Download - Predicting Winter Precipitation
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![Page 1: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predicting Winter Precipitation
By: Tony Cummings
![Page 2: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Problem
• Winter precipitation is major issue
• Georgia is not as prepared
• Seasonal forecast would be helpful
• Already forecast seasonal temperatures
![Page 3: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Data
• Same data as undergraduate research
• KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007
• ASOS data
• Used Matlab script to decode
![Page 4: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Methodology
• Decode Data• Analyze data
– Linear Correlations [corr()]
– Periodograms [periodogram()]
– Cross spectral Analysis• cspd()• mscohere()• angle() .
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Correlations
![Page 6: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Periodograms
![Page 7: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Zoomed Periodograms
![Page 8: Predicting Winter Precipitation](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081516/5681407e550346895dac0204/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Cross Spectral Analysis
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Phase angle
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Conclusions
• Temps and Hours of precipitation are statistically correlated
• Strong 6 year precipitation cycle
• Cross Spectral Analysis results mixed
• Precipitation predictions similar to temperature predictions