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Relating changes in extremes to Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: impacts over the Mediterranean:
developments since the AGM and developments since the AGM and application to D6.8 application to D6.8
Tom HoltClimatic Research Unit,University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007
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SummarySummary• Not much time spent on WP6.2
– Two months on another project– Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs
• RT8– Public participation in science Web site
– Stakeholders
• RT4– Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes
• WP6.2– Web site– Review of models
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DeSurveyDeSurvey• Data may be of use in WP6.2
– ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean• Standard variables• 6-hourly• 1958-2002
– Downscaling to 1 km resolution• Weighted by topography• Most of Spain and mainland Greece done• Based on above ERA-40 data
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RT 8: Public web site (1)RT 8: Public web site (1)• Two sections
– ENSEMBLES– Climate change
• Need contributions– Particularly on climate change part– url:
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~tomh/ensemblespublic
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RT 8: Public web site (2)RT 8: Public web site (2)
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RT 8: Public web site (3)RT 8: Public web site (3)
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RT 6.2 Web siteRT 6.2 Web site
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Setting the scene: labourSetting the scene: labour
• Agricultural labour as % of total labour 1961-2004
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200520
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
70%
23%
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20055
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
40%
6%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
51%
15%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
5
10
15
20
25
30
30%
4%
Italy1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
22%
3%
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200540
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
78%
43%
Turkey
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Setting the scene: irrigationSetting the scene: irrigation• % of crop land under irrigation 1961-2003
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
3%
7%
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20058
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
9%
20%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200514
16
18
20
22
24
26
15%
26%
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052
4
6
8
10
12
14
2%
14%France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
12%
38%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20055
10
15
20
5%
18%
Turkey
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Setting the scene: meat productionSetting the scene: meat production
• Meat production (tonnes) 1961-2005
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1
2
3
4
5
6x 10
5
0.9 x 105
5.5 x 105
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1
2
3
4
5
6x 10
6
0.7 x 106
5.8 x 106
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7x 10
6
France
6.7 x 106
3.6 x 106
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5x 10
6
1.5 x 106
4.1 x 106
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5x 10
5
1.5 x 105
5.3 x 105
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8x 10
6
0.5 x 106
1.7 x 106
Turkey
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Setting the scene: exportsSetting the scene: exports
• Food exports as % of total exports 1962-2002
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20%
0.5%
oil!
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
56%
15%
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
15%
11%
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20056
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
15%
6%
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200520
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
67%
23%
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200510
20
30
40
50
60
70
68%
10%
Turkey
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10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
Chickens (1961-2005)Chickens (1961-2005)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14x 10
4
1 x 107
12 x 107
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20053
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13x 10
4
3 x 107
13 x 107
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7x 10
5
0.9 x 108
1.4 x 108Italy1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6x 10
5
1.6 x 108
2.4 x 108
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3x 10
5
0.3 x 108
3 x 108
Turkey
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2x 10
4
1.4 x 107
2.4 x 107
Greece
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Chickens: climate vulnerabilities
• Temperature– >25 deg C: loss of appetite, lower egg
production– >30 deg C: illness
• Water– Up to 0.3 litres/day– 3-4 times that on hot days
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HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>25 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
250
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HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>30 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
200
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10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
Sheep (1961-2005)Sheep (1961-2005)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2x 10
4
0.4 x 107
1.8 x 107
Algeria
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6x 10
4
2.2 x 107 2.4 x 107
Spain
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4x 10
4
0.9 x 107
1.3 x 107
France
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20057500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
8 x 106
11.5 x 106
Italy
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20057400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9.3 x 106
7.6 x 106
Greece
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5x 10
4
3.3 x 107
4.9 x 107
Turkey
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Sheep: climate vulnerabilities
• Temperature– >30 deg C: decline in milk yield and fat
content even with low humidity– >32 deg C: reproduction declines, rams can
become impotent for 2-3 months
• Water– 3.6 litres/day in winter, 14 litres/day in
summer– more on very hot days
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HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>32 deg C
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
1961-1980
2041-2060 2081-2100
2001-2020
8oW 0o 8oE 16oE 24oE 32oE 40oE 30oN
33oN
36oN
39oN
42oN
45oN
48oN
0
50
100
150
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Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990-Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990-2001)2001)
10 W 0
10
E 20
E 30
E 40
E
30 N
40 N
50 N
60 N
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
iop
n $
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
5
10
15
20
25
30
bill
ion
$
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Tourism
• Problems making links with climate data– Too many other variables?– Numbers of tourists might be more
appropriate statistic than income from tourists
• Lack of good data available free– Europe is trying but is not there yet
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Agricultural modelsAgricultural models
• The following climate vulnerability models have been developed and can be done for all Europe (where relevant!)– Wheat– Potatoes– Chickens– Sheep– Cattle– Citrus– Olives– Grapes
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D6.8 (1)D6.8 (1)
Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage – Requires models on:
• Human health• Flooding• Drought• Wind storm• Forest damage• Agriculture (not clearly specified in the DoW)
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D6.8 (2)D6.8 (2)
UEA has models on:• Human health
– heat stress– Atmospheric pollution
• Drought– What impacts?
• Agriculture• + a small contribution to wind storm and flooding• return period modeling and probabilities of extremes
– Other partners are also contributing to human health and agriculture.