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Rural Idaho Since the RecessionPriscilla Salant, Director
McClure Center for Public Policy ResearchUniversity of Idaho
August 12, 2015
www.indicatorsidaho.org
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TITLE 67STATE GOVERNMENT AND STATE AFFAIRS
CHAPTER 90IDAHO RURAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP ACT
(1)Assess conditions of rural Idaho;
(2)Advise the governor and the legislature on public policy and strategies to improve the quality of life in rural Idaho;...
(6)Serve as a nonpartisan forum for identifying and understanding rural issues from all perspectives;
.
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We use OMB’s definition of “rural”
All 32 counties other than these metro areas:•Coeur d’Alene (1 county)•Lewiston (1 county)•Boise-Nampa-Caldwell (5 counties)•Pocatello (1 county plus 1 w Logan MSA)•Idaho Falls (3 counties)
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
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Rural Idahoans make up a declining but significant share of the population
44
34
1814
1980 1990 2000 2010
Rural Idaho Rural US
548,000 in 2014Percent
SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service
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Population growth has been uneven across Idaho
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
Population change (%), 2010-2014
Clark -11.7
Butte -9.3
Camas -7.0
Custer -5.2
Elmore -3.5
Decline
Ada 8.6
Canyon 7.5
Kootenai 6.4
Twin Falls 4.8
Bonneville 4.2
Growth
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Rural Idaho is growing only because of Hispanics
0
46
10
-1
4
Nonmet ID Metro ID
Population change by ethnicity, 2010-2013
Total Population Hispanic Non-Hispanic
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
Adams 34
Lemhi 25
Lewis 23
Benewah 20
Nez Perce 19
Hispanic growth (%), 2010-2013
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Population change: Net migration and births minus deaths
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
4
1
6
3 3 31
-2
3
IDAHO Rural ID Urban ID
Population change and its components, 2010-2014
Population change (%)Natural change (%)Net migration rate (%)
Natural change rate (%),2010-2014
Clearwater -2.0
Shoshone -1.8
Lemhi -1.0
Boise -0.6
Washington -0.5
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Unemployment rates are down from the peak. Rural rates are slightly higher than urban.
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.3
9.1
5.1
2.9
9.0
4.7
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Unemployment rate, 2007-2014
Recession years Rural Urban
Average annual unemployment rate (%), 2014
Shoshone 10.0
Adams 10.0
Clearwater 9.4
Benewah 8.1
Lemhi 7.7
High unemployment
Owyhee 3.3
Madison 3.3
Franklin 3.4
Teton 3.9
Oneida 3.9
Low unemployment
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Job numbers are below pre-recession levels in both rural and urban Idaho
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
310,458 291,049 298,497
620,644577,057 604,949
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Number of jobs, 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
Change in number of jobs (%), 2007-2013
Valley -17
Blaine -16
Lemhi -15
Bonner -11
Clearwater -11
Decline
Camas 39
Clark 28
Lewis 14
Lincoln 11
Oneida 5
Growth
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Rural wages remain lower than urban but are starting to catch up
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
33,762 33,978 34,080
40,701 39,873 39,511
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Average wage per job ($), 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
NOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars
Average wage per job ($), 2013
Oneida 25,718
Boise 26,767
Franklin 27,433
Gem 29,042
Jefferson 29,067
Low wages
Butte 85,463
Caribou 49,096
Camas 45,927
Ada 43,937
Custer 41,464
High wages
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Surprising trend in per capita income: rural is catching up to urban, which appears stalled.
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisNOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars
34,329
35,805
38,658
36,320
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Per capita personal income, 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
Per capita personal income ($), 2013
Madison 22,987
Canyon 25,606
Boundary 29,668
Gem 30,597
Teton 30,910
Low income
Blaine 67,513
Clark 53,416
Camas 49,054
Gooding 46,244
Lewis 43,378
High income
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The picture is mixed in Idaho’s farm-dependent counties.Since the recession…•Population numbers: flat•Jobs: up slightly and more than in Idaho as a whole•Unemployment rates: below the state level and falling•Average wages: slightly higher than the state level
Clark -11.7
Camas -7.0
Fremont -2.8
Gooding -2.6
Power -2.6
Minidoka 1.3
Jerome 2.0
Lincoln 2.1
Cassia 2.6
Population change (%), 2010-2014
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Policy Implications
•Highway funding• Early childhood and K-12 education – from school
boards to broadband•College access•Public lands including new wilderness designations•And more ….