Download - Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea Pilot study Ribe Dike Progress report of sub-project SP7
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.1
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Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea
Pilot study Ribe Dike
Progress report of sub-project SP7
Workshop 12 - 13 May 2004,Norden, Germany
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.2
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Contents
• Location of pilot study area (by T. Piontkowitz)
• Approach (by T. Piontkowitz)
• Failure probability of the Ribe sea defence (by A. Kortenhaus)
• Vulnerability analysis (by T. Piontkowitz)
• Questions & discussion
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.3
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Location of pilot study area
Ribe Dike
• length ca. 18,4 km
• protected area 6.826 ha
• year of construction1911-1914
• 1. reinforcement 1924-1925
• 2. reinforcement (flattening of outer slope) 1978-1980
• 2 sluices (Ribe Å and Konge Å) and 2 smaller outlets
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.4
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Cross-sections and topography
River, stream
Wetland
Lake
Ribe Dike
Profile + stationing no.
Sluice
Salt marsh edge
under 0
0,0 - 0,5 m
0,5 - 1,0 m
1,0 - 1,5 m
1,5 - 2,0 m
2,0 - 2,5 m
2,5 - 3,0 m
3,0 - 3,5 m
3,5 - 4,0 m
4,0 - 4,5 m
4,5 - 5,0 m
over 5 m (DVR90)
• selected from a number of existing cross-sections (former surveys)
• 4 cross-sections north of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 250°), 2 cross-sections south of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 290°)
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.5
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Approach
Risk assessment divided into three parts
Part 2
Vulnerability analysis
• based on ProDeich model(cooperation with LWI)
• 6 cross-sections
• include valuation analysis and damage analysis
• data collection by DCA
• damage models in cooperation with consultants
• results: (i) spatial use and material assets over elevation (ii) definition of damage models
Part 3
Dike breach scenarios and
inundation simulation
• definition of dike breach scenarios
• inundation simulation
Part 1
Failure probability of Ribe dike
Risk of Ribe sea defence and its hinterland
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.6
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.7
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Valued
Direct Tangible Damage
Buildings
Electronic installation• Pumps
• High voltage line
Economic sector• Crop
• Stock
• Movable property
Household• Movable property
Infrastructure• Roads
• Railway
Not Valued
Direct Intangible Damage
Number of population
• Night and day population
Vehicles(are normally removed during evacuation)
Tourism(tourist on the spot, number of beds)
Vulnerability analysis - risk elements
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.8
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BBR-registry: Local registry
Containing 128 columns
Land registry
Registry of town and country planning
Registry of valuation for rating
Meadow of different crops
Registry of real estate
Registry of livestock population
OIS-registry:Public information registry
ESR-registry:
SVUR-registry:
PLAN-registry:
MATR-registry:
CHR-registry:
Crop:
Vulnerability analysis – data sources
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.9
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Topography
Salt marsh edge
under 0 m DVR90
0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90
0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90
1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90
1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90
2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90
2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90
3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90
3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90
4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90
4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90
over 5 m DVR90
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.10
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Fresh water discharge
Stream
Wetland
Lake
Ribe Dike
Profile
Lock
Salt marsh edge
under 0 m DVR90
0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90
0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90
1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90
1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90
2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90
2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90
3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90
3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90
4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90
4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90
over 5 m DVR90
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.11
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Building
Town centre
Greenhouse
High settlement
Industry
Cemetery
Low settlement
Ribe Dike
Salt marsh edge
under 0 m DVR90
0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90
0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90
1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90
1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90
2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90
2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90
3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90
3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90
4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90
4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90
over 5 m DVR90
Settlement
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.12
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Infrastructure
Ribe Dike
Tele pylon
Pumps
Windmill
High-voltage line
Second road
Road over 6 m
Road 3-6 m
Path
Expressway
Railway track
Technical area
Area
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.13
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Land use
Salt marsh edge
Town centre
Cemetery
Industry
Greenhouse
High settlement
Low settlement
Building
Ribe Dike
Windmill
Tele pylon
Pumps
Roads
Technical area
Stream
Lake
Water area
Recreation
Sports park
Moor
Trees
Wood/Park
Farm Land
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.14
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Crop distribution
Salt marsh edge
Another winter grain
Spring grain
Arable pasture grass
Permanent grassland
Set a-side
Forest
Winter wheat
Non-farm area
No information
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.15
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Valuation analysis - crops
Crops Prices per ha
Crop Area Price per ha. Sum value [ha] [Dkr.] [Dkr.]
Winter wheat 1.074 6.300 6.765.375Another winter grain 315 4.400 1.385.010Spring grain 2.421 4.950 11.985.642Arable pasture grass 2.059 4.550 9.366.410Permanent grassland 516 3.150 1.626.632Set a-side 558 0 0Forest 4 0 0No information 1.806 0 0Non-farm area 1.150 0 0Sum 9.974 31.129.068
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.16
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Valuation analysis - crops
4,5-5,0
3,5-4,0
3,0-3,5
2,5-3,0
2,0-2,5
1,5-2,0
1,0-1,5
0,5-1,0
0,0-0,5
Below 0
m DVR90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Values (million Dkr.)
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.17
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m DVR90
0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0
Property values (1000 million Dkr.)
4,5-5,0
4,0-4,5
3,5-4,0
3,0-3,5
2,5-3,0
2,0-2,5
1,5-2,0
1,0-1,5
0,5-1,0
0,0-0,5
Valuation analysis - buildings
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.18
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Damage models
2 examples:
1. Buildings
2. Economic sector - movable property
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.19
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Buildings (Water level)
Water level out side the building (m)
y = 14301 x + 77073
model water level*0,1+model property value*0,9
Building
Lineær (Building)
0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 4,5
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
Compensation for damage (1000 kr.)
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Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.20
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Economic sector – movable property
Movabel property
Model
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
Compensation for damage (1000
kr.)
0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
Water level out side the building (m)