ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCGLOBAL OIL AND GAS CONFERENCE DEUTSCHE BANK LONDON
LONDONSEPTEMBER 27 2012
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 27 September 2012 1
SEPTEMBER 27, 2012
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCDEUTSCHE BANK LONDONSIMON HENRYCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 27 September 2012 2
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC provenmining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “RoyalDutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us”Dutch Shell are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words we , usand “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served byidentifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in whichRoyal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companiesin which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control arereferred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term“Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownershipinterest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements otherthan statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that arebased on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance orevents to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the
t ti l f R l D t h Sh ll t k t i k d t t t i t’ t ti b li f ti t f t j ti dpotential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections andassumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’,‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. Thereare a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in theforward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand forShell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmentaland physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets and successful negotiation and completion of suchand physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of suchtransactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developmentsincluding potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval ofprojects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation areexpressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-lookingstatements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2011 (available atstatements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell s 20 F for the year ended 31 December, 2011 (available atwww.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of thispresentation, 27 September 2012. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-lookingstatement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferredfrom the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in thispresentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
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We use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us fromincluding in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC websitewww.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
OVERVIEW
Performance focus H1 ‘12 earnings $13 bln; EPS unchangedH1 ’12 asset sales $4 bln
Growth deliveryH1 ‘12 underlying production growth 4%GROWTH DELIVERY
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
H1 12 underlying production growth 4%>20 projects under construction
N th ti
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
New growth optionsExpanding our opportunity funnelFrontier exploration build
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
New integrated gas options
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Earnings CCS basis, earnings and EPS excluding identified items
ENERGY INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS
12140
ROBUST LONGER TERM FUNDAMENTALS
energy demand outlook in million boe/d
MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY
$/bbl $ per unit of measurement
10120
400
6
8
80
100300
440
60
100
200
0
2
0
20
0
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Brent (LHS)WTI (LHS)
Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS)
OilGas
BiomassWind
CoalNuclearSolarOther RenewablesSh ll ti iti
Western Canada Select (LHS)
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Source: Shell analysis
Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS)Other RenewablesShell activitiesWeighted average refining margin $/bbl (RHS)
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
DOWNSTREAM: MINIMIZING UNPLANNED DOWNTIME%
10
UPSTREAM: WELL AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENTOil production in ‘000 boe per day
95
855
20 000 b d
750
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012Implementation
of structured WRM process
20,000 bpd
65
Oil ProductsChemicals
552002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012EXTRACTING MORE VALUE
FROM OUR ASSETS
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Example: Oman
RECYCLING CAPITAL INTO NEW GROWTH
ACQUISITIONS 2011 - 2012 H1DIVESTMENTS 2011 - 2012 H1
~$12 billion
~$6 billionbillion billion
Upstream Upstream
Exit non-core positions
Downstream
Liquids-rich shales
Downstream
Strategic partnering; Prelude, GroundbirchRefinery-to-terminal conversions
Frontier exploration playsLNG optionality
RIGOROUS FOCUS ON CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
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2012 DIVESTMENTS >$4 BLN
GROWTH DELIVERY RAMPING UP NEW PROJECTS
400
ATHABASCA OIL SANDS, QATARGAS 4, PEARL GTL
$ billion
PEARL GTL PRODUCT SLATE BUILD-UP
100% LPG
thousand boe/day
200
GASOLINE
NAPHTHA
LPG
NAPHTHA
NAPHTHANAPHTHANAPHTHA
GAS OIL
GAS OIL200
50%
GAS OIL
GAS OIL
KEROSENEGAS OIL
GAS OIL
0
1
0
0%Typical complex
KEROSENE
BASE OILPARAFFIN
BASE OILBASE OIL
PARAFFIN
BASE OIL
-2
-1 complexrefinery
22009 2010 2011 2012
CapexProduction (RHS)
FOCUS SHIFTS FROM DEVELOPMENT TO COMMERCIAL PERFORMANCE
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Shell share
MAINTAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM
35
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION
billion boe resources
UPSTREAM INVESTMENT 2012
%
25
35
Carmon CreekGeronggongBC-10 Ph. 3 (Massa)
Longer-term upside
15
25
EuropeAmericas
Asia PacificOther
Prelude FLNGAOSP debottl.NA tight gas /shalesClair Ph2
Tempa RossaFramMalikaiAOSP debottl + Quest
5
Clair Ph2Schiehallion
Pearl GTLQatarGas-4SchoonebeekQarn Alam EOR
Pluto (Woodside) HarweelNA tight gas/shalesEagle Ford
AOSP debottl. + QuestNA tight gas/shales
-5On-stream Under Construction Study Production
West Qurna 1 IPT
2010 2011
y
ROBUST PROJECT FLOW + GROWTH OUTLOOK8 BILLION BOE UNDER CONSTRUCTION
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~4 MILLION BOED 2017-18
GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+ MAINTAINING LNG LEADERSHIP
SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY + GROWTH
million tonnes per annum
AUSTRALIA – INDONESIA
40Abadi FLNG
Greater Sunrise
Prelude FLNGBrowse
Pluto (Woodside)
Gorgon
Gorgon T1-3
Wheatstone & Prelude
North West Shelf
WheatstoneArrow
20Gorgon
U d C t tiProduction
02012 1H ~2020+
Under ConstructionOptions
OnstreamConstructionOptions
~21 MTPA ON-STREAM~7 MTPA UNDER CONSTRUCTIONMATURING FUTURE OPTIONS
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PRELUDE FLOATING LNG
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SHELL UPSTREAM AMERICAS GROWTH
TIGHT/SHALE DEEP-WATER
AOSP Debottlenecking
North America
Carmon Creek
Under ConstructionOptions
Eagle Ford Mars BCardamom
North America tight gas
North America Liquids rich shales
VitoStonesAppomattox
Lowest cost gas + integration plays
Eagleford development + new plays
Growth focusMars-B development + new options
+ new plays
HEAVY OIL2011 PRODUCTION
BC-10 Phase 2
BC-10 Massa Ph 3
Debottlenecking mining options
In-situ growth i i
Deep waterTight/shale
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opportunitiesg /
Heavy oil
CONTINUED BUILD IN GULF OF MEXICO
Ram-PowellRam-Powell
GULF OF MEXICO: EAST GULF OF MEXICO: APPOMATTOX APPRAISAL
MC 393MC 347 MC 348
AppomattoxAppomattox
MM
NE AppraisalNW AppraisalH2 ‘12
VicksburgDiscovery
MC 348 & st
VitoVito
MarsMars
UrsaUrsa
Well Penetrations
DC 353
SW Appraisal
MC 391 MC 392 MC 393
AppomattoxDiscovery
y
H1 ‘13
VicksburgAppraisal
2012 Appraisal Success
Shell Leases2012 Shell access
0 50
milesShell Production Hubs
0 1
MilesShell Leases
Well PenetrationsOilWet
Caesar Tonga
Mars B
FID START-UPDISCOVERY
Cardamom
Stones
Appomattox
LEADING DEEP WATER PLAYER
GROWTH POTENTIAL
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VitoGROWTH POTENTIAL
2005 2010 2015 2020
MATURING NEW OPTIONS:EXPLORATION & BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
EXPLORATION PERFORMANCE BUILDING NEW ACREAGE
cumulative gross acreage‘000 km2
cumulative spend $ billion
Alaska
Greenland Timan Pechora15400
Turkey
Nova Scotia
China
Greenland
UkraineAlbania
Timan-Pechora
Nile Iraq
N. America tight/shale Kalmykia
10
200
Guyana / Fr Guiana
TanzaniaAustralia
YinggehaiGulf of Mexico
GabonBrazil
Colombia
Nile Delta
Malaysia Brunei DW
IraqQatar(block D)
Indonesia
PhilippinesBenin
5Australia CBM
offshore
Great South Basin
Orange BasinNeuquen
Brazil
002009 2010 2011 1H
20122012
AcreageEntry costs
Frontier acreage ( 2012 access)Tight/shale ( 2012 access)
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NEW EXPLORATION POSITIONSNEW POTENTIAL: 2012 ACREAGE POSITIONS
UKRAINE CHINA
JAA Blocks
YuzivskaBl k
JAA Blocks
Yuzivska
U k r a i n e
H a i n a n( C h i n a )
Skifska
Block 62/17
Block 62/02
U k r a i n e
Skifska
0 200100Kilometers
Yuzivska – tight gas/shale
7800 km2 onshore block, adds to existing JAA acreage
Yinggehai Basin
~6000 km2
multi-tcf tight/shale gas potential
Skifska – Deepwater exploration
16,700 km2 frontier acreage, northern Black Sea
ca 100m water depths
3D seismic planned for 2013
Shell 100% in exploration phase; 49% in development h h
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Shell 35%phase, with CNOOC
MATURING NEW OPTIONSNEW NORTH AMERICA INTEGRATED GAS POTENTIAL
Shell’s integrated gas capabilitiesEquity + industry resources base
LNG CanadaStudying 12 mtpa at KitimatShell 40% + strategic partners
Green corridor gas-to-transport0.3 mtpa at Jumping Pound
Equity + industry resources baseNatural hedge; oil/gas differential
MOVABLE MODULAR LIQUEFACTION SYSTEM (MMLS)
Gas-to-ChemicalsGas-to-
Western Canada gas resourcesGroundbirch resource potential increased from 6 tcfe to >12 tcfeShell 80%
GTL+ LNG Options
transport
FID ExecuteDefineSelectAssess Start-up Operate NORTH AMERICA
GAS MONETIZATION OPTIONS
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ConstructionProject Specifications
Concept Selection
Feasibility Study
Ramp-up to full capacity
OPTIONS
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
3030%
NET DEBT AND GEARING$ billion
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
10
20
30
10%
20% 2010 2011 H1 2012
Organic Investment 24 26 14
Acq isitions 7 5 1
00%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
H1Gearing (LHS)Net Debt (RHS)
Acquisitions 7 5 1
Disposals (7) (7) (4)
Net Capital Investment 24 24 11( )
RDS VERSUS FTSE 100Total dividend growth rate versus 2006
~$32 BLN ORGANIC CAPEX
10%
20%
30%$32 BLN ORGANIC CAPEX
2012
MAINTAINING PRUDENT BALANCE SHEET
-20%
-10%
0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
H1
RDS dividend growth
BALANCE SHEET
SELECTIVE PORTFOLIO BUILD
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FTSE100 dividend growth
SUMMARY
Performance focus H1 ‘12 earnings $13 bln; EPS unchangedH1 ’12 asset sales $4 bln
GROWTH DELIVERY
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Growth deliveryUnderlying production growth 4%
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
Underlying production growth 4%>20 projects under construction
N th tiPERFORMANCE FOCUS New growth optionsExpanding our opportunity funnelFrontier exploration buildNew integrated gas options
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Earnings CCS basis, earnings and EPS excluding identified items
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCDEUTSCHE BANK LONDON
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
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ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLCGLOBAL OIL AND GAS CONFERENCE DEUTSCHE BANK LONDON
LONDONSEPTEMBER 27 2012
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SEPTEMBER 27, 2012