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Prioritising rainwater management strategies
An Notenbaert
March 2013
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Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin…
Funded by CPWF - in collaboration with IWMI, OARI, ARARI, ERHA
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Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin…
Multi-stage process
Diagnosis
Alternative options
Characterisationof the options
Targeting / out-scaling
(ex-ante) Impact assessment
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A multitude of challenges
• Food insecurity• High poverty levels• Declining soil fertility• Low and variable yields• Land degradation• Water logging• ….
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Characterisation of the rainwater management practices (RMPs)
• Many different practices aimed at addressing one/several of these challenges
• Suitable in different contexts
• Bio-physical, socio-economic and institutional conditions that influence their suitability, adoption and success.
RMP database
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“Suitability maps”
- Matching conditions favoring the successful implementation of an option to a spatially referenced database:
- Delineation of geographical areas where this specific strategy is likely to have a positive impact.
transforming the previously identified characteristics for a technology into variables for which spatial data exist or can be collected
GIS overlays
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“Suitability maps”
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Adoption of RMPs
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Adoption of RMPsVariable at farm level
(farm household survey)Orchard SWC Irrigation from the river Variable at woreda level
Landholding size -0.3633014(0.002)
-0.32609(0)
0.8432849(0.001)
Average landholding size*
Landholding size square 0.0098738(0.469)
0.025805(0.031)
-0.1226992(0.006)
average plot size 2.875819(0)
-1.460356(0.01)
Average plot size*
number of plots 0.077025(0)
0.0933675(0.001)
Land fragmentation*
Household size/landholding size
0.0124864(0.018)
Population density*
female headed HH (binary)
-0.9771629(0.001)
Proportion of female headed household*
Has off-farm income (binary)
0.324617(0.027)
Proportion of households not solely dependent on agriculture*
Has hired labor (binary) 0.0038905(0)
Proportion on household who hired labor*
Access to advise from the extension service (binary)
0.0038905(0)
0.390598(0)
Proportion of household with access to extension service*
access to credit (binary) 0.3168265(0.008)
Proportion of households with access to credit services*
time to market -0.108154(0.01)
Travel time**
time to market sq 0.0017995(0.041)
distance to market 0.723262(0.001)
Distance to town with more 10 000 inhabitant **
distance to market squared
-0.0015395(0.023)
Constant 0.5559211(0.036)
0.088009(0.586)
-4.648007(0)
Observations 683 724 814 R-squared 0.1073 0.096 0.1111 Condition slope>0 erosion>0 at least one flat plot
p-value in bracket *taken from the Ethiopian Rural Economic Atlas (census data)** other geographical layer (see data description in table 2)
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Feasibility maps
Suitability x adoption = feasibility
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Rainwater management strategies
• Rainwater management practices to be combined into Rainwater Management Strategies at landscape scale
Overall aim: sustainably increase the system’s productivityTrade-offs / synergiesAt different spatial and temporal scale
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Blue Nile strategies
On the basis of the experiences from the GIZ/SLM program, we identified a number of “best-bet” practices; currently being promoted
Zone\Land use
Main objective (examples)
Cropland Grassland Degraded land
Uplands Increase infiltration(Agro-forestry, orchards and multipurpose trees)
Increase the quantity and quality of fodder for livestock(Over-sowing, limiting animal movements)
Rehabilitate degraded land(Forestry, gully rehabilitation)
Midlands Control erosion, maintain soil moisture(Soil and water conservation,Conservation agriculture)
Lowlands More efficient use of surface or shallow groundwater(Wells, river diversion)
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Blue Nile strategies
Strategy quantification (C)
Suitability / feasibility map
practice I
Suitability / feasibility map
practice II
Suitability / feasibility map
practice III
Rainwater management strategy map (D)
Landscape delineation layer (A)
Targets practice I
Zonal statistics (B)
Targets practice II
Targets practice III
Nile Tool
per watershed: “most likely to be adopted” strategy
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Impact Assessment
- For different stakeholders- At different spatial and temporal scales (e.g.
downstream effects)- In terms of different metrics: yield
increases, economic returns, food security and income, environmental sustainability, social and cultural acceptability.
This is where the Basin wide SWAT modeling comes in
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Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin…
Multi-stage process
Diagnosis
Alternative options
Characterisationof the options
Targeting / out-scaling
(ex-ante) Impact assessment