Download - Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director
Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON
Director
African CDM Training workshop and preparatory meeting for UNFCCC COP 9
20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Energy & Development Research CentreUniversity of Cape Town
Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa
Global Trends in Climate Change DebateGlobal Trends in Climate Change Debate
Different developmental status –strongly linked to Different developmental status –strongly linked to cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the problem problem
Sharing of climate change burdenSharing of climate change burden Who should pay and amount?Who should pay and amount? Who should receive the payment?Who should receive the payment?
Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1 Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1 differsdiffers MitigationMitigation AdaptationAdaptation In-actionIn-action Multiple dividendsMultiple dividends PenaltiesPenalties
North – South PerspectivesNorth – South Perspectives
North IssuesNorth Issues Emissions reductionEmissions reduction Cost –EffectivenessCost –Effectiveness Cost of MitigationCost of Mitigation R&D & Technology R&D & Technology
DiffusionDiffusion
North StrategiesNorth Strategies Emissions Emissions
Trading/JI/CDM/Trading/JI/CDM/ Carbon TaxCarbon Tax Corporate Sector Corporate Sector
participationparticipation Technology Technology
CooperationCooperation
South IssuesSouth Issues Development is Development is
PriorityPriority Precautionary Precautionary
PrinciplePrinciple Equity concernsEquity concerns
South StrategiesSouth Strategies Development-Development-
Climate change linksClimate change links Capacity buildingCapacity building Technology transferTechnology transfer Vulnerability& Vulnerability&
AdaptationAdaptation
Specific African Issues with link to CCSpecific African Issues with link to CC
Poverty reductionPoverty reduction
Worsening environmental problemsWorsening environmental problems
Lowest user of modern energy servicesLowest user of modern energy services
Extremely weak negotiating capacitiesExtremely weak negotiating capacities
Low GHG emitterLow GHG emitter
Poor and weak integration among institutionsPoor and weak integration among institutions
Links between analytical and decision making Links between analytical and decision making improving but needs attentionimproving but needs attention
Comparing AI and NAI emissionsComparing AI and NAI emissions
Annex I: 57%
ANNUAL EMISSIONS, 1998 CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 1900- 1999
Data source: CDIAC, analysis by EDRC students
Annex I: 81%
Non-Annex I: 19%Non-Annex I: 43%
Total COTotal CO22 emission from fuel combustion, 2000 emission from fuel combustion, 2000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
USA
Germany
Russia
UK
China
India
Brazil
South Africa
Ghana
DR Congo
African total
MtCO2Source: IEA 2002Source: IEA 2002
Outlook for the future Outlook for the future
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
global
developed countries
developing countries
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation)
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
Outlook for the future Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation)
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
global
developed countries
developing countries
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
Key Elements in Designing Future CommitmentsKey Elements in Designing Future Commitments
Environmental IntegrityEnvironmental IntegrityOverall emissions cap – share of emissions by Overall emissions cap – share of emissions by
regionsregions
EquityEquityBurden sharing (linked to emissions per region-Burden sharing (linked to emissions per region-
country –capitacountry –capitaDevelopmental statusDevelopmental status
Economic /Technological Feasibility and EfficiencyEconomic /Technological Feasibility and EfficiencyTechnological developmentTechnological development
Linkage to the economic developmentLinkage to the economic developmentEmissions trading for efficiencyEmissions trading for efficiency
A variety of different approachesA variety of different approaches Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term vision Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term vision
and global by designand global by design Per capitaPer capita Brazilian proposalBrazilian proposal Full extension of KyotoFull extension of Kyoto
Others are bottom-up, focus on short-term stepsOthers are bottom-up, focus on short-term steps Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be
global?global? Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive
sectorssectors used for EU and research on global extensionused for EU and research on global extension
Multi-stage approachesMulti-stage approaches Sectoral CDM / SD-PAMsSectoral CDM / SD-PAMs
The challenge: cThe challenge: can we find ‘a logical, top-down and long-an we find ‘a logical, top-down and long-term resolution that is expected to be practised in a bottom term resolution that is expected to be practised in a bottom up regime up regime
Per capita allocationsPer capita allocations Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing
burden, start from burden, start from entitlemententitlement of each person of each person
Equal right of each person to use the Equal right of each person to use the atmosphere (global commons)atmosphere (global commons) Contraction & Convergence one example Contraction & Convergence one example
Contract to limit global Contract to limit global GHG emissionsGHG emissions
Converge on equal Converge on equal per capita emissionsper capita emissions
Linked to IET could giveLinked to IET could givemany DCs large allowancesmany DCs large allowances
National circumstances National circumstances resource endowmentresource endowment 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Em
issi
on
s p
er c
apit
a (t
CO
2eq
./p
erso
n) Annex I
Global total
Non-Annex I
Brazilian proposalBrazilian proposal
NEED MORE FROM THE OFFICAL PROPOSAL
Share emission reductions based on relative responsibility for global temperature increase (ΔT) Complex calculations back to concentrations and
emissions
Originally applied only to Annex I But since considered extension
Only approach officially proposed to UNFCCC Parties• Only energy CO2, no deforestation, other gases?
Emissions intensityEmissions intensity
Major part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDPMajor part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDP
Fixed emission targets generate risk:Fixed emission targets generate risk:
Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth, Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth, harms environmental effectivenessharms environmental effectiveness
Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-than-Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-than-expected economic growth, could result in non-complianceexpected economic growth, could result in non-compliance
Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP (CO(CO22-eq / $)-eq / $)
Not the same emissions intensity for all DCsNot the same emissions intensity for all DCs But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each
country’s own emissions intensity ?country’s own emissions intensity ?
Not inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocationNot inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocation Depends on stringency of bothDepends on stringency of both
Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)
Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below 1990 levels1990 levels Grandfathers emissions by countryGrandfathers emissions by country Sets absolute number of tons of GHG emissionsSets absolute number of tons of GHG emissions
Possibility to join Annex I by Possibility to join Annex I by 1.1. Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)2.2. Decision by the COP to amend Annex IDecision by the COP to amend Annex I
Advantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KPAdvantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KP
Building on existing instrumentsBuilding on existing instruments Flexible mechanismsFlexible mechanisms Reporting and monitoring systemReporting and monitoring system
But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?
SD-PAMsSD-PAMs Sustainable development policies and measuresSustainable development policies and measures
Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by SD, but that also achieve some ERsSD, but that also achieve some ERs Outline development objectives and identify more Outline development objectives and identify more
sustainable path sustainable path Quantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissionsQuantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissions Report under National Communications or FCCC registryReport under National Communications or FCCC registry
Key issuesKey issues Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention
Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10 Establishing national baseline emissionsEstablishing national baseline emissions Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM
Under FCCC, no new agreement neededUnder FCCC, no new agreement needed
Can happen in parallel and may be a useful transition processCan happen in parallel and may be a useful transition process
Possible corridors to stabilizationPossible corridors to stabilization
Source of stabilization paths: IPCC WGIII chapter 2, post SRES scenarios, CO2 only
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Glo
bal
an
thro
po
gen
ic C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
)
450
550
Multi-stage approachesMulti-stage approaches
Current strong division AI / NAI:Current strong division AI / NAI: Incentive to join Annex I – emissions tradingIncentive to join Annex I – emissions trading Disincentive: G77 solidarityDisincentive: G77 solidarity
C&C requires all DCs to join at onceC&C requires all DCs to join at once 49 LDCs 49 LDCs together addtogether add 0.5 % of annual global CO 0.5 % of annual global CO22
Multiple stagesMultiple stages Annex I countries continue with emission reduction Annex I countries continue with emission reduction
commitmentscommitments Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.
No commitmentNo commitment Reduce emission intensityReduce emission intensity Stabilise emissionsStabilise emissions Share in emission reductions Share in emission reductions (den Elzen 2002)(den Elzen 2002)
TriggersTriggers Particular yearsParticular years ThresholdsThresholds
E.g. GDP / cap E.g. GDP / cap E.g. Emissions per capita E.g. Emissions per capita
Source: Hoehne presentation, EcofysSource: Hoehne presentation, Ecofys
Equity as a PrincipleEquity as a Principle
Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change ((mitigation costsmitigation costs))
Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (adaptation adaptation costscosts))
Fair Fair processprocess of agreeing internationally how to determine costs of agreeing internationally how to determine costs
Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the long-termlong-term and and in a in a transitiontransition phase phase
Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3 Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’ Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’ Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability, Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability,
poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding outcomes” outcomes”
‘‘Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”
World Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1971 1997 2010 2020
Mtoe
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Renew ables
Source: WEO, 2001
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000C
O2
Em
issi
on
s kg
CO
2/M
Wh
Co
al-f
ired
ste
amtu
rbin
e
Cle
an C
oal
fir
ed
Co
alg
asif
icat
ion
/ste
amtu
rbin
e
Co
al C
HP
Gas
Co
mb
ined
Cyc
le
Gas
CH
P
Comparison of CO2 Emissions in Fossil Fuel Plants
Series1
Efficiency and CO2 Emissions and Power Plants
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
30 40 50 60 70
Efficiency(%)
CO
2 em
issi
on
s, k
g/M
Wh
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Steam Turbine
PFBCIGCC
Fuel Cell
COAL
OIL
Diesel enfine
Diesel engine&Steam Turbine Fuel Cell
Gas Turbine
Gas Turbine & Steam Turbine
Gas engine
Fuel Cell
NATURAL GAS
PFBC -Pulverised Fuel CombustionIGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
New Options
• Natural gas fired combined cycles are preffered because of low costs, high efficiency, low environmental impacts
• Co-generation is cost-effective especially when used in the form of gas turbines and combined cycles
• Fuel cells for small power generation• Coal gasification can lead to power production
integrated gasifier combined cycles (IGCC)• Use of Renewable Energy Technologies• Promotion of energy efficiency
Elements of Technology Protocol
• Technology transfer incentives – High quality energy technologies
• Agreement on reducing energy intensity – energy use per product – A converging range– Time allowance– Sector dependent
• Agreement on overall efficiency per sector (range)• Agreement on dematerialization trends (range)• Agreement on fuel efficiency
Critical Issues for Energy Development in AfricaCritical Issues for Energy Development in Africa
Linking global and local environmental issuesLinking global and local environmental issues SSearch for win-win solutionsearch for win-win solutions Search for trade-offsSearch for trade-offs
Substantial increase in energy accessSubstantial increase in energy access Abundant reservesAbundant reserves Search for technologiesSearch for technologies Search for investmentsSearch for investments
Energy securityEnergy security Control outside interestsControl outside interests Linking to environmental security Linking to environmental security
Energy & Development Research Centre
University of Cape Town,