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Preferred citation style
Axhausen, K.W. (2005) Activity spaces, biographies, social networks and their welfare gains and externalities: Some hypothesis and empirical results, PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 2005.
Activity spaces, biographies, social networks and their welfare gains and externalities: Some hypothesis and empirical results
KW Axhausen
IVTETHZürich
March 2005
3
Time-scaled “road”-Switzerland (1950 and 2000)S
cher
er, 2
004
4
Markets: Price deflation for cars
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Jahr
Qu
alitä
tsbe
rein
igte
r P
reis
ind
ex
(2
004
= 1
00)
[%]
Frei, 2004
Raff und Trajtenberg, 1990
Fre
i, 20
05
5
Markets: Price deflation for telecommunicationN
ach
FC
C (
2001
)
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Inde
x [1
995
= 1
00]
US International and interstate averagerevenue per minute
6
Example of a local activity space
Female, 24
Full time
Single
216 trips / 6 weeks
12000761Sch
önfe
lder
7
Example of a social network geography
Female, 28,
4 moves,
Public
transport user
Ohn
mac
ht, 2
004
8
Example: Commuter sheds of the 10 largest Swiss townsN
ach
Bot
te, 2
003
9
Size of activity spaces: A hypothesis
Wages
Fleetcomfort
Housingconsumption
vtts et al.
Activities
Specialisation
Activity space
k
vkm
pkmTours ++
+
++
++
++
++
+
+
-
- -
+
-
Energy costs
+
+-
Elasticity > 0 Elasticity < 0
k: personal short term generalisedcosts of travel
+
-
Migration+
+
10
Impact of biographies: Hypotheses
Personalworld
Biography
Projects
Learning
Act
ivity
reper
toireM
ental m
ap
11
Definition of a social network
The topology of a social network describes
• Which person/firm (node) is linked to which other persons/firms
• By contacts (links) of a certain quality (impedance or cost)
Closeness ~ 1/Impedance
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Travel and social networks
Maintenance of the network requires:
• Face to face contacts• Balanced by other forms of contacts
• Travel ~ Physical spread of the contacts
• Trade-off between loosing contacts and “social” capital and investing in new contacts closer to home
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Contact costs: Distance and meeting frequency
Meeting frequency
Up to more than year
Once a month
More than monthly
Once a w eek
More than w eekly
Me
dia
n d
ista
nc
e b
etw
ee
n h
om
es
50
40
30
20
10
0
Relationsship
Friend
"Kollege"
Acquaintance
Children
Parents
Siblings
Other family
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Contact frequencies: E-Mail messages to kwa
15
Hypotheses
Professionalactivity space
MigrationkMessagecosts
Numberof networks
Networkgeography
Networkoverlap
Left skew ofintensity distribution
Personal activity space
Local anomie
+-
Elasticity > 0 Elasticity < 0
+ ++
+
+
+
--
- - -
- - -
-
16
Expected impacts: Spare versus dense networks
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Expected impacts: Spare versus dense networks
Scales could be different !
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Expected impacts: Improved welfare
The social networks should be more homogeneous and therefore more productive for their members
But, the selectivity excludes the „less attractive“ persons who are disadvantaged through a reduced ability to travel or a reduced ability to participate in activities
But, the dependence on commercial or state-provided services for “care” increases
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Research issues
• Measurement of the activity spaces (geographies, markets)• Estimate of historical activity spaces ...
• Taste differences in network form and geography• Social/cultural preferences for network form and geography
• Stability of the geographies under pressure• Elasticities to policy (or environmental) change• Time until trend change
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Policy questions
• Is „happiness“ still growing ?
• How large are the social externalities ?
• How stable is the overall system under pressure ?
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The hypotheses summarized
Wages
Fleetcomfort
Housingconsumption
vtts et al.
Activities
Specialisation
k
vkm
pkmTours ++
+
++
++
++
++
+
+
-
- -
+
-Energy costs
+
+-
Elasticity > 0 Elasticity < 0
+
-
Migration+
+
Professional andpersonal activity space
NetworkgeographyNumber
of networks
Networkoverlap
Local anomie
-
+
+-
- -
--
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Literature and references
Axhausen, K.W. (2000) Geographies of somewhere: A review of urban literature, Urban Studies, 37 (10) 1849-1864.
Axhausen, K.W. (2003) Social networks and travel: Some hypotheses, Arbeitsberichte Verkehr- und Raumplanung, 197, Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Transportsysteme (IVT), ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Axhausen, K.W., S. Beige und M. Bernard (2004) Perspektiven des Schweizerischen Verkehrs bis 2030: Module M04 und M05 Besitz von Mobilitätswerkzeugen – Fahrleistungen/Betriebsleistungen und Verkehrsleistungen, Bericht an das ARE, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Axhausen, K.W. und P. Fröhlich (2004) Public investment and accessibility change, in P. Marti und A. Müller (Hrsg.) Festschrift Schalcher, vdf, Zürich.
Botte, M. (2003) Strukturen des Pendelns in der Schweiz, Diplomarbeit, Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen, TU Dresden, August 2003.
FCC (2001) Long distance telecommunication industry, FCC, Washington, D.C.Gätzi, M. (2004) Raumstruktur und Erreichbarkeit, Diplomarbeit, IVT, ETH Zürich,
Zürich.Galor, O. und D.N. Weil (2000) Population, technology, and growth: From
Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond, American Economic Review, 90 (4) 806-828.
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Literature and references
Gruber, A. (1998) Technology and Global Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Putnam, R.D. (1999) Bowling Alone: The collapse and revival of American community, Schuster and Schuster, New York.
Rhode, P.W. und K.S. Strumpf (2003) Assessing the importance of Tiebout sorting: Local heterogeneity from 1850 to 1990, American Economic Review, 93 (5) 1648-1677.
Rumley, P.A. (1984) Amenagement du territoire et utlisation du sol, Dissertation, ORL, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Siegenthaler, HJ. und H. Ritzmann-Blickenstorfer (eds.) (1996) Historische Statistik der Schweiz, Chronos, Zürich.
Srivastava G. und S. Schönfelder (2003) On the temporal variation of human activity spaces, Arbeitsberichte Verkehr- und Raumplanung, 196, Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Transportsysteme (IVT), ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Tschopp, M., R. Sieber, P. Keller und K.W. Axhausen (2003) Demographie und Raum in der Schweiz, DISP, 153, 25-32.
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Social networks: Hypotheses
[1] The size of the social network geography is inversely proportional to the generalised costs of travel and communication
[2] The number of contacts individuals maintain is inversely proportional to the generalised costs of travel and communication
[3] The probability of being linked to a member of one’s network through multiple networks increases with the spatial density of one’s contacts
[4] The distribution of effort on non-household members will become more left skewed as the spatial social network tightness decreases
[5] The knowledge about the contacts of contacts in a social network is proportional to the generalised costs of travel and communication
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Social networks: Hypotheses (2)
[6] The activity space of an individual is proportional to its social network geography
[7a] The size of the local activity space of an individual stabilises after an initial exploration.
[7b] The size of the total activity space will grow in line with the growth of social network geographies.
[8] The reliance on commercial or publicly funded personal services increases proportionally with the geography of social networks
[9] The welfare of the individuals should increase inversely proportional to the generalised costs of travel
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Share of joint travel (2003 Thurgau)
Short vacation
Excursion: nature
Other
Excursion: culture
Meeting friends
Further education (leisure)
Garden/ cottage
Voluntary work
Disco, pub, restaurant, cinema
Meeting relatives/family
Window shopping
Pick up/drop off/attendance
Group/club meeting
Family duty
Cemetery
Active sports
Education
Long-term shopping
Walk or stroll
Daily shopping
Private business
Private business (doctor,...
Work
3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0
Mean
Dog travelling along
Other persons travelling along
Household members travelling along
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Contact intensities: E-Mail messages to kwa