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PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate
Foundation is strictly prohibited
ROADMAP 2050 A prac/cal guide to a prosperous, low-‐carbon Europe
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ROADMAP 2050 PARTNERS
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Transmission System Operators
NGOs
Manufacturers
Plus 40 more companies, NGOs and research institutes
Core Working Group participants Further outreach
Siemens
WWF
KEY STAKEHOLDERS WERE INVOLVED BY PROVIDING INPUT AND REVIEWING RESULTS
Utilities
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THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARE SUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
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1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve 2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline 3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries) SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis
AT LEAST 80% CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY & FUEL SHIFT GIVE OVERALL DEMAND
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ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050 (EU-27 + Norway & Switzerland)
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Energy production mix over the year, TWh per week
40% RES 30% CCS
30% nuclear
60% RES 20% CCS
20% nuclear
80% RES 10% CCS
10% nuclear
THREE SPECIFIC PATHWAYS MODELED INCLUDING BOTH GENERATION AND GRID COSTS
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RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTES TO CONSISTENT SUPPLY
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COMBINING REGIONAL DEMAND CURVES REDUCES VOLATILITY
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INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS
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13 13
3
2
2
1
2
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20
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Requirements on top of the baseline
2050, GW
CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UP CAPACITY
40% RES 30% CCS 30% nuclear
80% RES 10% CCS 10% nuclear
60% RES 20% CCS 20% nuclear
Transmission & genera/on capacity requirements
Transmission Back-‐up and balancing RES curtail-‐ment1, % DR, % Pathways
Baseline
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ANNUAL CAPEX DEVELOPMENT
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COST OF ELECTRICITY
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LONG TERM EU27 GDP
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DECARBONIZING THE ECONOMY SAVES MONEY