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MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2013
REGIONAL DYNAMICS IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN AND PROSPECTS
FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATIONSilvia Colombo
Ibrahim Awad
Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim
Manfred Hafner
Leila Nachawati
Simone Tagliapietra
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2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
GMF Paper Series
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German
Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-
tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,
by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-
cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to
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About the Mediterranean Policy Program
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Arica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;
exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-
ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic
cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.
About Istituto Affari Internazionali
Te Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI), ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the elds o oreign policy,political economics, and international security. A non-prot organization, the IAI aims to disseminate knowledge through
research studies, conerences, and publications. o that end, it cooperates with other research institutes, universities, and
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processes in Italy, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, deense economy and policy, and transatlantic relations. Te IAI
puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator), an online webzine (AfarInternazionali), a series o
research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellItalia).
Cover photo: A reugee camp in Rayak, Lebanon hosting Syrian bedouins. Te hills in the background mark the border to
Syria. March 1, 2013. Alex Kuehni
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. iii
ForewordSilvia Colombo
Zooming in on the Arab Uprisings: Domestic
and International Factors
Explanatins f th Aab upisings hav
tn t put a pmium n ith mstic
intnatinal facts. Rginal ynamics
a in m cmplx t gasp than mstic
an intnatinal tns, paticulaly in a gin
th Suthn an Eastn Mitanan
that has alays suff fm n f th lst
lvls f cpatin an intgatin in th l.
Nvthlss, ginal ynamics in th plitical,
scial, cnmic, an human mains can hlp
shapn u unstaning f th cunt situatinan futu utlk f th gin in th ak f
tansfmativ changs. This pt tis t fill this
gap by cntxtualizing ginal ynamics in th
ba famk f tansatlantic latins ith
th Mitanan.1
Th s-call Aab Sping has l t shifting
mstic plitical alignmnts, fms, an
in sm cass gim changs. A hst f
accunts hav fcus n th mstic facts that
tigg th unpcnt av f unst that
pcipitat th fall f hat nc ga asbust an cnsliat gims. Amng thm,
stuctual an cntingnt facts, anging fm th
unsustainability f th scial cntact btn th
uls an th ul, t th tiating sci-
cnmic cnitins suff by lag stata f th
ppulatin, in paticula yung ppl an th
shinking mil class, t th acut blitatin f
civic an plitical ights, hav ftn bn amng
th xplanatins ff f th vnts that alt
th imag f Nth Afica an th Mil East in
aly 2011. Smtims aing t ths assssmnts,
but m ftn pviing altnativ vis,intnatinal facts hav als bn pminntly
1 On th thm f ginal ynamics an lat issus, sS.C. Callya, Securty Chenges n the Eur-Med Are n the21stCentury: Mre Nstru, Rutlg, 2012, an, by th samauth, Ngtng Regn Dyncs n the Pst-Cd WrWrd: Ptterns f Retns n the Medterrnen Are, Dat-muth Publishing C Lt, 1997.
qut as bing amng th main ynamicsunpinning an xplaining th Aab upisings
an th nsuing tansitin pcsss. Th uzn
cisis an th failu f th Eupan Unin (EU)-
spns mcacy pmtin initiativs in
th gin, as ll as th Unit Stats ging
isngagmnt fm it an its statgic pivt
ta Asia hav ftn bn pint at as lng-
tm facts that hav shap, an ill cntinu t
shap, th futu f th Nth Afican an Mil
Eastn gin.
Taking ths xplanatins int accunt, t maj
tns can b intifi that chaactiz th
Suthn an Eastn Mitanan cuntis
(SEMCs) in th ak f th Aab upisings. Th
fist is thi incas fagmntatin an th
appaanc f smingly cntifugal tajctis
acss th gin ith cuntis at iffnt
stags f th tansitin pcss. Whil it is nt yt
pssibl t hav a cla pictu f th utcm
f th Tunisian an Egyptian tansitins u t
th unctaintis assciat ith such pcsss,
it is cla that in th sht-t-mium tm, th
iffncs btn th plitical vlpmntf th t cuntis ill tn t pvail v th
similaitis. This can b xplain by th iffnt
timing an squncing f th vaius stps f th
tansitin, .g., th cnstitutin-afting pcss,
th lctin cycls, an fms, an by th
iffnt gs f cnflict xisting amng th
lits in th t cass. Th scn hallmak f th
gin tay has t ith th pivtal psitin
ccupi by n plitical acts, namly th
vaius Islamist patis that hav mg by an
lag as th mst victius plitical fcs in th
gin aft th fist f an fai lctins v t
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv
.
T T E .
A x , E NP (ENP), -, - . A , U S E I k . T k / , U S - .
B E U.S. A x
. T E U.S. k , R, Tk, C, AG S, M . I x W M
T M P S F . S S. C, P. C, J. K,N S-P A N A. A TP,M Ps Ss, F , ://..//---------.
U S E x A . T k S, k R, , S A Q, , . S, x E Q TSq M : q-I -, --q - ( , I Q
).
New Regional Dynamics
U , , x A . R S E M, qz ,
, -x, . I, A k . S- S EM ,
S N. T, E. M, S. z, S. G, I M P M: T R Tk G C C,M Ps SsJ , ://..//----------k-----; S. C ., T GCC M L A S,MPs Ss, D , ://..//----------;D. H ., T M R MW. E R R, C, I, Bz,
M Ps Ss, F , ://..//--------------z.
http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. v
.B k, , , . N I- -A S x, S E M .
I S E M. G - , ..,A, A, E, . I , k . T k .
T ( k ) M E S Mx. T k M ; ; ; , , . T x ( k ) ,, . T , k q j :
W // /, , M ?;
H , , -A S x?;
W -,, M ?;
H x , , E U S, ?;
H M ?
N (, , ), , , k j.A , x, . Ex x
j j . F, j , - . A , ,, , ---
x A . Ex k , , k .
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesvi
Trade and Investments:Plus a Change
?
A , A G SEMC A , E , j . N z .A ,
qz . W x - , k -- q .
T
. O , SEMC x q k . O , . I , U S EU
j.
Population Movements and Refugee Flows:
The Existence of an Arab Region
T A I
A, T,E, L, S. T A x A , x Tk . O , , A , . Tx q
. T q , k .
A , x A , A E .S E
T L. T : E , E .
The Mediterranean Energy Landscape: The
Challenge of Diversification and Integration
T A SEMC
U S E.T SEMC z , . T, x .
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. vii
I , - . F, , z, , , x , , .
A , SEMC , .W x ( Tk, E, M), , , . T SEMC j. F , .
T
M G C C(GCC) SEMC. I , . T GCC, SEMC, ( x) x E, , A . T M H S T
S E M .
New Media, Cultural Awareness, and
Integration from Below
T , L N, : . T ,
v- A S, , k 96. T k -A , , z z. Hz , z , ,
-- , , SEMC.
H, , , , q .E
, j, M .
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 1
Introduction
T A x , T E, Y, S, L,
. I , x x (, , ). Y, q . W A S S EM (SEMC)? T x k SEMC: E, J,S, L, M, T, A, L. T x - (A L) (E, L,M, J, S, T). T SEMC
. S , J M, .T z L, - S . S SEMC x A S . I , j SEMC x ,
A , S M
E U (EU), .4
T x , ,
. P z , , ( ).5 T 99. A . T k , x A , , .
F , k x A , ,, x. C, x , ( I), , , x ( EU, U.S. ), ( ). P W k. M, .
4
A 6-8 . S I. S, A W L C: RR C F,A-Hy, S 5, , ://.-.////9/----..
5 G x, x .
1Trade and Investment Dynamics in the MediterraneanRegion: No Real Change after the Arab Spring
Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.html -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
Trade and Investment Patterns
Before the Arab Spring
D ( , -S A, ; j SEMC; z) ( z W Bk (WB), I M F(IMF), W T Oz (WTO),
SEMC -99, ,6 .O SEMC, WTO(E, J, M, T).7 L , A, S, L . M, SEMC j (PTA). Y, SEMC . I ,
. F x, E,M, T x - , , , L A .8 M, SEMC , , EU,
6 J.-P. C, F P E Ak A W: T P E I,
MENA Dv Rs, J , ://../986/.
7 E GATT 97, M 987,T 99, J j WTO - .
8 M. M, T A E F C:A P T R,
M Y 2012, . 9-44, ://../-/-/x-j//./_.-.
7-8 k T, M, A. TEU SEMC, A G EU j SEMCM , ( ).T k.
T : E (C q x 9 C I x), x - SEMC.
O .H, L A , SEMC x (T ). I , M, T, E , ,
9 I ,C k x SEMC. S WTO, T Ps2012, , ://..//_/_/__.. F x, E 4.6 8.4 8,
J 4. .4 8.T T M, . . .7 5.7 8. S J.-P.C, F P E Ak AW,
W Bk, S MENAs T IvssLs C I, W, T W Bk, 8,://.k./6ZK8UTFV .
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://go.worldbank.org/6ZK8UTFV10http://go.worldbank.org/6ZK8UTFV10http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221 -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 3
. T x SEMC EU, - ( , , x - ), k . M, - , k , . I , D B () W Bk IF C (IFC), SEMC
, 85, x M, k 97. T , . T SEMC k , k , .4
SEMC PTA . TPTA P A
F T A (PAFTA), 8A SEMC, A ( E,M, T, J),
T EU SEMC, x J. S WTO, T Ps 2012,
C z ( ) . T
. T .
A.F. G, A NTB E-M Z, L. DW M. Mzk (.), E I E-M R, CASE N Rs, N. 89,D 9, ://.-.///5579.
4 A.F. G ., S D I M C EU M R, CASE N Rs, N. 96, J, ://.-.///559.
PTA SEMC. PAFTA k, x PAFTA (8 x ). T A SEMC xz PTA EU, k .S PTA SEMC PAFTA A, . I ,
x. T SEMC PTA EU ( , ), U S (J M), C Mk E SA COMESA (E L), Tk,EFTA, S, C.
Factors Behind Such Patterns
T SEMC , 96. I SEMC, , . O SEMC . S
, . I 98,
http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55790http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55930http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55930http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55790 -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
Table 1 Export Structure of SEMCs (1990-2011)
Country Exports (% of merchandise
exports)
Average
(1990-
1999)
Average
(2000-
2009)
2010 2011
A A .4 . . .
F .6 . .6 .5
F 95.7 97.4 97. 97.
O .5 .5 . .
M . . .8 .
E A 5.4 4. . .9
F 9.6 9.6 7. 4.9
F 4. 4.6 9.8 .7
O 5.8 4. 6. 6.
M 7.4 . 4.4 44.4
J A .8 . . .
F 8.9 5. 6.6 7.
F . .4 . .
O 9.7 .8 8.5 .
M 5.6 7.5 7.6 7.4
L A .6 .9 .7 .8
F .9 7. 4.9 8.4
F . . . .
O 8.6 . .7 .7
M 68.8 69.9 6.6 66.9
L A .
F .5
F 94.
O .
M 5.
M A .6 .6 .7
F 7.4 . 9.
F .4 . .
O . 9.5 .7
M 55.4 66. 66.
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 5
SEMC. W k ( , , ). T , ( IMF WB), SEMC.
A , SEMC, x L A ( ), , . N, x A k. T :
T x ,
SEMC.
T SEMC, , x .
Wk , -k SEMC, .5
T SEMC
, , / .
T SEMC , .
T j SEMC, ,
, .
5 A C P Ix 2012, SEMC , Jk SEMC L ; . J k 58 L 6 76 . S T- I, C P Ix 2012, ://..// .
S A 6.5 .7 .7
F 5. 6. .
F 6. 58. 49.9
O . .5 .7
M 4. 9. 4.7
T A .7 .6 .5
F .9 9. 7.7
F .9 .5 4.
O .4 .4 .6M 76. 76. 76.
Source: World Bank, WDI Database.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
W , x . I , .
T k SEMC, PTA, x , ( x ), (k ), (k k - ).6
The Arab Spring: Is it Likely to
Change Such Patterns?
T A S j SEMC , x , , A S .
O , SEMC x I. I , . I , I SEMC. A . T SEMC (T, E, L) . T k, , , . S , I k k
6 H. K-E-D A.F. G, A T I R: C E U Ex- L L, I E E U: L A R, FEMISERs, N. FEM-7, N 5, ://../PDF//FEM7..
k . L . J M k , , , I
.A SEMC, . B q I
SEMC.
T SEMC A S, , . T A S , . T , x , k. T ,
, . E k , .7 I x . I , - . A ,
Ez SEMC ,
7 T , .G k -. P -, - , ,, , .
http://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdf -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 7
E, qz
, , .
T U S, k - SEMC. I , SEMC j , j k ( J M k IMF , ),
. J M .8 TM
8 W Bk, I G J,MENAE Dvs Pss Rs, S ,://../986/44 .
5- J .9 S,
, j , .L , x S. A , , A S
x, . T E T
, ,
9 L. A, A R F P M T R, J Tk?,A M, J , , ://.-.////6/------..
Figure 1 Deterioration of International Reserves between 2010 and 2012 in Selected SEMCs
Source: IMF, Arab Countries in Transition Economic Developments and Fund Engagement, Presentation at the Luxembourg
Group Meeting, January 24, 2013.
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12434http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://hdl.handle.net/10986/12434 -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
, . T E , .7 GDP -; 9- - -, US$5 J $5 D . T j SEMC (F ). T
E T . I , FDI E, j A, . I T, FDI 6 , , .
T SEMC
k, k , , k.4 A
E M F, Sy Gv FsOs, ://.../E/P/F%D.x.
C Bk E, Eys B Pys, ://.../E/E+R/T+S.
C Bk E, I Rsvs, ://.../SDDS/IR..
IMF, T F E, S C H T, IMF Svy Mz, S5, , ://../x//////95..
4 F A S, S. M, T ED: T P F, K.M. Pk ., T
A A A Ts MEs, W, Bk I P, , . 66-75.
. I SEMC . T k x . Y, , , (k x )
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 9
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 11
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 13
Introduction
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
Tunisia and Egypt as Potential
Sources of Migration
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 19
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
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8 O S L, , x, H. S, B R I R,A Hy, J , , ://.D/474.
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 21
I , S . T Tk .H S, Tk j k S . W S , k , , NATO P Tk .
I L ,S , ,, , , , .8S . E . A S L
E . S S, , . T , .
T q S .T . L . I . J
8 T q S . I - L, E, , . A J . I , Tk 4 S , ,.
P . I Iq . T S x , , A S. E .I . I . S / S S H A .
I L, z, LR C S NGO G .Hz, S -, S .84 T z L R C Hz .
I z, UNHCR, UNICEF, W H Oz (WHO), WF P (WFP), IOM, , L, .I NGO, NR C, S C, DR C, Q UAE RC, C k z . D
84 O Hz : k k F S A; , Hz k . S M. Z, Hz S , . T - , .
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
S , L J, E C, ECHO, EU A, Cz R,Dk, F, F, G, I,I, N, S, S, U K. D A,Bz, K, C, Sz, US. D , NGO, INGO . EU U.S.
4 , .85
A A , K, Q, S A, UAE .
N, . T , FM L A S (LAS) J , K . T LAS L,J, Iq .
A, A F M S, UNHCR, . A K , x UNHCR $.5 z. I EU U.S. ,K, S A, UAE .86 T A S q .
85 D S x UN , Es, J, , ://..////----x--.
86 A L H M S,J TsWy, J 4, , ://.kk.//4648/-----..
T S z . B S, L, . I T , L. T , , , . T
. I S . T .F, x - . S, x , J.I , x .T
.U, k .
Conclusions
M A , x , T, E, L, S. S T . E
x . T x k . D . T x L k , k
http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 23
qk x. T . N, L-E .M k x k L , k . B q L . W ,
k k .
S A S. T . T q , L. I , k q , , .
N , E,
A S, x . A , EU A S z .T , , , x z S.
T
k ,, , E, q - A . U,, ,
, , x G . P A S . Iz N A EU, x, k .I E j
- , . M k q k .H, 7, k E. D x EU U
S . T x I F I (IFI) , , A S . A x . M E , M, x . A ,
A S . T EU U S .
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
T EU U S k k . S A z, z,
k q . B A E .
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 25
Introduction
T A S M .T
, . T q - , , A S, S E
M (SEMC) - .
T M x , N S M: - - - N - - - S. A ,
k M .T M.87
W M, E N A. I N 995, B D, EU- M . T E-M -E k
87 F M , M. H, S. T, E.H. E E-, Ok O G S E M- C,MP T Rs, N. 8, O, ://..//7447.
E-M k. H, E-M .I E M, . I , U.S. EU , .
T A S q M, . A A S .
E - , j EU U S M . I, k :) )
. S , k, , x , . I .
T j M . W
, Tk, P G M, LB. C
3A New Transatlantic Approach to Mediterranean EnergyCooperation: Joint Efforts and New Synergies after theArab Spring
Manfred Hafner and Simone Tagliapietra
http://www.ceps.eu/node/7447.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7447. -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
, , SEMC, , G CC (GCC). I , U.S./EU M-EP I k M .
Mediterranean Energy Cooperation
before the Arab SpringA k M . T x x SEMC 6 ()/, 6 / 44 / q (LNG) M . T j 6-/ x N A (
/): A, 77 / (x LNG ); E, 8 / ( x LNG); L, / ( x LNG ).
I M , :
E M P (A-I, T), 98, /;
P D F P (A-S,
M), 997, /;
Mz (AS, ), , 8 /;
G P (L-I, ), 4, /;
A G P (E-J-L-S), , /;
R-Tk ( Tk), 987, 4 /;
B S (R-Tk, ),4, 6 /;
S C G P (Azj-Tk), 7, 7 /;
E-I P (A-Ak,
), 8, 9 /.T LNG SEMC, 44 / ( ).F LNG A, E, L.
S , M . T NM ( T P
T G A, SE P M G), ( E: SzM SUMED P), (Tk: IqTk P BkTC P), E M ( T-A CO P (TAP) A G S A, J, S, L, IqS ), .
T A S M, k x
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 27
.88 T x E. I , J5 , E x I. T z . W , I-E 979 .89
88 H. D B. F, T I AU O G Mk, Ox Is Ey
Ss W Ps, N. MEP , S , ://.x.//9/----------k.
89 F E A S, S. T, T NE M E C? N G D- B Mk O G Rk,FEEM N Lv, N. ., F , ://../.x?=5.
Transatlantic Cooperation in the
Mediterranean After the Arab Spring
Enhancing Hydrocarbon Cooperation
The Potential Role of Turkey as Energy Hub
T M E, A, ME. T k k. I , Tk SEMC , 68 75
.
9
A Tk,
9 B P (BP), Ss Rv W Ey2013, J , ://../////--/_____..
Figure 2 The natural gas infrastructure in the Mediterranean region
Source: Observatoire Mditerranen de lEnergie.
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets. -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
. T k Iq C B (Azj
Kzk) C: KkkC BkTC (BTC) . I , SC j k k Tk S, , ,
q I. T KkkC
z F IqG B KR G E. T
Figure 3 Oil pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf
Source: U.S. Department of Energy.
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 29
x Iq Tk S.9
Tk , E M .9 T , E .9
I 8, E C S G C,
C M E - E, R F.94 T , j .H, j , Tk. T, R Uk (N S S E B Tk), N S Bk
9 F , , , Tk S, G. L, Sy O Ss: Isss Rs,D, C&C, (E E S N.4).
9 S. T, T R Tk N M-: C O E C R T, FEEM N Lv, N. 66.,
S , ://../.x?=548.9 E C, Ey R 2050 (COM()885 ), D 5, , ://-x../LxUS/LxUS.?=x:5885::.
94 E C, S S Ey Rv AEU Ey Sy Sy A P (COM(8) 78), N , 8, ://-x../LxUS/LxUS.?=x:5878::.
S. T Tk E k, E.95
T Tk E M .T Tk, q C, .M, Tk I Iq. A -x, E U.S. Tk , . C Tk
S G C, Tk - Azj, Tk, I, Iq EU .
F , Tk , . T k Tk EU. F x EU Tk, , . I
95 J.-M. G .,A N A EU Gs Sy Sy, D, C & C, (E ES N. ).
http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5048.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5048. -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States30
A S G C
. C - LNG Tk .
The Potential Role of Syria and Other Southeast
Mediterranean Countries for Oil Transit
S ,
.T S.T M E E M: T-A C O P (TAP)
Iq-S .96 H, . A
, . Y, . T, k , G x M.
Ts-A C O P C , 95
S A G L Z, S. F , k
96 M. H, S. T, E.H. E E, Ok O G S E M C-,
Figure 4 Oil pipelines across Turkey (existing and planned)
Source: Botas.
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 31
E U S .(T P J, G H S S L.) A k , S A .A k SA, S, L k, k, J 976. T S A J 99, S A J Iq G W.
IqSy KBys P T 8k Kkk
Iq B S , . T , 95, U.S. k . I 7, S Iq , , Sz R 9.A x , , , S , Iq S KkkB . O, .5 (/), , , .5 /, . B x S.
Figure 5 Gas pipelines across Turkey (existing and planned)
Source: Botas.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
I , Iq FG B K R G E x Kkk Tk,Iq x S B x , Iq C O Ex Ex Pj F T P G.M, Iq J R S Aq.C, q Iq J
k. A Iq Y S A P A G R S, S A 99 Iq .
A I E A,Iq x x x , k Iq x . T x k. T
x z M, A B .
T Sz C E , : Sz C SUMED (, , / M). T Sz C( Sz C A) ME E. T Sz C 9-k - E, P S M S P Tq R S. LNG SzC : LNG A
E, A k, , Q O, E N A k. T LNG - LNG Q 9-. T LNG k A, Sz C . C U.K., B, I LNG Sz C.
T SUMED E Sz C A-Sk G Sz SK M , W Ax. T k A -Sk, SzC , S K. A,k A-Sk S K E .T SUMED x
E M E. T k E A S.
Natural Gas Developments in
the Eastern Mediterranean
S EM L B - .97 T 9, N E T (5 ) I. A j , N
97 F , S. T,T N E M E C? ,
-
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 33
E j L B: L (476 ) I () A (4- ) C (). O k L, Gz, G.
I N , I, C, G k E M E C x I C G. T , : ) j I-C LNG Vk,C; ) LNG I; ) EM C I E. A EA EI I C G.
T x I, C, G M . I z Tk.
M , LNGq C , I-Tk , T A Ak.98
T EU EM , E x . T E C E R 599
98 D. H N. T, B S Tk-I Bk, IAI W Ps, N. 5, A ,://../.?=&=9.
99 E C, Ey R 2050 (COM()885 ),
, -E , . I , 8 EU : R F, N, A. T E C k .B , . T ,
E M E C EU k.
T U S xz z k EM. K U.S. :
I ;
;
E .
T I Tk W . I x U S k .
F, U S : L B U.S. , N E.
http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid=2&contentid=911.http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid=2&contentid=911. -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States34
Supporting a Sustainable Energy Transition
in the Region
T SEMC z , , x . A qz . F x, , E GDP. A , , z,
, , , x . I , k - .
T SEMC ,k , k .T SEMC : k-, . T M k : .
Enforcing Energy Efficiency Measures
in the Mediterranean Region
O, SEMC . W ,
E. B ., T R E S-E D S EM,MP T Rs, N. 7, F, ://..//776.
SEMC k .
E z , , . T k , k .
T SEMC. T , . F -j -z k SEMC . Ax E Bk R D (EBRD) B Tk
( Tk S E F F M-Sz S E FF) SEMC.
Unlocking the Huge Renewable Energy Potential
of the Mediterranean Region
W x ( Tk, E, M), , , , . A SEMC ,
F. B, E E: T P S M,MP T Rs, N. ,D , ://..//757.
EBRD, Ss Ey F Fs, ://../////..
http://www.ceps.eu/node/7706.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7537.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7537.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7706. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 35
.
R x k. R j x, , .T , , x E. C z NA E ,
, SEMC x k.4
C SEMC j , .5 (GW) , 54GW (9 GW 5 GW x ). B , SEMC x x 6
GW 58 GW . T 94 GW. I , Tk,A, E, M .R x x GW Tk, GW A, 8 GW E, 4 GW M . A .5
P W M S P, PSys 2020 Is, ://.-./
x.?=_&k=&=&I=56.
4 F , M. H,S. T, E.H. E E, Ok E R E S E MC,MP T Rs, N. 6, O ,://..//756.
5 I
R j (.., ) j .6 B x , S-S . T - .7 F , k - k , , z
, , z z , . B SEMC j. F , .
Toward a Future Development Triangle:EU/U.S. - SEMCs - GCC
T M G C C (GCC) SEMC. I , x . T GCC, SEMC, x x
E,
6 I R E A, R EJ: S, P & P, IRENA W P, ,://..//x.x?=S&PMID=6&CID=4&SID=4.
7 W Bk, W Dv Is s, ://.k./.
http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7356.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7356.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56. -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States36
.
I , (SWF) q k. B , SWF . I , GCC , - , .8P SEMC, - j.T S EM 5 GW GW . T -
: M S P D. T M S P 8 k U M j GW . D 5 GW (CSP) 5.9
8
F , S. T,T Gs Sv W Fs REy Ts N Ey P E-M- R, D, C & C, (EE S N. ).
9 E C,M S P xs - sy , F , , ://../////-/_..
H, x, , - j. T x x S E M . T k k SWF -
x . M, SWF - j SEMC EBRD.
T - j SEMC M . SWF GCC q - j,
k, , x q.
I GCC, S EM , , , M . M, - , .
Moving Forward: A New U.S./EU-Med
Energy Partnership Initiative
E
http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 37
M j:
;
E ;
;
SEMC k A S. T
SEMC, , , , j . O, EU
U S. I , U S
Table 2 - SEMCs national targets on renewable energy
Country National targets
A 5 (RES) . T 4 .
E RES .
I I 9, RES . I , 5 4 . T .
J 7 RES 5 . I , M E M R (MEMR) x 6 MW , 6 MW , - 5 MW .
L RES . T N EE A P L C EC (LCEC) L G 5.
M A N E S P, 4 RES . T RES : (EE) , , ; .7
q (SWH) .S T . I , 5 .
T 6 RES 6 4 . D . S RES .
Source: Authors own elaboration.
-
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States38
.
T A k
E-M , , .
I A S, U.S. PBk O T I P I M E N A k EU , x U.S. E k,
z . T, z j
W H, Fs: E S M Es N A, M 8, , ://../--//5/8/-------.
U.S.-EU M , . A U.S./EU-M E P I SEMC , , .
T E Bk R D (EBRD) T EBRD k k . I 99 j C E E, k . H, A
S, U S EU k, EBRD k x Bk , SEMC . I, Bk E, J, M, T. S ,
Figure 6 A vision for a future MED11-GCC-EU development triangle
Source: Authors own elaboration.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 39
59 EBRD SEMC, EU k NI F. T SEMC , EBRD . T , x EBRD
EBRD, T EBRDs Avs S EsM R, D , ://..////..
A S, EBRD x SEMC . T , EBRD, .
T , U.S./EU-M E P I , E-M . I , - k.
http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 41
Introduction
I T S E M (SEMC), z k
x z. U , , E S, . N
k SEMC . T z, , , , z , z .
T , k 96. T
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4New Regional Dynamics and Means ofCommunication in the Mediterranean RegionLeila Nachawati
http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802. -
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http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications. -
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Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 43
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States44
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States46
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