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a. REPORT
Organizing Principles for Social Networks and Dynamics
14. ABSTRACT
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF:
PPT of talk given at the Center for Vision Research at U Central Florida March 25 - 26 2013
Invited tour of facility by Dr. Mubarak Shah
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U.S. Army Research Office
P.O. Box 12211
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211
15. SUBJECT TERMS
Tipping points, scalar stochastic diff eqn, expected times to consensus
Chjan C. Lim
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Office of Sponsored Research
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Troy, NY 12180 -
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Chjan Lim
518-276-6904
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Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98)
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Organizing Principles for Social Networks and Dynamics
Report Title
ABSTRACT
PPT of talk given at the Center for Vision Research at U Central Florida March 25 - 26 2013
Invited tour of facility by Dr. Mubarak Shah
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Organizing Principles in NetworkOrganizing Principles in Network Science- Scalar SDE,Tipping
Points of opinion dynamics
Chjan Lim, Mathematical Sciences, jRPI
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FundingFunding
Main: ARO grant 2009 – 2013 we thank CMain: ARO grant 2009 2013 we thank C. Arney, R. Zachary; ARO grant 2012 –2015 we thank P Iyer2015 we thank P. IyerSecondary: ARL grants 2009 – 2012
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MiscMisc
Collaborators: Dr W Zhang, Y Treitman, B g,Szymanski, G Korniss
Papers: Weituo Zhang, Chjan C. Lim, B. Szymanksi, “Analytic Treatment ofWeituo Zhang, Chjan C. Lim, B. Szymanksi, Analytic Treatment of
Tipping Points for Social Consensus in Large Random Networks”, Phys Rev E 86 (6), 061134, 2012Weituo Zhang, Chjan Lim, and Boleslaw Szymanski, Tipping
Points of Diehards in Social Consensus on Large Random Networks, Complex Networks, Proc. 3rd Workshop on Complex Networks, CompleNet, Melbourne, FL, March 7-9, 2012, Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol. 424, Springer, Berlin, Germany, g g y2013, pp. 161-168.
Yosef Treitman, Chjan Lim, W. Zhang and A. Thompson, “Naming Game with Greater Stubbornness and Unilateral Zealots”, IEEE NSW Conf April 29 May 1 2013 West Point NYNSW Conf., April 29 – May 1 2013, West Point, NY
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Tipping Point of NGTipping Point of NG A minority of committed agents can persuade
the whole network to a global consensusthe whole network to a global consensus. The critical value for phase transition is called
the “tipping point”.
J. Xie, S. Sreenivasan, G. Korniss, W. , , ,Zhang, C. Lim and B. K. Szymanski PHYSICAL REVIEW E (2011)
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Saddle node bifurcationSaddle node bifurcation
Node Saddle NodeBelow Critical
unstable NodeAbove Critical
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Meanfield Assumption and Complete N t kNetwork
The network structure is ignored. Every node is only affected by the meanfieldnode is only affected by the meanfield.The meanfield depends only on the
f ti ( b ) f ll t f dfractions(or numbers) of all types of nodes.Describe the dynamics by an equation of
the meanfield (macrostate).
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Scale of consensus time on complet hgraph
382 word Naming Game on complete graph
34
36
38
numerical simulationanalytical result by linear solver
30
32
26
28T/N
20
22
24
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 718
20
log(N)
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Expected Time Spend on Each Macrostate before Consensus (withoutMacrostate before Consensus (without committed agents)
40
50
60
)
10
20
30
T(n A, n
B
60
80
100
60
80
1000
0
20
40
0
20
40
60
nBnA
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NG with Committed Agents0 12>q=0.06<qc
q=0.12>qc
q is the fraction of agents committed in A.When q is below a critical value q the processWhen q is below a critical value qc, the process may stuck in a meta-stable state for a very long time.
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2 Word Naming Game as a 2D d lk2D random walk
n_B
Transient State
P(B+)
P(A+)P(A-) Transient State
Absorbing StateP(B-)
n_A
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Linear Solver for 2-Name NGLinear Solver for 2 Name NG
Have equations:Have equations:
Then we assign an order to the coordinates, make , into vectors, and finally write equations in the linear system form:y q y
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SDE models for NG, NG and NGSDE models for NG, NG and NG
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Diffusion vs DriftDiffusion vs Drift
Diffusion scales are clear from broadeningDiffusion scales are clear from broadening of trajectories bundles
Drift governed by mean field nonlinear ODE b f th /ODEs can be seen from the average / midlines of bundles
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Assume a very natural social – political condition, generalizing NG
Where the network is divided into k+1 sub-populations
Each with a different fixed propensity to signal/vote/utter the opinion A
When hearing the word A a node from subgroup j < k will move to subgroup j+1When hearing the word A a node from subgroup j < k will move to subgroup j+1Likewise hearing B a node from j > 0 will move to subgroup j-1
The probability that a node from subgroup j will signal A is j/k
Same node has probability 1 – j/k of signalling word B
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Additional rules of k-NGAdditional rules of k NG
A node s is drawn at random from theA node s is drawn at random from the network and sends out a signal A with por s signals B with prob = 1 por s signals B with prob = 1 – pNext a node L is drawn at random to
i th i l Areceive the signal A or node L is drawn to receive the signal B
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k-NGk NG
The subgroups j = 0 k correspond toThe subgroups j = 0, k correspond to those nodes that are completely convinced of the B and A opinion resp ORof the B and A opinion resp. OR
E i l tl th d th t ith b 1Equivalently those nodes that with prob 1Signals B, A resp.
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Voting or PollingVoting or Polling
The key network quantity is an averageThe key network quantity is an average network opinion obtained by polling:
p = sum over subgrps j = 0 to k of n(j) j / kN It gives the probability of a speaker chosen g p y p
at random signalling the word A
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Stochastic DynamicsStochastic Dynamics
Derivation of k-dim coupled Random Walk:Derivation of k dim coupled Random Walk:
F j 1 t k 1For j = 1 to k-1,n(j,t+1) = n(j,t) + 1, -1 with resp. prob.P(+1) = p(t) n(j-1,t)/N + (1-p(t)) n(j+1,t)/NP(-1) = (1-p(t)) n(j t)/N + p(t) n(j t)/NP( 1) (1 p(t)) n(j,t)/N + p(t) n(j,t)/N = n(j,t)/N
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Random walkRandom walk
For the distinguished subgrps at both endsFor the distinguished subgrps at both ends of the opinion spectrum, j = 0 , k
n(0,t+1) = n(0,t) + 1, 0, -1 with prob.P(+1) = (1-p(t)) n(1,t)/N P(0) = (1-p(t)) n(0,t)/N( ) ( p( )) ( , )P(-1) = p(t) n(0,t)/N
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Subgroup kSubgroup k
n(k t+1) = n(k t) + 1 0 -1 with probn(k,t+1) = n(k,t) + 1, 0, 1 with prob.
P( 1) (t) (k 1 t)/NP(+1) = p(t) n(k-1,t)/NP(0) = p(t) n(k,t)/NP(-1) = (1-p(t)) n(k,t)/N
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Shadow WalkShadow Walk
Define a scalar nonlazy random walk onDefine a scalar nonlazy random walk on the quantity p whose consensus times are lower bounds for the actual expected ptimes.
p(t+1) = p(t) + 1/kN, -1/kN with prob
P(+1) = p(t) P(-1) = 1-p(t)P(-1) = 1-p(t)
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SDE or Diffusion ModelSDE or Diffusion Model
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Solution of SDESolution of SDE
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Expected Times to ConsensusExpected Times to Consensus
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Expected times - exit times – stop timesExpected times exit times stop times
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continuedcontinued
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Higher stubbornness – same qualitative, b t ltrobust result
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Higher stubbornness – same qualitative, b t ltrobust result
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Other NG variants – same 1D manifoldOther NG variants same 1D manifold
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3D plot of trajectory bundles –stubbornness K = 10 as example ofstubbornness K 10 as example of variant (Y. Treitman and C. Lim 2012)
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Consensus time distributionConsensus time distribution
Recursive relationship of P(X, T), the probability p ( ) p yfor consensus at T starting from X, Q is the transition matrix.
Take each column for the same T as a vector:
Take each row for the same X as a vector:
Calculate the whole table P(X,T) iteratively.
Take each row for the same X as a vector:
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Consensus time distributionConsensus time distribution
x 10-4 p=0.1 x 10-7 p=0.06
1.4
1.6
1.8x 10 p
numericalanalytical
3
3.5
4x 10 p
numericalanalytical
0.8
1
1.2
P(T
c)
1 5
2
2.5
P(T
c)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.5
1
1.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 104
0
Tc
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
x 107
0
Tc
Red lines are calculated through the recursive equation.Blue lines are statistics of consensus times from numerical simulation(very expensive)Blue lines are statistics of consensus times from numerical simulation(very expensive),(done by Jerry Xie)
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Consensus Time distributionConsensus Time distribution
1p=0.08
p=0.12
0.7
0.8
0.9 N=50N=100N=150y=exp(x+1) 0.5
0.6
st. normalN=50N=100N=200N=400N=800
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
P(T
) * s
td(T
)
0.3
0.4
P(T
c) * s
td(T
c) N 800
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.50
0.1
0.2
4 2 0 2 4 60
0.1
0.2
T-E[T] / std(T) -4 -2 0 2 4 6( Tc-E[Tc] ) / std(Tc)
Below critical, consensus time distribution tends to exponential. Above critical, consensus time distribution tends to Gaussian.
For large enough system, only the mean and the variance of the consensus time is needed.
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NG on RGGNG on RGG
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NG on RGG past Tipping pointNG on RGG past Tipping point
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Homogeneous Pairwis AssumptionHomogeneous Pairwis AssumptionThe mean field is not uniform but varies for the nodes with different opinionwith different opinion.
AP(·|A)
Mean field BP(·|B)
ABP(·|A)
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Numerical comparisonNumerical comparison
0.9
1
0.7
0.8
p
0.5
0.6
pApB
pAB
Theoretical
0.3
0.4Mean field
0 1
0.2
0 3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200
0.1
t
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Trajectories mapped to 2D macrostate space
0.9
1
0.7
0.8mean field<k>=3<k>=4<k>=5
0.5
0.6
p B
<k>=10<k>=50
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
pA
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Concentration of the consensus timeConcentration of the consensus time
10 5
11
10
10.5
9
9.5
T 0.95
)
8
8.5ln(T
<k>=5 simulation
7
7.5
k 5 simulation<k>=5 pair approx<k>=10 simulation<k>=10 pair appromean field
4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 86.5
ln(N)
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Change of the tipping point w.r.t. the daverage degree
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T he local mean field for the node with opinion C : )
P(· IC) = [P (AIC) ,P (B IC),P(ABIC)Jr,c = A,B,AB
The number of different type of links:
P(· IA)(i) = P(AIA) P(BIA)
P(ABIA)
P(·IB)(i) = P(AIB) P(BIB)
P(ABIB)
P(· IAB)(i) =
P(AIAB) P(BIAB)
P(ABIAB)
1 ---------
2LA-A + LA-B + LA-AB
1 --------
L A-B+ 2LB-B + LB-AB
1
LA-B
2LB- B
LB- AB
- ---------L A-AB
LB- AB 2LAB-AB LA - AB + LB- AB + 2LAB- AB
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Analyze the dynamicsAnalyze the dynamics1.Choosing one type of links, say A-B, and A is the listener.2.Direct change: A-B changes into AB-B.3.Related changes: since A changes into AB, <k>-1 related links C-A change into C-AB. The probability distribution of C g p yis the local mean field P(·|A).
C
Direct
Related×(<k>-1)
A BCDirect
C
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Local mean field equationLocal mean field equation
Normalized equation:
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SDE model of NGSDE model of NG
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Merits of SDE modelMerits of SDE model
Include all types of NG and other Include all types of NG and other communication models in one framework and distinguish them by two parametersand distinguish them by two parameters.Present the effect of system size explicitly.
C ll li t d d i i t 1 dCollapse complicated dynamics into 1-d SDE equation on the center manifold.
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ThanksThanks