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Rural Poverty Dynamics: Development Policy Implications
Christopher B. Barrett*
September 2003 Revision
INTRODUCTION =
RURAL POVERTY DYNAMICS: WHAT WE KNOW
Transitory and chronic poverty
Safety nets and cargo nets
safety nets
cargo nets
Journal of Human Resources
Identifying and explaining chronic poverty
RURAL POVERTY DYNAMICS: WHAT WE STILL NEED TO LEARN
poverty traps
Uncovering poverty traps and threshold effects
endogenous
exogenous
Figure 1: Nonparametric estimates of expected herd size transitions in southern Ethiopia
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.002002 per capita daily income (US$), Madzuu
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Ros
enbl
att-P
arze
n de
nsity
0 5 10 15 201997 household per capita herd size, Borana, Southern Ethiopia
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Ros
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Figure 2: Bimodal income in western Kenya Figure 3: Bimodal cattle wealth in southern Ethiopia
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.500
1
2
3
Per capita daily income (2002 US$), 1996 (dotted) and 2002 (solid) Fianarantsoa, Madagascar
Ros
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Figure 4: Intertemporal shifts in unimodal income distributions
Explaining poverty traps
some
DEVELOPMENT POLICY IMPLICATIONS
REFERENCES
American Economic Review
Quarterly Journal of Economics
Insurance Against Poverty
Quarterly Journal of Economics
Journal of Political Economy
Handbook of Income Distribution, Volume 1
Handbook of Agricultural Economics, volume 2B
Food Policy
Choices
Insurance Against Poverty
Food Policy
Journal of Economic Literature
Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Developing Countries
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
World Development
World Development
Journal of Development Economics
Food Policy
World Bank Economic Review
Journal of Development Economics
Insurance Against Poverty
Journal of Development Studies
Economic Journal
The Elusive Quest for Growth
Journal of Development Economics
Proceedings of the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics
Review of Economic Studies
American Economic Review 1
Journal of Development Economics
Journal of Development Studies
Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Developing Countries
World Development
World Bank Economic Review
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
World Development
ournal of Applied Econometrics
Food Policy
Q-Squared: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Of Poverty Appraisal
Journal of Political Economy
Econometrica
Journal of Monetary Economics
Economic Mobility and Poverty Dynamics in Developing Countries
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
American Economic Review
Journal of Economic Literature
Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
Economic Journal
World Bank Research Observer
Journal of Development Economics
Journal of Political Economy
Economic Journal
American Economic Review
Economic Journal
Journal of Political Economy
Employment for Poverty Reduction and Food Security
Economic Journal
Rural Finance for Food Security for the Poor: Implications for Research and Policy
Journal of Development Economics