Download - Risk Criteria | Where the answer lies
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Risk CriteriaWhere the Answer Lies
Troy Millen - Principal Safety & Risk EngineerNovember 2016
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Why Do We Quantify Risk?
• Compliance with internal policies/standards
• Regulatory requirement• Aids decision making• People like numbers!
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But can we trust the numbers that are
generated?
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4 Measures of Risk
1 2Individual Risk Per Annum
Location Specific Individual Risk
3 4Potential Loss of Life/Societal Risk
Implied Cost to Avert a Fatality
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Individual Risk1.
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• Derived values can be compared against real-world measures of risk (e.g. the road toll)
• A key criteria where many organisations will have defined tolerability levels
Individual risk is the probability that, within a defined period of time (or for a defined activity), a person will, sadly, become a fatality.
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• Can be reduced by “sharing” the risk across a larger population (but absolute risk stays the same)
• Transient work forces (e.g. drilling) may only have a small percentage of their annual risk accounted for.
Strongly influenced by the amount of time at exposure
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Location Specific
Individual Risk2.
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Location Specific Individual Risk is the likelihood that a fatality would occur at a particular location, based on continuous exposure over a calendar year.
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1 Published exposure criteria available based on land use (e.g. HIPAP 4).
2 Typically represented as contours of constant risk, overlaid on a facility/area plan.
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• At low level typical of offsite criteria, the error margin is large.\
• Criteria relies on “average” industry values (e.g. failure rates)
• Key factors of influence include:• Hole size distribution• Release orientation• Weather conditions• Time of exposure (for fatality probits)
• May not accurately reflect the risk of low frequency transient operating modes
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Potential Loss of Life/Societal
Risk3.
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Represents the aggregation of the individual risk level for all persons exposed to a particular hazard or facility. • Can be displayed as societal (f-N)
risk curves• Facility size impacts results• How do we define the basis for:
• Grouped assets• Pipelines
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Implied Cost to Avert a Fatality
4.
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Derived from the cost to implement a risk reduction measure, divided by the estimated risk benefit.
Requires a dollar value to be placed on lifeCan be easy to manipulate a “do nothing” outcome
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Risk criteria case studies
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1. Hiding from RiskProcess risk based on a parts count, and assumes component failures are randomised.Facility risks are low, premised on infrequency of visits.This approach ignores:
• Human influence on component failures• Personnel presence at other facilities
The issue is compounded when assets span multiple regulatory regimes (e.g. offshore platform and onshore plant)
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Water treatment utilising chlorine gas is delivered from a bank of one tonne drums.Risk contours were directly impacted by the number of drums online, and the number stored at the facility.Reducing the drum bank/storage reduced LSIR contours.
But frequency of truck delivery (down a steep gravel road) increased!
2. Truckload of Risk
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Client standard required that no Major Accident Event (MAE) impaired key safety systems above a target frequency.
• Client standard did not provide a definition of a MAE.
• Initial assessment had MAE (process release) exceeding requirement.
Revision of MAE definition (Jet Fire, Pool Fire, Explosion)
lead to compliance with criteria.
3. Cutting it Fine
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Approach
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To survive post-event scrutiny, numerical analysis should be used as a tool to inform risk arguments, not considered to provide
the ultimate answer.
Be transparent, and avoid black-box approaches.
Use a combination of Quantitative
AND Qualitative approaches.
Make conservative assumptions, and refine as
required.
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Understand the factors driving risk results. Explore sensitivity to key assumptions, and provide justification for their use.Be aware of risk trade-off - look beyond the study scope to avoid risk transfer.
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