.
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Fatality risk in real-world crashes Percent driver fatality risk reduction in head-on crashes,
by IIHS crash test rating
The risk of death is much lower in vehicles rated
good based on IIHS tests, compared with vehicles
rated poor.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
46% lower fatality risk in vehicles rated good than in vehicles rated poor
33% lower fatality risk in vehicles rated acceptable or marginal than in vehicles rated poor
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Fatality risk in side impacts Estimated percent reductions in driver fatality risks in vehicles with
side airbags, 2000-04
IIHS research shows side airbags save lives.
In real-world side impacts, driver fatality risk is 37%
lower in cars and 52% lower in SUVs with side
airbags with head protection, compared
with similar vehicles without this protection.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
torso only head protection + torso
cars
SUVs
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Percent change in driver death risk in left side impacts
Adjusted for age, gender, vehicle type and curb weight, 2000-09
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
good vs. poor acceptable vs. poor marginal vs. poor
Good performance in the IIHS side crash test
results in strong reductions in driver’s risk
of death in side impact crashes. These benefits go
beyond the addition of side airbags.
Rating recalculated without data from passenger dummy.
Restricted to vehicles with standard head and torso side airbags.
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0
10
20
30
40
fatal or incapacitating
injury fatality ejection
fatal or incapacitating
injury
fatal or incapacitating
injury
small cars
midsize SUVs
Estimated effects of increasing SWR by one unit Percent change in risk
all drivers non-ejected drivers
drivers with coded belt use
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A new crash test for consumer information Frontal small overlap
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small overlap 24%
moderate overlap
24% center 19%
underride 14%
low severity 11%
full width 6%
override 2%
Serious injuries in frontal crashes, by configuration
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Overhead video small overlap test (car-to-car and car-to-barrier)
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Small car small overlap ratings
changed for small overlap test
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crash phase
changes in… before during after losses
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol •injuries
•deaths
•economic
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints effect
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
•damage
•repairability
environment
•intersections design
•trouble spots treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
•economic
•fuel economy
Driver assistance systems and vehicle electronic control
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing (GDL, elderly)
•impaired driving laws
•camera enforcement
•restraints (use)
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•driver assistance
•daytime running lights
•electronic control
•restraints (effect)
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash
notification
•fuel systems
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble-spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•crash cushions
•emergency
medicine
www.iihs.org
Front crash prevention systems are living up to expectations
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0
2
4
6
8
10
PDL claim frequencies for 2010-12 Volvo XC60 with City Safety vs. other 2009-12 midsize luxury SUVs
Calendar years 2009-12
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Volvo City Safety updated results – April 2013
XC60 vs. other
midsize luxury SUVs
claim
frequency
claim
severity
overall
losses
property damage liability -16.0% -14.6% -13.1% -$89 -$42 $4 -$17 -$15 -$12
bodily injury -37.6% -33.3% -28.7%
collision -21.1% -20.2% -19.3% -$512 -$450 -$389 -$98 -$92 -$86
S60 vs. other midsize
4-door luxury cars
claim
frequency
claim
severity
overall
losses
property damage liability -19.5% -16.3% -12.9% $257 $373 $486 -$8 -$4 $0
bodily injury -30.4% -18.2% -3.8%
collision -10.7% -8.7% -6.6% -$802 -$668 -$537 -$92 -$79 -$66
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Property damage liability claim frequency for forward collision warning systems By manufacturer
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
without autobrake with autobrake
Acura
Volvo (w/ LDW)
Mercedes Benz
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Bodily injury liability claim frequency for forward collision warning systems By manufacturer
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
without autobrake with autobrake
Acura
Volvo (w/ LDW)
Mercedes Benz
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Lane departure warning is not living up to expectations
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Lane departure warning is not reducing crash claims
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Buick Mercedes Volvo
Collision
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
Buick (w/ Blindspot) Mercedes Volvo (w/ FCW)
PDL
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Lane departure warning is not reducing injury claims
-35
-25
-15
-5
Buick Mercedes Volvo
Bodily injury
0
40
80
120
Buick (w/ Blindspot) Mercedes Volvo (w/ FCW)
MedPay
PIP
MedPay and PIP
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Conclusion
• Motor vehicle crash injury prevention has been a success
• The problem remains large
– Further progress can and will be made by applying the principles laid out
by William Haddon
• The key is to always focus on the data
– What are the conditions under which injuries are occurring?
– What countermeasures reduce or prevent the injuries under those
conditions?
• Remember that the outsize contribution of driver behavior in crash
responsibility does not mean that changing the driver is an effective
way to reduce injuries
– Vehicles and the environment can be changed in ways to protect us from
ourselves, in some cases by changing our behavior when it matters
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Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway