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Predictive Applications are going to steal your jobLars Trieloff | @trieloff @byanalytics_en
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Data-Driven Decisions in Retail
Pricing Replenishment Targeting
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Artificial Intelligence, Real Results
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Open the valves of knowledge and let wisdom flow!
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IPredictive Apps are the most powerful way to use data
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Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization
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— Abraham Maslov – probably never said this. It’s true anyway.“Data has Human Needs, too”
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Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision
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Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision
Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization
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More than half of the apps on a typical iPhone home screen are predictive applications.
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IIMachines are working faster and cheaper than humans
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Example Pricing
0
4500
9000
13500
18000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes
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Example Pricing
0
12500
25000
37500
50000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes Prices set per night
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IIIThey are not just faster and cheaper, they are also better at making decisions
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Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation
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— The Economist, May 2015
“The best chess players in the world are ‘centaurs’, amalgamated teams of humans and algorithms.”
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Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation 'Centaurs'
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— Arthur Schopenhauer
“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.”
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IVAutomation used to be a “blue collar problem”, now it is becoming a “white collar problem”
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I don’t work in an assembly line.
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And I don’t play table tennis.
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— Daniel Susskind, co-author “The Future of the Professions”
“I feel deeply uncomfortable with that, but it may be that for some tasks machines can make these decisions more effectively and efficiently”
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21% of my time is spent with communication & scheduling. No way a robot could do that.
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— Charles Duhigg, “The Power of Habit”
“More than 40 percent of the actions people performed each day aren’t actual decisions, but habits.”
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VIt’s officially time to FREAK OUT!
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Checkmate, humans!
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VIMost of our decisions are not rational
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Human Decision Making has two systems – and only one is rational.
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Not quite Almost there That’s it.
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Quick: What do you see here?
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VIIMost of our fears are not rational either
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— Daniel Kahneman
“Humans tend to infer the general from the particular but are reluctant to deduce the particular from the general.”
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VIIIExpect huge inequality in job losses
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— Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford University
“According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk [of replacement by automation]”
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— William Gibson
“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”
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IXThe boring jobs are the first to go
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No fun, lots of riskLoan officers
Receptionists
Paralegals
Retail salespeople
Taxi drivers
Security guards
Fast food cooks
Bartenders
Personal financial advisors
Reporters
0 25 50 75 100
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No fun, lots of riskKreditech
ChihiraAico
eBrevia
E-Commerce
Google Self-Driving Cars
iRobot
Momentum Machines
Monsieur
Pefin
Narrative Sciences
0 25 50 75 100
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XSome things can’t be taken away
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— Dan Pink
“People are now spending about 40 percent of their time at work engaged in persuading, influencing, and convincing others.
Across a range of professions, we are devoting roughly twenty-four minutes of every hour to moving others.”
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Strategic Impact
0
12,5
25
37,5
50
0 20 40 60 80
Revenue Only Mostly Revenue Both Mostly Profit Profit Only
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Conclusion
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Predictive Applications are already here …
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They will change the way we work
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And let us do what we can do best: be human.
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Lars Trieloff @trieloff