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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:4/60
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:7/60
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/ á R ¹º
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e.g., « � Í Ö ò
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Source:
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:31/60
� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �
g æ çd èé _Æ êë 5 4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó4ì w íî ïð '. ' ñò ó ôô ôô
s �
Normal Accident TheorySociologist Charles Perrow,(1984)
identifies three conditions that make a system likely to be susceptible to Normal Accidents:
1.The system is complex
2.The system is tightly coupled
3.The system has catastrophic potential
Redundancy
P � �²
:
1.
f õ � c� � * c 6 � �
2.
f å ã � á� ô
(
ö y õ � ÷×
/
1 øù úû)
3.
f á ü �Í Î ý l ´ ç 2 3 * þ² * � N é�
High Reliability OrganizationFive characteristics of High Reliability
Organizations that have been identified ÿ
Weick, K. E.; Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, 2001.
�that keeps them working well when
facing unexpected situations.
1.Preoccupation with failure(
S c � Ê �ô 12 1 â � ab
)
2.Reluctance to simplify interpretations (
�� ß �! � � Û� Ô ý© � �
why)
3.Sensitivity to operations
ÿ [ � �ã � � �
4.Commitment to resilience(
� Ô �
)
5.Deference to expertise
ÿ � ± Ø ä �
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:32/60
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Risk = Severity * Likelihood'( � Ä
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:33/60
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something had been done to prevent the accident (
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i M ¦ j �¤ L¤ N K �K L £ � MK h J ¨ M L £
2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:34/60
� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Known vs Unknown
Micro Viewpoint ��
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ç ä/
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m � n P " â � � X Po p
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:35/60
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:36/60
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0 ð � æ hi
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:37/60
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Source: http://tx.technion.ac.il/~gordoncn/05072011/3.Nancy_presentation.ppt
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Source:http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/2007Elliott,PRK,etal_'EverydaySafety'.pdf
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:41/60
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:43/60
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2016/08 Philosophy and Methodology of Risk Management P:44/60
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_ ö � 6 L M 6 N � TU � � ; � � �
ë < ý 1 � Ò � ú Ì �= �Source:http://www.chemtron.net/system.htm
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