Role of Integrated Environment Assessment Models in
Developing Nations
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop onIntegrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region
October 24-26, 2002, New Delhi
Prof. Dr. Tsuneyuki MoritaNational Institute for Environmental Studies
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International Scientific Activities
Framework of APEISWSSD
Propose Asia-Pacific model
ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting
ECO ASIA Panel
Policy Guidance Scientific database and options
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Other international projects
Create linkages and cooperative structures
International organizations
(ADB, UNEP, UNU)
APN
Joint project collaboration
Research on innovative and strategic policy options
Integrated Environmental
Monitoring
Integrated Environmental
Assessment
Sub-projects
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Management Framework
· Representatives of each sub-project and APN experts
· Representatives of each sub-project and APN experts
Research Coordination Committee (RCC)→Coordination between each sub-project→Development of a draft overall research plan
· Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries· Members of RCC· Representatives from international
organizations
· Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries· Members of RCC· Representatives from international
organizations
ECO ASIA Panel →Review, endorsement and coordination of the overall project →Forum for coordination between scientific activities and policy makers
· Environmental ministers and international organizations from the Asia-Pacific region
· Environmental ministers and international organizations from the Asia-Pacific region
ECO ASIA →Forum for policy discussion based on outcomes of scientific activities and provider of policy guidance
IEMIEM IEAIEA RISPORISPO Sub-Projects
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Objectives of APEIS• To develop scientific knowledge-based tools and innovative
strategy options to promote informed decision-making• To promote regional cooperation and capacity building• To propose a model of a regional initiative to substantiate and
realize the Plan of Implementation for the WSSD
Three Sub-Projects• IEM: to develop an integrated environmental monitoring system
• IEA: to provide integrated models of the environment and economy, as well as a strategic database
• RISPO: to propose innovative and strategic policy options and policy inventories
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Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA)
• A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an ecosystem/health impact model, a water resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model and an energy technology model
• Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use • Systematic projections of environmental trends as well
as assessments of innovative options based on the above models and database
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Participating OrganizationsNIES (Japan); Kyoto University (Japan); Energy Research Institute (China); Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research(China); Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (India); Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand); Korea Environment Institute (Korea); Sangmyung University (Korea); Universiti Putra Malaysia (Malaysia)
Calling for wider participation
Capacity Building Activities(1) Assessment models are transferred with detailed manuals (2) Experts are invited to NIES or participating organizations
to participate in the model development process (3) The 11stst Capacity Building Workshop on IEACapacity Building Workshop on IEA will be held in
October 2002 in DelhiOctober 2002 in Delhi, India.
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Why is Innovation Required for Why is Innovation Required for Environmental Policies?Environmental Policies?
Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection
Eco
nom
ic
Eco
nom
ic
grow
thgr
owth
very strict very strict tradeoffs tradeoffs
in Asiain Asia
Introduction of innovations
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
SO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
[m
illio
n t
]
Actual emissions
Predicted emissions without control
Reduction by fuel switch
Reduction by Industrial Structure Change
Reduction by Flue-gas Desulfurization
9
Actual Investments for Flue-Gas Desulfurizationand Model Calculation Results(1960-1990)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Flue
-Gas
Des
ulfu
rizat
io In
vest
men
t
Actual Values
Model Estimate Values
(Billons $U.S.)
Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with economic development ?economic development ?
(1) Technological development was essential to reduce (1) Technological development was essential to reduce the costs of pollution abatement.the costs of pollution abatement.
(2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was (2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in technology development.technology development.
(3) Environmental investment created new businesses (3) Environmental investment created new businesses and industries in Japan, which increased Japan’s GDP.and industries in Japan, which increased Japan’s GDP.
(4) Such environmental investment improved not only the (4) Such environmental investment improved not only the quality of products, but also production processes and quality of products, but also production processes and recycling processes in factories, which in turn recycling processes in factories, which in turn encouraged Japan’s long-term development.encouraged Japan’s long-term development.
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1885 1990
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
Per
Cap
ita S
O2
[tS
] Japan
12
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 5000 25000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
Per
Cap
ita S
O2[
tS]
18701990
10000 15000 20000
Japan
US
13
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
Per
Cap
ita S
O2
[tS
] Japan
US
China
14
If China follows US and European experience, - - -If China follows US and European experience, - - -
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0 10000 20000 30000 40000Per Capita GDP [US$]
Per
Cap
ita
SO
2 [t
S]
Following US/Europe
US
Japan
China
China
Following JapanFollowing but preceding Japan
If China follows Japanese experience, If China follows Japanese experience, and if China precede Japan - - -and if China precede Japan - - -If China follows Japanese experience, - - -If China follows Japanese experience, - - -
15AUS
JPNCHN
IDN
IND
KOR
PHLTHA
7.8 16
112
203
12
119
1.422
2.6
65
9.4
37
0.6131.7
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Production of Environmental Industriesin the Asia-Pacific Major Countries (billion US$)
Estimated by AIM model
Year 2002
Year Year 20322032
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PolicymakingProcess
AIM(Asia)
IMAGE(Netherlands)
GCAM( USA)
MIT(USA)
Integrated Assessment
ecology
policy sciences
hydraulics
meteorology
geochemistrypaleo-
climatology
geophysicsAtmosphericChemistry economics
pedology
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What is Integrated Assessment (IA) ?
A framework for the "best available synthesis of current scientific, technical, economic, and sociopolitical
knowledge" (IPCC 1995).
History
beginning 1970s1st IA : Climatic Impacts Assessment Program (CIAP)
late 1970sFormal computer simulation models were introduced
during 1980sIA trials in ozone layer, acid rain, and climate change
issues 1990s
Rapid increase of interest in the IA and many progresses in computer simulation models as a core tool
of IA.
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Integrated assessment and Capacity BuildingIntegrated assessment and Capacity Building
integrated assessmentintegrated assessment approaches have led to approaches have led to improvements in communicationimprovements in communication between between policy-makers and scientistspolicy-makers and scientists
the development of the development of Integrated Assessment Integrated Assessment ModelModel has greatly has greatly improved the abilityimproved the ability of, and of, and incentivesincentives for, scientists and policy makers to for, scientists and policy makers to integrate their research and governanceintegrate their research and governance activitiesactivities
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the development of integrated assessment the development of integrated assessment approaches has approaches has created a competitive situationcreated a competitive situation among science and policy fields, which among science and policy fields, which encourage new research and policymakingencourage new research and policymaking
therefore, therefore, long-term joint research programlong-term joint research program for for integrated assessment is one of integrated assessment is one of very effectivevery effective way to build way to build capacity for comprehensive capacity for comprehensive policymakingpolicymaking
Integrated assessment and Capacity BuildingIntegrated assessment and Capacity Building(cont.)(cont.)