Download - Roger Blandford KIPAC Stanford
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ASPERA 121 xi 2011
Roger BlandfordKIPAC
Stanford
One Hundred Years of Cosmic Ray Physics
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ASPERA 221 xi 2011
Roger BlandfordKIPAC
Stanford
…mi ritrovai per una selva oscura…
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ASPERA 321 xi 2011
"Nel mezzo del cammin di nostra vita mi ritrovai per una selva oscura ché la diritta via era smarrita.”
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ASPERA 4
• Financial Uncertainty– Global economic as well as scientific connectivity– Second most famous quotation from Dante’s Inferno!
• First is completely unrelated to proposing scientific programs
• Dark Matter and Energy– The 96 per cent is occupying the universe and confronting the
wealth- and black hole-creating 4 percent– Race to detect DM below, on and above ground– Progress in measurement CMB,
• Is DE L?• |w+1| < 0.1now; <0.01? with LSST, Euclid, WFIRST?• cf GR testing
21 xi 2011
“Midway on our life's journey, I found myself in dark woods, The right road lost”
Allen et al
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SLAC 5
"for the discovery of the accelerating expansion of the
Universe through observations of distant supernovae”
31 x 2011
Saul Perlmutter Adam Reiss Brian Schmidt
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ASPERA 621 xi 2011
One Hundred Years of Cosmic Ray Physics
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ASPERA 7
One Hundred Years of Solitude
• Magical Realism– Literary style for new funding proposals?
• Cosmic ray physics is the mother of high energy astro- and particle
physics – b+, m, p found in cosmic rays– X-, g-ray astronomy techniques– Great recent progress
• MeV- chronometry• PeV- composition, spectra• ZeV – GZK, Fe vs p• Neutrinos?21 xi 2011
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ASPERA 821 xi 2011
Also Denver, Colorado June 26-28
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ASPERA 9
Hamlet
21 xi 2011
…I could be bounded in a nutshell and count myself a king of infinite space…
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ASPERA 10
Hamlet
• Inner Space – Outer Space– Range of length, time grown from ~106 to ~1060
– Is “outer space” infinite?• Project manager‘s lament?
21 xi 2011
To be, or not to be…Slings and Arrows of outrageous Fortune……take Arms against a Sea of troubles…
• EM slings propel e/p arrows?• Extreme astrophysics • How does the Crab nebula (light years)
accelerate electrons to 5PeV energy in < Larmor radius (light hours)?
Buehler, Fermi
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ASPERA 11
Faust• Parable concerning scientific inquiry
– Big Science?– Universe has made a pact with Mephistopheles?
• Inflation and dark energy?– Did inflation happen more than once?– Is dark energy an issue in particle physics?
• It seems to be a quintessentially [sic] classical matter, like oceanography?• Inflation on particle physics scale, unlike dark energy?
– If dark energy is an inflationary encore then the universe has hope for redemption!
21 xi 2011
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ASPERA 12
War and Peace• Developing an Internatioal Program
Projects: convoluted, complex, costly requiring competition, cooperation, collaboration to complete– What is the fate of the vanquished?
• Majority of losers in downselect need to join winners?• Particle physics custom not astrophysics?
• “Violent” Universe– Massive and stellar spinning black holes
• Explosive formation – Gravitational radiation?
• Ultrarelativistic jets – G ~ 1000 in GRB?
• Efficient machines– ~0.3 in AGN
– Why no VHE neutrinos from IceCube?21 xi 2011
9’th draft!!
McKinney+B
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ASPERA 13
Iliad, Odyssey• Iliad -first decadal
survey?– Beware Trojan horse projects with inadequate cost and risk assessment
• Astroparticle Acceleration– Unipolar induction– Wave particle scattering– Good for MeV – ZeV acceleration– Need to understand astrophysics to
validate dark matter detection – Inspired new terrestrial methods 21 xi 2011
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NRAO Centenary 1421 vi 2057
Candide• Optimism vs acceptance of adversity
– Professor Pangloss (Leibnitz)• Metaphysico-theologico-cosmolo-nigogology• All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds
– Cultivate your garden• Anthropic Principle?
– Things were as they were because we are as we are
– Teleological only in sense of a variational principle?
– Becomes less relevant as we explain more? • Emilie du Chatelet - Voltaire
– French Principia, infrared?, energy,var p??
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ASPERA 15
Bhagavad Gita• Organization of a confusing world
– Classification/Taxonomy– Astroparticle physics is not well-defined
• May be healthy– Best to follow the science as a new field evolves
• Military and Spiritual (Arjuna and Krishna)– Military – Industrial – Cosmic complex?
• Detectors, spacecraft, rockets…• Needs to be understood better
• Cycle of Life– Clusters, galaxies, stars, planets more like people than particles!– Understanding astrophysics is prerequisite to extracting fundamental physics– Real progress is possible
21 xi 2011
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ASPERA 16
I Ching• 4000 year old “Book of Changes”
– Archiving, mining astroparticle data, simulation– Desire for Peta (now)->Exa-> Zetascale (eg SKA)– Current high throughput/performance supercomputing requires 3 MW/Pflops– Radically new approaches in a green future– Will also need new approaches to data rights
• Mathematical structure– c.f. Eightfold Way (MGM)– May know MH (~125GeV?), q13 (small?) in a year?– If no other new physics from LHC, DM searches etc
• Completion of basic particle physics for now??– c.f. chemistry
• Hope Not!!!21 xi 2011
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ASPERA 17
Never Let Me Go
21 xi 2011
Ishiguro
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ASPERA 18
• Productive facilities vs new initiative– Operations vs renewal
• Ground-based observatories may need 10% capital cost per year for 50 years
• Challenge to management human, material infrastructure• Don’t just plan to construct, also plan to deconstruct
• Observe the growth of structure in the universe– Inflation ->Microwave background ->Epoch of reionization ->Galaxies measured using:
• Baryon acoustic oscillation• Gravitational lensing• Supernovae• Rich clusters
– Distinguish G=8pT+Lg from G-Lg=8pT 21 xi 2011
A Pale View of the Hills
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ASPERA 19
Don Quixote• Focus on one area can lead to disorientation, delusion in another
– Politics follows different rules from science – Different values for a different purpose!– Good physicists are not always effective politicians!
• Windmills– Cosmic windmills tap astrophysical flows to create rotation and
power cosmic sources– Astroparticle physicists are proving to be quite employable outside our field
• Trained for problem solving in new areas• Energy sector, Earth science, computing, finance…
– Next generation will need to be adapatable
21 xi 2011
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20
Summary• Scope of Astroparticle Physics is untidy
– Good! Follow the science not the politics– Astrophysics is particle physics noise (and vv!) which must be understood
• Pace of discovery is accelerating (like the universe)– Enduring legacy of our time– Infiltrating popular culture
• Union of proposed ASPERA activities is VERY ambitious– Convolution, Complexity, Cost of facilities/missions require: Competition, Cooperation, Collaboration on an international scale– Choices made; schedules coordinated; facilities terminated
• International Planning is Essential– Plans perhaps less so! National sponsors ultimately decide– Fora like ASPERA are very important
1 xi 2011 ASPERA