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Public Opinion/The Public Opinion/The MediaMedia
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For Next TimeFor Next Time
Liberal SourceLiberal Source
O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12
Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46
264 #1264 #1
293 1-3293 1-3
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The Ugly- Literary Digest PollThe Ugly- Literary Digest Poll
1936 Election1936 Election
Over 1 Million RespondentsOver 1 Million Respondents
Predicts Alf Landon WinPredicts Alf Landon Win
Problem- Selecting ParticipantsProblem- Selecting Participants
Problem- Low response rateProblem- Low response rate
Problem- Too far in advance of electionProblem- Too far in advance of election
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Polling and DemocracyPolling and Democracy
Verba- Allows voices to be heard that Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwisewould not otherwise
Allows greater detail on wishes of public Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. than elections would.
Dryzek- Empowers status quoDryzek- Empowers status quo
Does not allow spontaneous expression of Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinionopinion
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The Uses Of PollsThe Uses Of Polls
The mediaThe media
Election ForecastingElection Forecasting
By the publicBy the public
By politiciansBy politicians To inform policyTo inform policy To sell policyTo sell policy
By Interest groupsBy Interest groups
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Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation
Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policyLarge shifts in opinion -> changes in policy
District level Congruence in some policy District level Congruence in some policy domainsdomains Strongest in states with referendumStrongest in states with referendum
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Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation
Can reign in lobbyistsCan reign in lobbyists
When is public opinion influential?When is public opinion influential?
When it sends a clear messageWhen it sends a clear message
When it moves dramaticallyWhen it moves dramatically
When Issue is SalientWhen Issue is Salient
LimitsLimits Not all issues salientNot all issues salient Public opinion shiftsPublic opinion shifts
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Public Opinion and ElectionsPublic Opinion and Elections
Surveys allow for forecastingSurveys allow for forecasting
Can enable strategic votingCan enable strategic voting
Large impact on fundraisingLarge impact on fundraising
Horse race coverageHorse race coverage
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Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval
““Do you generally approve of the way Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as ________ is handling his job as president?”president?”
Important resourceImportant resource
Increased Bargaining PowerIncreased Bargaining Power
More successful with congressMore successful with congress
Success brings successSuccess brings success
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Sources of Approval (or lack Sources of Approval (or lack thereof)thereof)
The economyThe economy Both current performance and expectationsBoth current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personalEconomy as a whole more important than personal
Presidential “drama”Presidential “drama”
War/foreign policyWar/foreign policy
Media CoverageMedia Coverage
PrimingPriming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approvalCan help or hurt overall approval
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Political TrustPolitical Trust
Most of the time, can you trust government Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing?to do the right thing?Trend- Generally decreasingTrend- Generally decreasingSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSources?Sources?Policy DissatisfactionPolicy DissatisfactionIncreasing gap between promises/resultsIncreasing gap between promises/resultsPolitical Scandal/MediaPolitical Scandal/Media
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Political TrustPolitical Trust
ConsequencesConsequences
Decreased Turnout?Decreased Turnout?
Electoral ChoiceElectoral Choice Benefits 3Benefits 3rdrd party candidates and challengers party candidates and challengers
Difficulty building policy supportDifficulty building policy support
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ToleranceTolerance
A willingness to tolerate the presence of A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree withideas that you do not agree withStouffer 1955Stouffer 195580-90% of respondents support abstract 80-90% of respondents support abstract libertiesliberties30-35% support applications of those 30-35% support applications of those libertieslibertiesThe more educated more likely to be The more educated more likely to be toleranttolerant
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ToleranceTolerance
More recent workMore recent work
Gap between abstract and appliedGap between abstract and applied
Gap between educated and not?Gap between educated and not?
Different groups-> different resultsDifferent groups-> different results
When allowed to pick groups they don’t When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerantlike, more educated nearly as intolerant
Americans not much more tolerant than in Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?the 50s?
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The MediaThe Media
Organizations that provide information to Organizations that provide information to the publicthe public
Information on politicsInformation on politics
Information on eventsInformation on events
Information on conditionsInformation on conditions
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Past Media ResearchPast Media Research
Started in late 40s as a response to WWIIStarted in late 40s as a response to WWII
Authoritarian Personality- Authoritarian Personality- Personality and Personality and Supporting FascismSupporting Fascism
Early Media- Propaganda and support for Early Media- Propaganda and support for fascismfascism
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Propaganda Propaganda
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Past Media ResearchPast Media Research
““Hypodermic Needle” modelHypodermic Needle” model
Still assumed in much of popular political Still assumed in much of popular political discoursediscourse
Generally not supported by researchGenerally not supported by research
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Past Media ResearchPast Media Research
Minimal Effects ModelMinimal Effects Model
50’s-80’s50’s-80’s
Media had very little impact on public Media had very little impact on public opinion.opinion. No evidence of direct persuasionNo evidence of direct persuasion In campaigns, Party ID was main factor In campaigns, Party ID was main factor
determining vote choicedetermining vote choice Limited volatilityLimited volatility
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Past Media ResearchPast Media Research
McClure and Patterson McClure and Patterson The Unseeing EyeThe Unseeing Eye
““Television’s Image making power is a myth.”Television’s Image making power is a myth.”
““The only noticeable effect of campaign news is The only noticeable effect of campaign news is an increased tendency among voters to view an increased tendency among voters to view politics in the same trivial terms that the politics in the same trivial terms that the newscasts depict it. Regular viewers of network newscasts depict it. Regular viewers of network news are likely to describe an election campaign news are likely to describe an election campaign as a lot of nonsense rather than a choice as a lot of nonsense rather than a choice between fundamental issues” between fundamental issues”
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Modern Media and Public OpinionModern Media and Public Opinion
Iyengar and Kinder: Iyengar and Kinder: News That MattersNews That Matters
Subtle EffectsSubtle Effects
Agenda SettingAgenda Setting
PrimingPriming
FramingFraming
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Agenda SettingAgenda Setting
News not so great at telling what to think News not so great at telling what to think
But powerful at telling people what to think But powerful at telling people what to think aboutabout
Increased media attention to an issue Increased media attention to an issue increases importance placed on itincreases importance placed on it
Can trump personal experiencesCan trump personal experiences
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Agenda SettingAgenda Setting
Health care- in 90s-78% of people Health care- in 90s-78% of people satisfied with their care, but large satisfied with their care, but large majorities think there is a health care crisismajorities think there is a health care crisisCrime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingcrime is increasingFear of crime- Not related to victimhood, Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watchhow much TV you watch
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Agenda SettingAgenda Setting
Hypothesis- those problems receive Hypothesis- those problems receive prominent attention on the national news prominent attention on the national news become the problems the viewing public become the problems the viewing public regard as the nations most importantregard as the nations most important
Implicit- More coverage-> more Implicit- More coverage-> more importanceimportance
Other factors may make story prominent Other factors may make story prominent tootoo
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Vivid CasesVivid Cases
Does telling of the story have an impact?Does telling of the story have an impact?
Presentation of vivid story (With human interest Presentation of vivid story (With human interest story) or pallid story (statistics)story) or pallid story (statistics)
Expectation- Vividness will be more likely to set Expectation- Vividness will be more likely to set the agendathe agenda
Mixed resultsMixed results
In most cases, vivid no more effective, if not lessIn most cases, vivid no more effective, if not less
In stories with race, strong negative impact on In stories with race, strong negative impact on agenda setting if person portrayed is blackagenda setting if person portrayed is black
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Lead StoriesLead Stories
Another facet of presentationAnother facet of presentation
Expectation- First story will be viewed as Expectation- First story will be viewed as more important than later storiesmore important than later stories
We all have expectations about where We all have expectations about where stories go in broadcast/paperstories go in broadcast/paper
Mostly confirmedMostly confirmed
This varies by medium- E.G. On internet, This varies by medium- E.G. On internet, less of an agenda setting effectless of an agenda setting effect
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Agenda SettingAgenda Setting
Health careHealth care80%- My Doctor Usually Explains things to me80%- My Doctor Usually Explains things to me50%- Doctors Usually Explain things to their patients50%- Doctors Usually Explain things to their patients65%- Doctors are too interested in making money65%- Doctors are too interested in making money25%- My doctor is too interested in making money25%- My doctor is too interested in making moneyCrime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingincreased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingFear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watchcrime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watch
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Agenda Setting-ImportanceAgenda Setting-Importance
Perceptions of national problems more Perceptions of national problems more politically important than perceptions of politically important than perceptions of personal problemspersonal problemsProblem- Media Coverage can lead to Problem- Media Coverage can lead to misperceptionsmisperceptionsProblem- Possible manipulationProblem- Possible manipulationUpside- Allow people to consider more Upside- Allow people to consider more than own experiencesthan own experiencesUpside- Can highlight significant problemsUpside- Can highlight significant problems
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PrimingPriming
Def: The standards citizens use to judge a Def: The standards citizens use to judge a president [or other figure] may be substantially president [or other figure] may be substantially by which stores newscasts choose to cover, and by which stores newscasts choose to cover, and consequently, which considerations are made consequently, which considerations are made generally accessiblegenerally accessible
Coverage does not necessarily change overall Coverage does not necessarily change overall evaluation, changes criteria of evaluationevaluation, changes criteria of evaluation
Overall evaluation may go up or down Overall evaluation may go up or down depending on how president is viewed as doing depending on how president is viewed as doing on a specific domainon a specific domain
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PrimingPriming
Example- George Bush and Gulf WarExample- George Bush and Gulf War
As war coverage increases, so does As war coverage increases, so does approvalapproval
As economic coverage increases, As economic coverage increases, decreasesdecreases
Irony- Economy not so bad as media Irony- Economy not so bad as media portrayalsportrayals
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FramingFraming
Because frames permeate public Because frames permeate public discussions of politics, they in effect teach discussions of politics, they in effect teach ordinary citizens how to think about and ordinary citizens how to think about and understand complex social problems... understand complex social problems... Elites wage a war of frames because they Elites wage a war of frames because they know that if their frame becomes the know that if their frame becomes the dominant way of thinking about a problem, dominant way of thinking about a problem, then the battle of public opinion has been then the battle of public opinion has been won”- Nelson and Kinder 1996won”- Nelson and Kinder 1996
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FramingFraming
Sniderman’s Value Pluralism Model- Sniderman’s Value Pluralism Model- People have a number of values that they People have a number of values that they hold strongly but that are incompatible with hold strongly but that are incompatible with one anotherone another
Issues can tap any of a number of these Issues can tap any of a number of these valuesvalues
Framing can determine which values are Framing can determine which values are deemed relevant for evaluating the issuedeemed relevant for evaluating the issue
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Klan Rally ExperimentKlan Rally Experiment
Tolerance is a tricky issueTolerance is a tricky issue
Especially the issue of tolerating Especially the issue of tolerating intoleranceintolerance
Two sets of valuesTwo sets of values Free SpeechFree Speech Public SafetyPublic Safety
Which values applied make difference for Which values applied make difference for whether people support right to marchwhether people support right to march
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Framing EffectsFraming Effects
Sexual PsychopathsSexual Psychopaths
Military in IraqMilitary in Iraq
Health CareHealth Care
AbortionAbortion
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Who is Susceptible to Media Who is Susceptible to Media Effects?Effects?
Those who are exposedThose who are exposed Moderate exposureModerate exposure
Those who are moderately awareThose who are moderately aware
Those who are trusting of the mediaThose who are trusting of the media
Political moderates?Political moderates?
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Media and ElectionsMedia and Elections
Intense CoverageIntense Coverage
Horse Race JournalismHorse Race Journalism
Public DissatisfactionPublic Dissatisfaction
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Media BiasMedia Bias
The Problem- disconnect with realityThe Problem- disconnect with reality
Perception- Liberal biasPerception- Liberal bias
Racial Bias?Racial Bias?
Class bias?Class bias?
Audience biasAudience bias
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News NormsNews Norms
ImpartialityImpartiality
Equal Time Equal Time
ConflictConflict
NoveltyNovelty
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Media TypesMedia Types
NewspapersNewspapers
Broadcast MediaBroadcast Media
RadioRadio
Narrowcasting?Narrowcasting?
CableCable
InternetInternet
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Internet And PoliticsInternet And Politics
Wide range of viewpointsWide range of viewpoints
InteractiveInteractive
Paradox- Loss of civil society?Paradox- Loss of civil society?
Reinforcement of viewsReinforcement of views
More of the Same?More of the Same?