NREL is a na*onal laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Renewable Electricity Futures: A Technical Assessment of 30-‐90% Renewable Electricity by 2050 in the U.S.
Pathways to Climate SoluEons: Assessing Energy Technology and Policy InnovaEon
Aspen, CO, Feb 2014 Douglas J. Arent, Ph.D., MBA ExecuEve Director, JISEA/NREL
Renewable Electricity Futures Study Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent, D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D. eds. 4 vols. NREL/TP-‐6A20-‐52409. Golden, CO: Na*onal Renewable Energy Laboratory. hWp://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/.
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Renewable Electricity Futures Scope RE Futures does…. RE Futures does not… Iden*fy commercially available RE genera*on technology combina*ons that meet up to 80% or more of projected 2050 electricity demand in every hour of the year.
Consider policies, new opera*ng procedures, evolved business models, or market rules that could facilitate high levels of RE genera*on.
Iden*fy electric sector characteris*cs associated with high levels of RE genera*on.
Fully evaluate power system reliability.
Explore a variety of high renewable electricity genera*on scenarios.
Forecast or predict the evolu*on of the electric sector.
Es*mate the associated U.S. electric sector carbon emissions reduc*ons.
Assess op*mal pathways to achieve a low-‐carbon electricity system.
Explore a select number of economic, environmental and social impacts.
Conduct a comprehensive cost-‐benefit analysis.
Illustrate an RE-‐specific pathway to a clean electricity future to inform the development of integrated porbolio scenarios that consider all technology pathways and their implica*ons.
Provide a defini*ve assessment of high RE genera*on, but does iden*fy areas for deeper inves*ga*on.
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Modeling Framework
Technology cost & performance Resource availability Demand projec?on Demand-‐side technologies Grid opera?ons Transmission costs
Black & Veatch
Technology Teams
Flexible Resources
End-‐Use Electricity
System Opera*ons
Transmission
ABB inc. GridView
(hourly produc?on cost)
rooDop PV penetra?on
2050 mix of generators
does it balance hourly?
ImplicaEons GHG Emissions Water Use Land Use
Direct Costs
Capacity & Genera.on 2010-‐2050
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Scenario Framework
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Demand & Supply AssumpEons
• .
-‐ Only Commercially Mature Technologies -‐ Some Demand Response, based on early tech assessments
-‐ Transport shies toward HEV/PHEV/EVs -‐ Economic Op*miza*on, with curtailment allowed
Key Results
Renewable Electricity Futures Study (2012). Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent, D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D., editors. Lead authors include Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Heath, G.; Augus*ne, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Hall, D.; Lantz, E.; Margolis, R.; Thresher, R.; Hos*ck, D.; Belzer, D.; Hadley, S.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.; Schneider, T.
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0%
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100%
Baseline
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E
40% R
E
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E
60% R
E
70% R
E
80% R
E
90% R
E
% o
f Tot
al G
ener
ated
Ele
ctric
ity
Percent RE
Wind
PV
CSP
Hydropower
Geothermal
Biomass
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Variable Generation
Renewable generaEon resources could adequately supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generaEon in 2050 while balancing hourly supply and demand
Baseline scenario 80% RE-‐ITI scenario
RE-‐ITI scenarios
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All regions of the country could contribute substanEal renewable electricity supply in 2050
80% RE-‐ITI scenario
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A more flexible electric power system is needed to enable electricity supply-‐demand balance with high levels of RE generaEon
• Flexible generators (parEcularly natural gas) • Dispatchable renewables (e.g., biopower, geothermal, CSP with storage
and hydropower) • Demand response (e.g., interrupEble load) • Controlled charging of electric vehicles • Storage • Curtailment • Transmission • GeospaEal diversity of the variable resources to smooth output • CoordinaEng bulk power system operaEons across wider areas
System flexibility can be increased using a broad porMolio of supply-‐ and demand-‐side op?ons, including:
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Electricity supply and demand can be balanced in every hour of the year in each region with 80% electricity from renewable resources*
80% RE-‐ITI scenario
*Full reliability analysis not conducted in RE Futures
Baseline scenario
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Peak →
Off-‐Peak →
80% RE-‐ETI scenario Constrained Transmission scenario
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Coal
0102030405060708090
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Gas CT
051015202530354045
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Coal
024681012141618
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Power (G
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Gas CTBa
selin
e scen
ario
80% RE-‐ITI scena
rio
System flexibility provided through increased ramping and startup-‐shutdown of convenEonal generators, parEcularly in low-‐demand periods
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• In most 80%-‐by-‐2050 RE scenarios, 110-‐190 million MW-‐miles of new transmission lines are added. • AC-‐DC-‐AC interEes are expanded to allow greater power transfer between asynchronous interconnects. • However, 80% RE is achievable even when transmission is severely constrained (30 million MW-‐miles)
—which leads to a greater reliance on local resources (e.g. PV, offshore wind). • Annual transmission and interconnecEon investments in the 80%-‐by-‐2050 RE scenarios range from
$5.7B-‐8.4B/year, which is within the range of recent total investor-‐owned uElity transmission expenditures.
• High RE scenarios lead to greater transmission congesEon, line usage, and transmission and distribuEon losses.
80% RE-‐ITI scenario Constrained Transmission
80% RE is achievable with new Transmission or if new Tx is constrained.
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80% RE Scenario Results Comparison (under RE-‐ITI technology assump?on)
80% RE-‐ITI Constrained Transmission
Constrained Flexibility
Constrained Resources
High-‐Demand
% variable genera*on 43% 47% 39% 47% 49%
New Transmission
119 million MW-‐miles
28 million MW-‐miles
132 million MW-‐miles
188 million MW-‐miles
182 million MW-‐miles
T&D Losses 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% 9.5% 8.9%
Opera*ng Reserve Reqt. 96 GW 114 GW 128 GW 99 GW 143 GW
Interrup*ble Load 38 GW 48 GW 28 GW 38 GW 64 GW
Curtailment (% of var gen) 5.6% 8.6% 7.0% 6.2% 7.1%
Storage 122 GW 129 GW 152 GW 131 GW 136 GW
~
~
~
~
~
~ ~
~
Low-‐Demand
Red arrows indicate magnitude and direcEon of change relaEve to the 80% RE-‐ITI scenario
14 WWW.NREL.GOV/RE_FUTURES
High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reducEons in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use
80% RE scenarios lead to: • ~80% reducEon in 2050 generaEon from both coal-‐fired and natural gas-‐fired sources • ~80% reducEon in 2050 GHG emissions (combusEon-‐only and life cycle) • ~50% reducEon in electric sector water use • Gross land use totaling <3% of conEguous U.S. area; other related impacts include visual,
landscape, noise, habitat, and ecosystem concerns.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annu
al E
lect
ric S
ecto
r Co
nsum
ptio
n (Q
uads
)
Year
80% RE (NG) 80% RE (coal)
Baseline (NG) Baseline (coal)
Gross Land Use Comparisons (000 km2)
Biomass 44-‐88
All Other RE 52-‐81
All Other RE (disrupted) 4-‐10
Transmission & Storage 3-‐19
Total ConEguous U.S. 7,700
2009 Corn ProducEon* 350
Major Roads** 50
Golf Courses ** 10
80% RE scen
arios
* USDA 2010, **Denholm & Margolis 2008
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Incremental cost associated with high RE generaEon is comparable to published cost esEmates of other clean energy scenarios
• Comparable to incremental cost for clean energy and low carbon scenarios evaluated by EIA and EPA
• Reflects replacement of exisEng generaEon plants with new generators and addiEonal balancing requirements (combusEon turbines, storage, and transmission) compared to baseline scenario (conEnued evoluEon of today’s convenEonal generaEon system)
• AssumpEons reflect incremental or evoluEonary improvements to currently commercial RE technologies; they do not reflect U.S. DOE acEviEes to further lower these costs.
$0
$20
$40
$60
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rea
l 200
9$/M
Wh
Core 80% RE (ReEDS) EIA 2009cEPA 2009a EIA 2010bEPA 2010 EIA 2011a
EIA 2011b
Increase in retail electricity price relative to reference/baseline
Source: Renewable Electricity Futures (2012)
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• Cost is less sensiEve to the assumed electric system constraints (transmission, flexibility, RE resource access).
• Electricity prices in high RE scenarios are largely insensiEve to projecEons for fossil fuel prices and fossil technology improvements.
• Lower RE generaEon levels result in lower incremental prices (e.g., 30% RE-‐ETI scenario shows no incremental cost relaEve to the baseline scenario).
• Cost figures do not reflect savings or investments associated with energy efficiency assumpEons in the low-‐demand Baseline and 80% RE scenarios.
-$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20
Fossil-HTI
Higher Fossil Fuel
Lower Fossil Fuel
High Demand
Constr. Res.
Constr. Flex.
Constr. Trans.
80% RE-NTI
Difference in 2050 Electricity Price Relative to 80% RE-ITI
[Real 2009$/MWh]
80% RE-ETI
-$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20
Higher Fossil Fuel
High Demand
Difference in 2050 Electricity Price Relative to Baseline (low-demand, ITI)
[Real 2009$/MWh]
Lower Fossil Fuel
Fossil-HTI
Improvement in cost and performance of RE technologies is the most impacqul lever for reducing the incremental cost
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No insurmountable long-‐term constraints to RE technology manufacturing capacity, materials supply, or labor availability were idenEfied
• 80% RE generaEon in 2050 requires addiEons of ~20 GW/year in 2011-‐2020 , ~30/GW/year in 2021-‐2040, and ~40 GW/year in 2041-‐2050 (higher under High-‐Demand scenario).
• These installaEon rates are higher than U.S. capacity addiEons in 2010 (7 GW) and 2009 (11 GW) and would place challenges on RE industries.
• Recent U.S. and worldwide growth demonstrate the scalability of RE industries. • More informed siEng pracEces and regulaEons can reduce industry scale-‐up challenges.
80% RE-‐ITI scenario
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Renewable Resources and Technologies
• Only currently commercial technologies were modeled (no EGS, ocean, floaEng wind) with incremental and evoluEonary improvements.
• RE characterisEcs including locaEon, technical resource potenEal, and grid output characterisEcs were considered.
Biopower ~100 GW
Solar CSP ~37,000 GW
Geothermal ~36 GW
Hydropower ~200 GW
Solar PV ~80,000 GW (roorop PV ~700 GW)
Wind ~10,000 GW
•Stand-‐alone •Cofired with coal
•Trough •Tower
•Hydrothermal
•Run-‐of-‐river
•Residen*al •Commercial •U*lity-‐scale
•Onshore •Offshore fixed-‐boWom
With thermal storage
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A TransformaEon of the U.S. Electricity System
RE generaEon from technologies that are commercially available today, in combinaEon with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generaEon in 2050—while meeEng electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.
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All regions of the country could contribute substanEal renewable electricity supply in 2050 – especially when transmission is constrained
Constrained Transmission scenario
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Wind-onshore
Solar-PV
Wind-offshore
Hydropow
er
Solar-CSP
Biom
ass
Geotherm
al20
50 In
stal
led
Cap
acity
(GW
)80% RE-NTI80% RE-ITI80% RE-ETI
The abundance and diversity of RE resources can support mulEple combinaEons of RE technologies to provide 80% generaEon by 2050
• Future (relaEve) RE technology cost and performance drives deployment toward different mix of technologies depending on commercial and technological maturity
Ranges encompass results for (low-‐demand) Technology Improvement and Constrained scenarios
Greater techn
ology
improvem
ent
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Renewables can meet 80% of High Demand Scenario
• Higher demand growth generally implies an increased need for new generaEon and transmission capacity in both the baseline and 80% RE scenarios.
• More renewable generaEon capacity, parEcularly wind and PV, is needed; it will result in greater industry scale-‐up and resource access challenges.
• AddiEonal flexible supply-‐ and demand-‐side capacity (e.g., storage, natural gas combusEon turbine power plants, and interrupEble load) is also needed.
• While higher demand growth shows greater increases in electricity prices, the direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generaEon levels decreases (the prices in baseline also increase).
• Cost-‐effecEveness of energy efficiency vs. supply-‐side opEons was not evaluated.
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Future Work Needed
• A comprehensive cost-‐benefit analysis
• Comprehensive power system reliability analysis
• Market Design, InsEtuEonal, and other structural areas…
• Deeper analysis of advanced technologies, including supply and demand-‐side flexibility
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A future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible, and further work is warranted to invesEgate this clean generaEon pathway.
www.nrel.gov/RE_Futures
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InternaEonal Scenarios & Best PracEces
NZ, Ireland: 2007; Portugal 2020: UK 2030, rest 2050
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21st Century Power Partnership
• Accelerate the transiEon to clean, efficient, reliable and cost-‐effecEve power systems. o The 21CPP is a mul*lateral effort of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) and serves as a plaborm for interna*onal efforts to advance integrated policy, regulatory, financial, and technical solu*ons for the deployment of renewable energy in combina*on with large-‐scale energy efficiency and smart grid solu*ons.
o Core Elements 1. Global Exper*se 2. Public-‐private collabora*on 3. Peer-‐to-‐peer learning 4. Integrated systems approaches
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AcEons to Accommodate High RE
A. Lead public engagement, par*cularly for new transmission
B. Coordinate and integrate planning C. Develop rules for market evolu*on that
enable system flexibility D. Expand access to diverse resources and
geographic footprint of opera*ons E. Improve system opera*ons
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AcEons Reflect Market Status
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System-‐wide Approach More EffecEve
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Key Findings—AcEons for Ministers
1. Commission a comprehensive assessment of the technical, ins*tu*onal, human capital, and market status and factors influencing renewable energy integra*on
2. Develop visionary goals and plans at na*onal and regional levels, and empower appropriate leadership to bring the visions to frui*on
3. Lead the public engagement to communicate goals and needed ac*ons to aWain them
4. Engage in interna*onal coordina*on to share best prac*ces and strengthen technical, human and ins*tu*onal capabili*es to achieve higher levels of renewable energy penetra*on
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