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Regional Bus Base CapacityMaintaining service as congestion
increases
4/4/19
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NO ACTION REQUIRED TODAY
PRESENTATION FOR: Information | Feedback | Discussion
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Presentation agenda
• Describe operational challenges faced by all regional transit
providers.
• Describe near-term capacity constraints and need for interim
bus capacity before Link openings in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
• Inform future Board decisions about ST Express service levels
and business model.
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Board Decisions About ST Express Service
• As Link expands, what are the appropriate service levels for
ST Express?
• What is the best method for providing long-term capacity
(2024 and beyond)?
• Build ST2 bus base? Continue existing partnerships?
• What is the right approach for short-term service levels?
• Reduce service on lower performing routes? Find interim
base capacity?
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ST Express Fleet Distribution
Pierce Transit Base
Snohomish County
As of March 2019Fleet at PT will temporarily grow in Sept 2019
129 153ST Express Pierce Transit
King County Metro Bases
119 1,491ST Express Metro
7% 93%
Community Transit Bases
64 286ST Express Community Transit
18% 82%
40% 60%
Total fleet 312 buses 100% contracted operations
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ST Express Operators & Cost
Subcontracted to
First Transit
$130 per hour $169 per hour $153 per hour
153,000service hours
311,000 service hours
351,000 service hours
2019 Budget
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The Challenge: Regional Congestion
• ST Express speeds declined by 12 percent in the past 5-years
• Congestion caused longer & more variable travel times on
nearly all routes
• Impact on Sound Transit passengers anticipated to continue
until Link extensions open
Service quality declines as congestion worsens
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10 minutes between buses
Without congestion riders experience consistent service with room to board.
20 minutes between buses
In heavy congestion, rider wait longer than planned and board more crowded buses.
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Once on-board, riders experience longer travel times and greater uncertainty when they will arrive at their destination.
Riders spend more time on the
bus and cannot rely on the
published arrival time
How late
will I be?
Scheduled TimeTime with congestion
Lower confidence in
bus service may drive
riders to an alternative
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Congestion Impacts Felt by Riders
• Longer waits for bus to arrive
• Less room to board, potential to be left at stop
• More uncertainty about journey, schedule, and arrival time
• Decreases confidence in reliability of service
Longer waits, more crowding, more uncertainty
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Scale of the Rider Impact
• Most severe impacts to the 55% of daily riders who use the
system during peak commute times
• Up to 10% fewer trips with the same number of buses
• Increase crowding by 12% per trip on average
Congestion reduces service levels across the region
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Response to Congestion Impacts
• Focus on maintaining reliability
• Reduce and adjust service to deliver less service more
reliably
• Maximize effectiveness of constrained bus fleet
• Make proactive changes to impact fewest riders possible
• Reallocate resources from lower-performing to higher-
performing routes
• Add resources when possible
Service planning to minimize impact on riders
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2031
2042
BASE CAPACITY
Fleet grows to meet
demand. Exceeds
bus base constraint
2018
280
305
307
ST Express Fleet Above Base Capacity
312
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2031
2042
BASE CAPACITY
280
305
307
ST Express Fleet Above Base Capacity
312 Temporary squeeze
of base capacity to
address additional
congestion impacts
2019
326
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Continued Squeezing Capacity Strains Fleet
Over-utilization of capacity reduces service quality
Longer maintenance and repair windows
Increases likelihood of daily trip cuts
Not sustainable in the long-term
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2031
2042
BASE CAPACITY280
305
307
Interim Need for Regional Base Capacity
312
326Up to 56 buses above
base capacity needed
to mitigate congestion
impacts
2018-2022
343
353
363
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2031
2042
BASE CAPACITY280
305
307
Defining Long Term Fleet Size
312
326
343
353
363
194
157
119
363
349Major Future Changes as Link &
BRT Projects Open 2023-2041
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Project Openings Will Change ST Express
East Link
South Kirkland-Issaquah
Everett
Northgate
Lynnwood
Federal Way
Redmond
BRT 522/405
Tacoma Link Hilltop
Ballard
Tacoma Dome
West Seattle
2021 2025 20412030 2035
Tacoma Community College
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Long Term: Link & BRT completely or partially replace ST Express
• ST Express integrates with high-capacity service
• ST3 plan funds existing service levels on remaining routes
• Saved ST Express service hours re-allocated to Link operations
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805,000736,000
600,000
462,000
346,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2023 2024 2025 2031 2042
Finance Plan Shifts Hours into Link Operation
194 157 119363 349
Annual
HoursBuses
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
Hours
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Key Questions for ST Express Post-2023
Service Levels
• Will funded service levels adequately meet demand?
• Will the need emerge for new ST Express routes?
• What are the budgetary impacts if ST Service is not reduced?
Base Capacity
• Is the current acute bus base shortage temporary?
• Will the growth of partner agency fleets outpace ST Express fleet
reductions?
• Will partners fund additional regional bus base capacity?
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Why we issued an RFPPreserving service
• First priority to maintain service for customers and preserve
ridership while Board decides long-term questions.
• Without congestion improvement, no additional bus capacity will
mean fewer trips.
• New bus bases will take years for site selection + EIS, etc.
• Bridge interim needs until regional base capacity is provided.
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RFP details
• Five year contract with five one-year options. Capacity for 55 buses.
• Unprecedented language in six separate parts of the RFP to eliminate
possibility of non-union labor.
• Public agencies encouraged to apply.
• Would provide flexibility to adapt to ridership changes with light rail
openings.
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RFP statusPausing for additional outreach and Board feedback
• RFP released on February 1, 2019.
• Included labor harmony requirement.
• Labor partners raised concerns.
• Agency partners raised concerns.
• CEO places procurement on hold on March 19, 2019.
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Next Steps for RFPImmediate options about RFP
Cancel RFP
• Develop a plan to reduce bus
service during congested peak
periods
• Work with partners on previously
unidentified interim base capacity
options
• Board debates merits of ST2 bus
base this summer
Continue with RFP
• Issue new instructions and
deadlines
• Public agencies can participate
• Evaluate responsive bids
• Board debates merits of ST2 bus
base this summer
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Long-term capacity options
Continued reliance on partner agencies
• Lower flexibility to determine ST Express service levels
• Lower ability to control ST costs
• Eliminates need for site acquisition and major capital project
Build ST-owned base(s)
• Could provide needed capacity for ST Express service and greater
regional capacity
• The ST2 program funded a bus base for ST Express
• Significant capital investment could result in excess capacity when ST
Express service levels are reduced
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Next Steps
• ST requested one-year extensions for each partner’s
intergovernmental agreement.
• Allows time for Board to set future ST Express service levels.
• Determine appropriate service levels and whether to build ST2
bus base.
• ST can then clearly articulate future ST Express needs to
partner agencies.
• Determine interim service levels for ST Express until Link
expansions.
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Thank you.
soundtransit.org