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Presentation to the GIS Day Event, 17-18 November 2014, Environment House
Compiled and presented by Peter Lukey , Chief Policy Advisor: Strategic Environmental Intelligence
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An Introduction the Department of Environmental Affairs’
Quarterly Environmental Threat, Weakness and Opportunity Scan
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Background – The changing context for national environmental governance
• Mainstreaming of environment into sectors is a victory for the environment and sustainable development in general, but marks a subtle, but required, shift in the modus operandi of the DEA.
• The question “why should we consider the environment?” is changing to “how best should we consider the environment?”
• In practice, this means that the department must evolve from an organisation that implements environmental management to a sustainable development facilitation and knowledge management organisation.
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Background – The changing context for national environmental governance (Cont.)
• In simple terms, the department must now –
– show leadership as opposed to merely lobbying leadership;
– demonstrate expertise rather than relying on the external “independent” expertise it needed to use to demonstrate the credibility of its positions;
– transition from “environmental management” to “sustainable development”
– demonstrate its efficacy as a driver of a new, green, development path by effectively challenging perceptions of it being simply a “hand brake” on the business-as-usual development path.
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Organisational Agility
• QETWOS is a tool that has been developed to contribute to DEA’s organisational agility.
• Organisational agility refers to the capability of an organisation to rapidly change or adapt in response to changes in its operating context and environment.
• A high degree of organisational agility can help an organisation like the department to react timeously and successfully to –
– the emergence of new threats, weaknesses and opportunities,
– the development of new sector-changing strategies, systems and technologies, or
– sudden shifts in overall contextual or policy conditions.
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QETWOS History
• The QETWOS system was approved at the departmental 3D Management Meeting of 21 January 2013.
• The inaugural QETWOS Workshop was held at the Leriba Hotel and Spa, Centurion, on Monday, 25 March 2013.
• There have been 4 QETWOS Workshops to date with the latest having taken place on 30 September 2014
• Workshops are held back-to-back with the department’s Knowledge and Information Forum (KNIMF) meetings every six months
• A QETWOS report is presented to 3D, 4D and/or the DEA Risk Management Committee every quarter
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QETWOS Issues
• In order for an issue to be included in the QETWOS, it must meet at least the first and one other of the following criteria –
– The issue is a new and/or emerging issue, i.e. it is an issue that is not being specifically dealt with in any departmental strategic plan, Annual Performance Plan, Performance Agreement, MINTECHWorking Group Work Plan, DDG Cluster agenda item and/or any 3/4/5D Management Meeting decision;
– There is a reasonable concern that the issue is, or could become, a significant threat to the efficiency and/or effectiveness of the South African system of environmental governance;
– There is a reasonable concern that the issue is, or could become, a significant threat to the quality, integrity or functioning of the South African natural environment and/or environmental media – air, soil, fresh- and sea-water;
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QETWOS Issues (Cont.)
– There is a reasonable concern that the issue indicates a possible significant weakness in the South African system of environmental governance;
– There is a reasonable belief that the issue presents a possible significant opportunity for improving the efficiency and/or effectiveness of the South African system of environmental governance;
– There is a reasonable belief that the issue is, or could become, a significant opportunity for improving the quality, integrity or functioning of the South African natural environment and/or environmental media – air, soil, fresh- and sea-water;
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Step 1: Issue Identification
Issue identificationThe acceptance that an issue may
present a threat to-, indicate a weakness in- or present an
opportunities for- environmental governance in South Africa
Articles in newspapers, magazines, websites,
journals, etc.
Information from general contacts, stakeholder
networks, e-mails, etc.
Information from conferences, seminars,
workshops, etc.
Information from specialist information
gathering services, etc.
Information from
colleagues!!!
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Step 2: Initial Screening
Issue identificationThe acceptance that an issue may
present a threat to-, indicate a weakness in- or present an
opportunities for- environmental governance in South Africa
Initial screeningThe identified issue is subjected to an initial, informal, significance
screening
Informal SMS discussion within EAS
Potentially significant
Insignificant issue
More inforequired
Focussed research, intelligence gathering, etc.
Urgent issue
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Step 3: Urgent DG/3D Briefing
Urgent issue
Urgent DG/3D BriefingIssues that are deemed to be
significant and urgent are immediately brought to the
attention of top management
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Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring
Potentially significant
Six-monthly QETWOSworkshop
Urgent DG/3D BriefingIssues that are deemed to be
significant and urgent are immediately brought to the attention
of top management
Issue Analysis and significance scoringThe identified issue is included in the
issue analysis matrix and is analysed and scored against set parameters for specific
key priority areas
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Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
Variable
Worst
Enviro.
Outcome
Best
Enviro.
Outcome
Variable
Worst
Enviro.
Outcome
Best
Enviro.
Outcome
Environmental Policy
Impact-5 -5 Air Quality Impact -2 4
Job Creation Impact 5 10 Water Quality Impact -5 -3
Poverty Alleviation
Impact2 5 Water Quantity Impact -5 -5
Public Health Impact -2 3 Soil Quality Impact -2 -1
International Standing
Impact-8 -5
General Biodiversity
Impact-2 -1
Climate Change
Mitigation Impact-8 5
Sensitive Habitat
Impact-4 -2
Climate Change
Resilience Impact-4 -1
Sensitive Species
Impact-4 -2
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Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
Variable interpretation
Scope and Scoring
-10 -5 0 +5 +10
Public
Health
Impact
Question -
the issue has
a [?] Impact
on public
health
Devastating -
the issue
could
seriously
undermine
public health
improvement
efforts or
could result in
>100,000
people
getting
measurably
sicker
Significant
negative - the
issue could
have a
measurable
negative
impact on
public health
improvement
efforts or
could result in
>10,000
people
getting
measurably
sicker
Neutral - the
issue is likely
to have little,
if any, impact
on public
health or
public health
improvement
efforts
Significant
positive - the
issue could
have a
measurable
positive
impact on
public health
improvement
efforts or
could result in
>10,000
people
getting
healthier
Impressive -
the issue
could
dramatically
contribute to
public health
improvement
efforts or
could result
in >100,000
people
getting
healthier
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Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
• Once the scoring is complete, the spread-sheet carries out a calculation that results in each issue being awarded comparative ratings for –
– Worst Case Scenario – This figure represents an average of all the key priority area scores awarded in respect of the worst environmental scenario for the issue.
– Best Case Scenario – This figure represents an average of all the key priority area scores awarded in respect of the best environmental scenario for the issue…
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– Potential Down-side Rating – This provides worst and best case scenario figures for the average of all the negative scores awarded for each key priority area.
– Potential Up-side Rating – This provides worst and best case scenario figures for the average of all the positive scores awarded for each key priority area.
– Average Impact Rating – This figure provides the average of the “Worst Case Scenario” and “Best Case Scenario” indicators described above...
Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
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– Significance Rating – This figure takes the “Average Impact Rating” and multiplies this by the highest score (whether positive or negative, i.e. the score as an integer is assessed) awarded for any of the key priority area in respect of the worst and best possible outcomes. What this figure provides is a comparative indicator of the overall significance and/or proposed priority of the issue.
Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
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-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Outcome 10 AQTarget
Speciesextinction
RE rolloutgovernance
barriers
Peak phosporus Marine Mining Fracking e-Tolling Infrastructure Bill
2012/03/10
2012/09/20
2012/10/11
2013/01/11
Step 4: Issue Analysis and Significance Scoring (Cont.)
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Step 5 & 6: Trend Tracking and 3/4D Report
Quarterly 3/4D or RMC Environmental Threat, Weakness and Opportunity Report presentation
The quarterly QETWOS Report and associated presentation is compiled following the quarterly EAS QETWOS workshop and is based on the updated issue analysis matrix and score trends
3/4D discussion of the quarterly
QETWOS Report
Trend TrackingThe significance score
of issues that are subjected to on-going
monitoring iscompared to previous
scores
More inforequired
Potentially significant
Insignificant issue
On-going monitoring
Issue Analysis and significance scoringThe identified issue is included in the issue analysis matrix and is analysed and scored
against set parameters for specific key priority areas
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Step 5 & 6: Trend Tracking and 3/4D Report (Cont.)
Report being prepared by
obvious vested interests
with environment probably
the least of their concerns
DG bilateral
appears to ensure
that environment on
the agenda
Acting DG bilateral
appears to ensure
that environment
remains on the
agenda
Cabinet decision
appears to support
a risk-averse step-
wise approach
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Approved response action3/4D or DEA RMC minutes reflect the approved actions to be taken in respect of issues that are
potentially significant and that require a response other than on-going monitoring
Step 7: Approved Response Action
Potentially significant
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E-wasteFrackinge-Tolling
Famine weedMarine Mining
Peak phosphorusInfrastructure Bill
Environmental OffsettingOutcome 10 Air Quality TargetSpecies extinction (Blue Crane)
Marine oil spill response capacitySoil decontamination – waste license
Optimal land-use for climate resilienceUnseaworthy patrol and research vessels
Social dialogue / Participatory governance The Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act (Act No. 16 of 2013)
Governance barriers to renewable energy rollout (e.g. DAFF's wind farm regs)
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Current QETWOS Issues• 7 issues were confirmed as issues to be analysed, scored and monitored under the
QETWOS system at the last QETWOS workshop held on 30 September 2014 –
– including 3 re-confirmed issues:
• Social dialogue / Real Public Participation;
• Infrastructure Act; and
• Optimal land-use for sustainable development
– 2 previous issues subjected to 3R questions:
• Closing the phosphate cycle; and
• Traffic Management
– and 2 completely new issues:
• Solar Energy Research Centre; and
• DEA and Disaster Management.
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Current QETWOS Issues
-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Absolute Worst Case Reference Case
Social Dialogue / Real Public Participation
Infrastructure Act
Optimal land-use for sustainable development
Traffic Management
Closing the phosphate cycle
Solar Energy Research Centre
DEA and Disaster Management
Absolute Best Case Reference Case
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My top 5 new and emerging trends within the environmental sector
• Climate Change response – the most important game in town:• Kicking the fossil fuel addiction
• Protecting and restoring degraded ecological infrastructure for increased resilience
• The mind-shift and governance transition from “environmental management” and the perception of the environment sector being “a hand-brake on business-as-usual” to leadership in -, and facilitation of -, “sustainable development”
• Impact monitoring, reporting and verification, including:– Environment and sustainable development Indicators
– Utilising big data
– Accounting (natural resources, carbon, optimal land-use, etc.)
• Optimal land-use – water / minerals / food / ecological infrastructure conflict
• Environmental offsetting – reversing environmental quality decline through the effective implementation of the polluter-pays principle
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An Introduction to the DEA/CSIR Rapid Response Research (3R) Facility
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Background
• In early 2013, the department’s Environmental Advisory Services proposed using the DEA-CSIR MoU to utilise the specialist knowledge, experience, expertise and skills available within the CSIR to provide the department with a rapid scientific response to strategic questions requiring urgent answers.
• To this end, the so-called “Rapid Response Research” or 3R component of cooperation under the DEA-CSIR MoU was devised.
• On 12 August 2013, the Acting Director-General approved the establishment of the 3R Facility by means of an appropriate Service Level Agreement between the department and the CSIR.
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Background (Cont.)
• The required Service Level Agreement was vetted and approved for signature by Legal Services on 20 December 2013 and the Agreement was finally signed by both parties on 30 January 2014.
• The first 3R questions were devised and submitted on 7 March 2014.
• An initial R1,5 million was transferred into the 3R Fund on 13 March 2014.
• To date, 9 questions have been submitted.
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The 3R Facility
The Rapid Response Research (3R) Facility provides a fast-track means of exploiting
the extensive CSIR human resource base to provide initial information gathering and
assessment in respect of new and/or emerging environmental and sustainable
development threats, weaknesses and opportunities
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3R Support Criteria
• Duration - The time taken from the formal submission of an acceptable research question to the formal receipt of the written findings of the quick turn-around research and analysis should not exceed 30 calendar days.
• Scope and Cost - The work involved in compiling and submitting high quality written findings of the quick turn-around research and analysis should not require more than 24 dedicated work hours by a senior researcher and the cost to the department may not exceed R99,999.
• Expertise - The CSIR will make every effort to ensure that the most appropriate expertise is employed in compiling and submitting high quality written findings of the quick turn-around research and analysis, i.e. the CSIR will not accept a 3R assignment if they cannot employ the most appropriate expertise in its completion.
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3R – The 10 Step Process
• Step 1 – Issue identification
• Step 2 – The Research Question
• Step 3 – Formal submission
• Step 4 – Quote
• Step 5 – Go-ahead
• Step 6 - Quick turn-around research and analysis
• Step 7 – Draft findings and feedback
• Step 8 – Submission of Findings
• Step 9 – Confirmation of receipt and payment approval
• Step 10 – Final DEA wrap-up meeting
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3R Issue Identification
• New and/or emerging issues that may have a significant impact on the quality of the South African environment and, in particular, issues that meet the following criteria, are brought to the attention of the department’s Strategic Environmental Intelligence (SEI) Unit by a “3R Client” –
– Issues that are, or could become, a significant threat to the efficiency and/or effectiveness of the South African system of environmental governance;
– Issues that indicate a possible significant weakness in the South African system of environmental governance; or
– Issues that present a possible significant opportunity for improving the efficiency and/or effectiveness of the South African system of environmental governance.
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3R – Posing the Question
• The question is submitted using a simple 1 page template that –
– Describes the issue in 10 brief bullet points or less
– Provides a one sentence research question
– Provides contact details for the 3R Client
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3R Funding
• The SEI Unit has deposited the initial R1,5 million for use in 2014/15
• Sections who wish to use the 3R are encouraged to cover their costs through transfers into the 3R fund
• All unspent 3R funds must be returned to the department by mid-February every year
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The 3R Questions So Far
1. With reference to local and international norms and standards and benchmarks (case studies), is there a significant mine dust and/or radioactivity problem in the West Rand and, if so, what would be the most important health concern – the dust, or the radioactivity?
2. Would significantly improving a city the size of Pretoria’s traffic flow have a measurable and/or significant impact on fuel usage and atmospheric emissions?
3. Could the Municipal Finance Management Act No. 56 of 2003 (MFMA) significantly hinder or frustrate effective municipal climate change responses and/or a transition to a green economy and, if yes, how?
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The 3R Questions So Far (Cont.)
4. Is South Africa using the methane it could viably, if not cost-effectively, extract from its larger waste water treatment facilities, especially those already equipped with methane capture infrastructure, as efficiently and effectively is it could and, if not, why not?
5. Is there a potentially significant social, environmental and/or economic justification for the development of a national phosphorus strategy that could guide South Africa’s extraction, processing, use, recovery and general management of its phosphorus resources?
6. What is soil health, what is its environmental significance and who is doing what and why in the area of soil health, including monitoring, research, policies, legal provisions and governance provisions?
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The 3R Questions So Far (Cont.)
7. When compared to traditional coal mining and coal use, could UCG and the use of the extracted gas provide a significantly more environmentally benign means of exploiting South Africa’s coal reserves?
8. What are the potential environmental impacts, both positive and negative, of the extraction and use of coalbed methane in South Africa?
9. Based on the work already carried out by the CSIR in respect of waste management charges, what could a possible pricing strategy look like that would meet the requirements of the strategy contemplated in Section 13A of the National Environmental Management: Waste Amendment Bill?
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The 3R Questions So Far (Cont.)
10. How could we reduce the SA Agulhas II’s carbon footprint?
11. Do we have significant ocean-related energy resources (e.g. offshore wind, wave, tidal, current, salinity, temperature difference, etc.) when compared to our more traditional energy resources and, if so, what is the technological readiness for potential large-scale exploitation of these marine renewable energy resources in the short-term (say the next five years), medium-term (say within the next 10 years) and long-term (say to the NDP’s 2030 planning horizon)??
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Current StatusNo. Question Status
1. West Rand Radioactive Dust Awaiting much delayed researchresults
2. Urban Traffic Flow, Fuel Use and Emissions Revised quote accepted, and work underway
3. The MFMA and the Green Economy Awaiting delayed quote
4. GHG Emissions and Wastewater Treatment Facilities Awaiting much delayed researchresults
5. “Peak Phosphate” and its Implications Research completed and signed off
6. Who’s Who in Soil Health? Research completed and signed off
7. Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and the Environment
Awaiting delayed quote
8. Coalbed Methane (CBM) and the Environment Awaiting delayed quote
9. Possible Pricing Strategy as Contemplated In S.13A of Waste Management Amendment Bill
Work underway
10. SA Agulhas II’s carbon footprint Question still being formulated
11. ocean-related energy resources Research completed awaiting sign-off
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