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Sangita Kulathinal, University of Helsinki & INSEED organization and Minna Säävälä, Väestöliitto
The global spread of the two child norm:
Examples from India
Launching seminar ’Precarious family formation’,
Väestöliitto, Helsinki 19th April 2012
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The two ’billionaires’
• India population 1.2 billion (2011 Census)• China population 1.3 billion
o 36 % of the world’s population lives in China and India
o India expected to pass China’s population by 2025
• Most populous state Uttar Pradesh: 200 million people, more than in Brazil
Esittäjä, yksikkö, pvmVÄESTÖLIITTO Etunimi Sukunimi2
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Population projections: India till 2065
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm
’000
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Indian population scenario
• Total Fertility Rate 2.6 children per woman (est. 2011)
• Wide regional differences: o Northern ’Hindi belt’: still high fertility of 3-4 children o Southern and Western states: mostly replacement
level fertility or below 2.1 children
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Two-child norm in India
• Long history of national population policies• Slogan ’Small family is a happy family’• The key is social development, not indoctrination
in a democratic country
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• Two child norm has been adopted o in most urban areas, o in large parts of the rural areas in the country o in all socio-economic groups in South and West
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Small family, happy family
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We two, ours two
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We two, ours two
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If girl child is brutely killed then where will you get brides from?
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Unintended consequence of the two child norm
• Fertility decline in starkly patriarchal societies:o A son has to be secured
• Gender imbalance in 0-6 year-olds growing• Situation not as grave as in China, a later
phenomenon• Will affect marriage market• But: will India follow the path of China?
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Child sex ratio worsened continuously
1991 2001 2011
India 945 927 914
Maharashtra 946 913 883
Source: Census of India
n.b. Girls to 1000 boys aged 0 to 6
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Sub-study in India
• Survey data and qualitative interviews in two slums in Nashik, Maharashtra, Western India
Esittäjä, yksikkö, pvmVÄESTÖLIITTO Etunimi Sukunimi14
Mumbai
Nashik
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We ask in our study
• Is the two child norm going to lead to spread of one child norm, like in China?
• What are slum youth thinking of the future and what are their family formation intentions?
• Are people aware of the emerging future problem of finding brides? Is marriage age and system of spouse selection changing?
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India is moving towards“We two, ours one”
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Thank you for your attention!
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