Transcript
Page 1: Predicting Winter Precipitation

Predicting Winter Precipitation

By: Tony Cummings

Page 2: Predicting Winter Precipitation

Problem

• Winter precipitation is major issue

• Georgia is not as prepared

• Seasonal forecast would be helpful

• Already forecast seasonal temperatures

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Data

• Same data as undergraduate research

• KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007

• ASOS data

• Used Matlab script to decode

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Methodology

• Decode Data• Analyze data

– Linear Correlations [corr()]

– Periodograms [periodogram()]

– Cross spectral Analysis• cspd()• mscohere()• angle() .

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Correlations

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Periodograms

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Zoomed Periodograms

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Cross Spectral Analysis

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Phase angle

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Conclusions

• Temps and Hours of precipitation are statistically correlated

• Strong 6 year precipitation cycle

• Cross Spectral Analysis results mixed

• Precipitation predictions similar to temperature predictions


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