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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
O AJUSTE ECONÔMICO: 2016/2018
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2006 a 2012- A formação da Bolha de consumo
2006 a 2011 ciclo da commodities
2012 a 2014 estímulos ao consumo2015 a 2016 estouro da Bolha
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THE BUBBLE BURST PATERNUSA Economy 2008 a 2012
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
THE BUBLE BURST PATERNUSA Economy 2008 a 2012
US: GDP yearly growth
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THE BUBBLE BURST PATERNUSA Economy 2008 a 2012
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1,1%
1,4%
2,2%
1,6%
2,2%
2,0%
2,5% 2,5%
2,7%
3,0%2,9%
3,0%
3,2% 3,2% 3,1% 3,1%
2,9%
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
2,00%
2,50%
3,00%
3,50%
4,00%
2000 2001 2002 2003/T4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Brazilian GDP - Accumulated Average Growth Rate2.000 a 2.016
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
100
104102
104
109 108
114 115
122125
131
139 140
148
156
160
164
167 167
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PIB moeda constante
taxa geometrica crescimento no period1996 a 2014
Crescimento médio entre 1996 e 2002
Crescimento médio entre 2003 e 2014
3,2%
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-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
19
96
Q1
19
96
Q4
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q2
19
99
Q1
19
99
Q4
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q1
20
02
Q4
20
03
Q3
20
04
Q2
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q3
20
07
Q2
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q2
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q2
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q3
Absorção doméstica
Setor Externo
Desempenho atual da absorção doméstica já é o pior da série histórica
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38
54 57
44
55 52 47
59 65 63 65
79 76 72
96
118
104
178
192
155
171
157
8590 96
111
127
146
168
194
213219
226
-
50
100
150
200
250
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mercado Brasileiro de Caminhões >2,8 TON1993 - 2025
FINAME
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
2.551 2.5301.683 1.633
3.134 3.089 3.153
6.625 6.557
3.4712.522
-1.567
-3.928-3.045
-3.762-3.416-3.431
-1.383
7791.590
3.121
7.004
10.179
13.725
19.672
23.769
-10.000
-5.000
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
saldo balança commercialAcumulado 12 meses
Em milhões de reais
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130.000
150.000
170.000
190.000
210.000
230.000
250.000
exp e impacumulado 12 meses
Série1 Série2
em milhoes de reais
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70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
14019
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15
Termos de Troca e Média 1992/2014Base 2006=100 - Ajustado Sazonalmente
Fonte: Funcex e Quest Investimentos.
Média 1992-2014
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ExportaçãoImportaçãoBase
Preços do Comércio ExteriorEm US$ - Base 2006 = 100
Fonte: Funcex e Quest Investimentos
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-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exportações Líquidas - % do PIB
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
DÉFICIT EM TRANSAÇÕES CORRENTES
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-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ProxyProxy - trendPIB
Vazamento Externo (Quantum Exportado - Importado - Conceito PIB)Contribuição Interano
VAZAMENTO EXTERNO
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
TotalBásicos (48% do total)Manufaturados (38% do total)Semimanufaturados (14% do total)
Quantum Exportado - Grupos - Índice Base 2006=100 (trend)
Fonte: Funcex e AZ Quest.
QUANTUM EXPORTADO
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EXPORTAÇÕES DE PRODUTOS BÁSICOS
50
100
150
200
250
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
PreçoQuantum
Exportações de produtos básicosBase 2006 = 100 (dessaz.)
Fonte: Funcex e Quest Investimentos.
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80
100
120
140
160
180
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Quantum de ImportaçõesBase 2006=100
Fonte: Funcex e Quest Investimentos.
QUANTUM DE IMPORTAÇÕES
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
40
60
80
100
120
40
60
80
100
120
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
TotalEx-Autos e Material de Construção
Varejo - Faturamento realÍndice 2003=100
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
COMÉRCIO
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90,00
110,00
130,00
150,00
170,00
190,00
210,00
230,00
250,00
270,00
290,00m
ar/0
3
ago
/03
jan
/04
jun
/04
no
v/0
4
abr/
05
set/
05
fev/
06
jul/
06
dez
/06
mai
/07
ou
t/0
7
mar
/08
ago
/08
jan
/09
jun
/09
no
v/0
9
abr/
10
set/
10
fev/
11
jul/
11
dez
/11
mai
/12
ou
t/1
2
mar
/13
ago
/13
jan
/14
jun
/14
no
v/1
4
abr/
15
Crédito
Renda
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Fenabrave - Vendas de AutoveículosEm 1000 unidades mensais(números ajustados sazonalmente)
Fonte: Fenabrave e Quest Investimentos.
VENDAS DE VEÍCULOS
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
PMI INDUSTRIA
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1.700
1.800
1.900
2.000
2.100
2.200
2.300
1.700
1.800
1.900
2.000
2.100
2.200
2.3000
2
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Salários Reais MetropolitanosEm R$ a preços do último mês*
(*) Deflator INPC.
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
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110
120
130
140
150
160
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14
Indústria - Custo Unitário do Trabalho Industrial(Remuneração Horária / Produção Horária)Índice
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
INDÚSTRIA – CUSTO UNITÁRIO DO TRABALHO
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CAGED - Acum. 12m - MM Criação líquida de vagas formais
Fonte: MTb e Quest Investimentos.
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-100
0
100
200
-100
0
100
200
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CAGED - Total - Em milharesAjustado Sazonalmente
Fonte: Min. Trabalho e Quest Investimentos.
CRIAÇÃO DE EMPREGO FORMAL
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
6%
8%
10%
12%
6%
8%
10%
12%
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
DessazonalizadoTendência
Taxa de Desemprego MetropolitanoAjustes Quest Investimentos
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
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100
110
120
130
140
100
110
120
130
140
Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14
Indústria - Folha de Pagamento Real TotalÍndice Base 2002 = 100
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
110
120
130
140
150
160
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14
Indústria - Custo Unitário do Trabalho Industrial(Remuneração Horária / Produção Horária)Índice
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
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80
85
90
95
100
80
85
90
95
100
Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14
Setor industrial - Índice de produtividade(produto / hora trabalhada)Índice
Fonte: IBGE e Quest Investimentos.
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MERCADO DE CREDITO
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
10
20
30
40
50
10
20
30
40
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exclusive Crédito ImobiliárioCrédito Imobiliário
Fonte: BCB e Quest Investimentos.
Endividamento das Famílias (% da renda anual)
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SALDO DE CRÉDITO DO SISTEMA FINANCEIRO NACIONAL - % YOY
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28,0
33,0
38,0
43,0
48,0
53,0
58,0
mar
/07
set/
07
mar
/08
set/
08
mar
/09
set/
09
mar
/10
set/
10
mar
/11
set/
11
mar
/12
set/
12
mar
/13
set/
13
mar
/14
set/
14
mar
/15
set/
15
Crédito SFN/PIB (%)
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O ajuste econômico: 2016/2018
10,7
9,5
8,3
7,8
6,9
5,40
6,40
7,40
8,40
9,40
10,40
11,40
jan
/13
mar
/13
mai
/13
jul/
13
set/
13
no
v/13
jan
/14
mar
/14
mai
/14
jul/
14
set/
14
no
v/14
jan
/15
mar
/15
mai
/15
jul/
15
set/
15
no
v/15
jan
/16
mar
/16
mai
/16
jul/
16
set/
16
no
v/16
IPCA em doze meses
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