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Risk management: From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
Mikko Pohjola, THL
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Contents
• Lecture• Round-up of (open) EHRM• Development of shared beliefs to guide action
• Discussion• Agumentation on the use/ban of Pandemrix
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Round-up of (open) EHRM
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Round-up
• EHRM is “the practice of organizing decision making and taking actions upon known and perceived risks to environment and health”
• i.e. trying to influence what actually happens regarding risks
• Many factors drive RM - systematic science-based decision support (assessments) is one of them• Is or should it be the most important/influential?
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Societal setting for RA/RM
Risk assessment is collection, synthesis and interpretation of scientific information and value judgments for use of the society
Risk management is use and implementation of that information
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Round-up
• Systematic RM identifies needs for assessments and implements knowledge from assessments (and elsewhere) to practice
• Basically the aim of assessment and management is (or should be!) the same: good societal decisions and actions• -> Decision-oriented assessment (DA)
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Risk analysis
Risk assessment Risk management
Hazard identification
Exposure assessment
Dose-response assessment
Options generation
Policy selection & implementation
Policy effect evaluation
Options evaluation
Risk characterization
Lessons from the KTL Centre of excellence in environmental health risk analysis
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Does risk analysis pay off?
Risk assessment Risk management
Hazard identification
Exposure assessment
Dose-response assessment
Risk communication
Options generation
Policy selection & implementation
Policy effect evaluation
Options evaluation
Risk characterization
Million euro cycle
Billion euro cycle
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General RA/RM framework
• Systematic analysis according to societal needs
Assessment Use
Assessmentprocess
Assessmentproduct
Decision making
Knowledgeneed
Productrequirement
Processrequirement
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Why do we do modelling? (2)
Decision options are difficult to compare. Models can summarise important points and help us choose.
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Round-up
• EH is complex in many ways• Causes, effects, actors, roles, relations, …• Physical, chemical, biological, social, technological,
economical, political, …• Many approaches exist, most confine themselves to
certain specifics of EH• Useful within their own boundaries, but not sufficient to
address all complexity of EH
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NRC: Red book
Extrapolation
Measurements and population characteristics
Hazard identification
Dose-response assessment
Exposure assessment
Risk characterization
Regulatory options
Evaluation of options
Decisions and actions
Risk assessment Risk management
Observations
NRC 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Progress. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
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REACH – EU Chemical safety
Hazard assessment▪ Hazard identification▪ Classification & labeling▪ Derivation of threshold levels ▪ PBT/vPvB assessment
Exposure assessment▪ Exposure scenarios building▪ Exposure estimation
Risk characterisation
Information: available vs. required/needed▪ Substance intrinsic properties▪ Manufacture, use, tonnage, exposure, risk management
Dangerous or PBT/vPvB
Risk controlled
no yes
noyes
Iteration
Chemical safety report
ECHA 2008. Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment. Guidance for the Implementation of REACH.
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Round-up
• The traditional model of separating expert, decision maker and stakeholder/public contributions does not serve “knowledge-based societal actions upon issues relevant to environment and health” optimally
• Well-reasoned, sustainable policies & practices?• Influence of assessment on policy/practice?• Meaningfulness/effectiveness of participation?
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Purposes for participation
Other factors
Assessment
Participation
OutcomeDecision making
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IDEA framework (IEHIA/INTARESE)
Briggs: A framework for integrated environmental health impact assessment of systemic risks. Environmental Health 2008, 7:61.
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Round-up• EXAMPLE: climate change is a major (and extremely
complex) environmental health issue• Think of e.g. CC related decision making and actions in the City
of Kuopio• What risks are related?• What causes (for risks) are there?• What effects do they have?• Whose actions relate to the causes?• Who are influenced by the effects?• Who can influence (manage) the risks? How?• Who are relevant actors regarding the risks?• On what basis does/should they act upon the risks?
• Do common/traditional assessment/management approaches serve the needs of CC related DM?
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Round-up
• No common solid theory for EHRM exists• Common frameworks are mostly procedural and
oversimplified• Reality of RM is sometimes far from what is
imag(in)ed in EHRM and assessment frameworks
• A proper theory should better• …recognize the nature of actual needs• …serve the plurality of ways to address the needs• …be applicable across the whole range of needs,
from the simplest to the most complex
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EHRM framework
The Presidential / Congressional commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Final Report Volume 1, 1997.
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NRC: Science and decisions (Silver book)
NRC 2009. Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
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Round-up
• Change is needed… …and it is already starting to happen
• Assessment-management-stakeholders intertwined• Practice-driven (needs-driven) search for knowledge• Broad scoping: EH issues inherently within a broader
context• Opinions and values as valid inputs• Success determined according to outcomes
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Research question for open risk management
How can scientific information and value judgements be organised for improving societal situations by identifying potential decisions and relevant outcomes in a situation where open participation is allowed?
Emphasis: The decision situation should be clarified.
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Research question for open assessment
How can scientific information and value judgements be organised for improving societal decision-making in a situation where open participation is allowed?
Emphasis: The decision situation is clear, focus on evaluating and choosing good options.
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Open risk management: overview
QRA
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Round-up
• Methods, tools and practices to enable ORM/OA are being developed
• Collaborative learning• Technical support for:
• Collective knowledge creation (=learning)• Implementation of knowledge
• …in a social context, for practical needs• E.g. Opasnet
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Three metaphors of learning
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Round-up• (increased) openness becoming easier to reason for and
easer to be accepted, but many hindrances exist in practice• A cultural change is needed• Plenty of examples come up everyday
Purpose
Method
System
OutcomeUse
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Round-up
• From• Process-centeredness• Separation and disengagement• Narrow scopes• Individual learning (monologue)• Producing and sharing information (dialogue)• Curiosity-driven question setting• …
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Round-up
• Towards• Focusing on content• Openness (in all its aspects)• Rich contextuality and situatedness• Collaboration, co-creation of knowledge (trialogue)• Practice/needs-driven questions• Outcome-orientation• …
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Open risk management
A collaborative game ofquestions and answers
Experts
PublicStakeholders
Decision makers
Other influence
Outcome
Outcome Outcome
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Opasnet
Assessment
Participant’s knowledge
Participant’s knowledge
Participant’s knowledge
Participant’s updated knowledge
Updated assessment
Participant’s updated knowledge
Decision
Decision m
aking
Perce
ption
Perception
Contributio
n
Con
trib
utio
n
Pohjola et al. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Environmental health. Manuscript.
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Outcome-oriented modelling approach
Matthews et al.: Raising the bar? – The challenges of evaluating the outcomes of environmental modelling and software. Environmental Modelling & Software, March 2011, Pages 247-257.
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Properties of good assessment
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Round-up summary/conclusions
• In the end it is all about developing well-founded shared belief systems to guide actions upon issues with great societal relevance
• Intentionally created collective knowledge is a means towards (collectively) desired ends
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Example: what makes a good hammer?
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Development of shared belief systems
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Science and shared belief systems
• Falsification and “scientific method”
• Justified true belief and its problems
• Inference rules
• Shared belief systems
• Shared belief systems as artifacts (intentionally produced objects)• Hypothesis development and testing
• Abductive reasoning and argumentation• Game of questions and answers
• Evaluation of page content in Opasnet
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Discussion
Argumentation on use/ban of Pandemrix