Download - Priorities of Pakistan in Energy Sector
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PRIORITIES OFPRIORITIES OF PAKISTAN
IN ENERGY SECTORENERGY CONFERENCEENERGY CONFERENCE
POWER & ALTERNATIVE ENERGYPOWER & ALTERNATIVE ENERGYKarachi expo Centre
C29 MARCH 2014
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SEQUENCESEQUENCE
1. BACK GROUND INFORMATION
2. CURRENT POSITION OF ENERGY
3. DECISION MAKING IN ENERGY SECTOR
4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GRID POWER
5. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION
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BACK GROUND INFORMATION
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INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOLAR
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145 mw Solar PV Plant GNeuhardenberg Germany
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Charanka, India 10 MW solar PV Power Plant
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CHINACHINA
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SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ALL NEW POWER (GW) DURINGIN EUROPE DURING THE YEAR 2009
12
10
12
A
T
T
S
6
8
G
I
G
A
W
2
4
O
W
E
R
G
0
2
N
D
A
S
A
R
A
L
S
S
O
I
L
T
E
A
R
R
O
A
R
P
P
W
I
N
G
A
S
O
L
A
P
V
C
O
A
B
I
O
M
A
S
O
W
A
S
T
N
U
C
L
E
A
H
Y
D
R
S
O
L
A
C
S
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ENERGY SOURCE
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Japan 2013- 10,000 MW of installed PV 2016- 20,000 MW PLANNED
It is w rth mentioning that residenti l It is worth mentioning that residential PV systems amount o 80% of thePV systems amount to 80% of the total installed capacity in Japan.
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Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission SolarishiMission Solarishi
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India
TARIFF = USD 0.29) per kWh for the first 12 years and Rs 5 (about USD 0 10) per kWh fro the 1and Rs 5 (about USD 0.10) per kWh from the 13th to 25th year.
About 600 MW were completed prior to the deadline of January 28, 2012 to receive the above tariff.
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CHINA SOLAR PV VOSTS255w polycrystalli nel wi U255w polycrystalline solar panel with CE TUV MC...
FOB Price: US $ ~0 65/FOB Price: US $0.60 0.65/ WATTGet Latest Price
1 CE TUV IEC61215 IEC61730 CEC CGC MCS ETL Certified1 CE TUV IEC61215 IEC61730 CEC CGC MCS ETL Certified THEREFORE SOLAR PV COST= 0.6MILLION/MW
CHINA SOLAR PV COSTSCHINA SOLAR PV COSTSpoly 230w solar panel
FOB Price: US $0.4~0.6/ WATT THEREFORE SOLAR PV COST= $0.5 MILLION/MW
230w solar panel in stock 2.TUV/CE/ROHS/FCC certficate
% working efficiency3.16% working efficiency 4. 25 years warranty
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Decisions in Energy Sector
All decisions in Energy Sector are being gy gtaken at Federal Level
Relevant HR Experti in Energy Sec Relevant HR Expertise in Energy Sector SERIOUSLY Missing
Time taken to develop HR com arativel lon unless im ortedp y g p
Existing Mechanism of Decision Making needs to be complimented by expertsneeds to be complimented by experts
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INSTALLED CAPACITY OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN IN MW'SHydel Thermal Nuclear
25,000
2013- 22,797 MW NUCLEAR20,000
,
15,000
THERMAL10,000
THERMAL0,000
5,000
HYDRO088/89 90/91 92/93 96/97 98/99 99/00 00/01 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
HYDRO
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HYDRO POWER PROJSHYDRO POWER PROJS
PROJ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
121 ALLAIKHAWAR MW
KHAN KHAWAR72 MW
DUBER KHAWAR130 MW
96JINNAH
96 MW
NEELUM JHELUM274 MW
Installation cost/kw for Jabban HydroPP Rs. 169, 745 (US$ 1997 / KW)
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Pakistan Breaks Ground on Nuclear Plant Project With ChinaWith China
By SALMAN MASOOD and CHRIS BUCKLEY
Published: November 26, 2013,ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday ceremonially r g u nSharif on Tuesday ceremonially broke ground on a $9.59 billion; 2,200- MW nuclear power
l t b b ilt i K hi ith Chi hcomplex to be built in Karachi with Chinas help
$ 4 36 illion/$ 4.36 million/ MWWILL TAKE 6 TO 7 YEARS
Does not include Transmission cosDoes not include Transmission costs
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ANNUALELECTRICTYGENERATIONCOMPARISONDESIGNEDGENERATIONCAPACITY[GWH] 201112[GWH]
11,826
8,891
7,446
5 606
7,446
5593
2,1371,708
5,606
1 524
1,3143681
19181,156
1,524307 149 342
163 48 56 284 961656 108 0 2
SPSFaisalabad
GTPSFaisalabad
NGPSMultan
TPSMuzaffarGarh
TPSGuddu(unit14)
TPSGuddu(unit513)
GTPSKotri FBCLakhra TPSJamshoro
TPSQuetta TPSPasni TPSPanjgur
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UTILIZATIONFACTOROFTHERMALPOWERPLANTSINPUBLICSECTOR:AVERAGEOFFIVEYEARS
70
80
50
60
30
40
20
30
UF
0
10
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15 YEARS AVERAGE TILIZATION FACTOR OF HYDRO POWER
62 73 61 14 61 88
FACTOR OF HYDRO POWER
50.9558.37
62.73 61.1453.29
58.31 61.88
45 57
36.0030 37 32.40
45.5742.55
30.3727.16
48%48%
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INSTALLED/ DESIGNED POWER GENERATION VERSUS ACTUAL POWER GENERATION
199,701,720
94 385 00094,385,000
DESIGN ACTUAL
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850 MW JAMSHORO THERMAL POWER PLANT850MWJAMSHOROTHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSJAMSHORO850MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 43 9%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:43.9%
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850MWJAMSHOROTHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSJAMSHORO850MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 43 9%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:43.9%
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GUDDU THERMAL POWER PLANT TPS GUDDU 640 MW
UTILIZATION 40 7%UTILIZATION FACTOR: 40.7%
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GUDDU THERMAL POWER PLANT TPS GUDDU 640 MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR:UTILIZATION FACTOR: 40.7%
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Shahdara 59 MWUF =0%
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GTPS FaisalabadUF= 6%%
GTPS 244GTPS Faisalabad
244 MW
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SPS 132SPS Faisalabad
132 MW
STEAM POWER STATIONSTEAM POWER STATIONFaisalabad UF =16%
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KOTRI THERMAL POWER PLANTGTPS KOTRI 174 MW
UTILIZATION 38 %UTILIZATION FACTOR: 38.5%
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KOTRI THERMAL POWER PLANTGTPS KOTRI 174 MWGTPS KOTRI 174 MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 38.5%
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LAKHRA THERMAL POWER PLANTFBC LAKHRA 150 MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33 6%33.6%
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LAKHRA THERMAL POWER PLANTFBC LAKHRA 150 MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33.6%
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QUETTA THERMAL POWER PLANTQUETTATHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSQUETTA35MW
UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:33%
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QUETTATHERMALPOWERPLANTTPS QUETTA 35 MWTPSQUETTA35MW
UTILIZATIONFACTOR:33%
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MuzaffargarhMuzaffargarh UF = 33%UF = 33%
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SOLAR ENERGY = 1KW/SQ M
[REF PSYB 2011]
1 M
[REF: PSYB -2011]
1 SQ KM = 100 HECTARES1 KW1 M 1 SQ KM = 100 HECTARES1 HECTARE= 100 SQ M
PAKISTANS AREA= 79.61 MILLION HECTARESAREA (in sq m)= 7 961 000 000 SQMTOTAL AREA (in sq m)= 7,961,000,000 SQM
PAKISTAN receives 7 961 000 000 KW of solar radiationsPAKISTAN receives 7,961,000,000 KW of solar radiations .7.9 MILLION MW
@10% = 790,000 MW
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MAY
SOURCE: SOLAR ENERGY GUIDE AND DATABOOK
FOR PAKISTANFOR PAKISTAN
NASIM .A.KHAN
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RECOMMENDATIONS
CONVERT 1000 MW ON TO SOLAR PV BY USING SAME GRID STATION GRID STATION TRANSMISSION LINES
MANPOWER MANPOWER LAND
TIME 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHS
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RECOMMENDATIONS Contd
Contact two or three Chinese Manufacturers for Low cost Low cost competition Rapid Installation All provinces done simultaneously
REDUCE TIME FURTHER i.e. LESS THAN 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHSTHAN 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHS
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RECOMMENDATIONS Contd
Additional jobs, businesses j Jobs
Low level businesses Low level businesses Recirculation of funds Better utilization of existing resources
Market develo ment in technolop gy
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REMOTE ELECTRIFICATION
VILLAGES 10 KM AWAY FROM GRID
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POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN IN PAKISTAN
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Overview of village Bharomal (Sindh)Bharomal (Sindh)
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ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION OF WEST
SOLAR/AE
50
NUCLEAR
50 YRS
50 YRS
OIL & GASYRS
NIL
WOOD COALMILLIONS OF YRS
150 YEARS
OF YRSTHOUSANDS OF YRS
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ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION OF REMOTE AREAS OF PAKISTOF REMOTE AREAS OF PAKISTAN
NIL WOOD
(MILLIONS OF YEARS)
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ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITIONENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION RECOMMENDED STRATEGY PAKISTAN
SOLAR/AE
50
NUCLEAR
50 YRS
50 YRS
OIL & GASNIL
WOOD COALMILLIONS OF YRS
150 YEARS
OF YRSTHOUSANDS OF YRS
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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES
A QUESTION IS, WHEN WOULD AN AVERAGE PAKISTANI USE ENERGY
EQUAL TO ENGLAN OF 1970 ?EQUAL TO ENGLAND OF 1970 ?
PLAN SUCH A TARGETTED GROWTH FOR THE YEAR 2030 OR 2050YEAR 2030 OR 2050
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ENERGY GROWTH MODEL FOR PAKISTAN
800002030 MODEL 2050 MODEL
UK-1970
60000
70000
D
W
)
40000
50000
A
L
L
E
D
R
(
M
W
20000
30000
40000
I
N
S
T
A
P
O
W
E
R
EXISTING GROWTH RATE
10000
20000
P
PAKISTAN 2013
01 2 3 4 5 6
BEGINNING OF DECADE
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INSTALLATION COST OF SOLAR PV POWER PLANT ABB
SERVICES
PV
SERVICES22%
PV PANELS42%
CABLES ETC8%
INVERTERS ETC
STRUCTURES18%
10%
18%
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BREAKDOWN OF PV POWER PLANT COSTS 2013
SALES TAX4%
ELECTRICAL1% PERMITTING
1%INVERTER
5%
%
MODULES33%
LABOR
MOUNTING5%
LABOR7%
OTHER COSTS12%
BUS O/H32%
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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION