Download - Potential analysis fro Micro- CHP
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Potential analysis micro-CHP in Europe
Jeroen Larrivee – Energy Matters (NL)
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Micro-CHP for European prosumers
Task description
WP2, D2.5:
• European report on potential of micro-CHP in EU27
• Micro-CHP = CHP < 50 kWe
• Tasks
– Analyse national CHP potential reports for micro-CHP.
– Combine with data on boiler replacement in built housing stock to 2030.
– Propose a development route for micro-CHP per MS.
– Produce one page potentials summaries per MS
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Most effective single measure for CO2 reduction!
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Unique fit for existing buildings
Low temperature
space heating
High temperature
space heating
Domestic hot water
Fit with existing infrastructure
Boiler v v v v
GSHP/ASHP v x v** x
Hybrid HP v x v* v
Solar heat x x v** x
micro-CHP v v V* v
* Auxiliary boiler needed* Auxiliary boiler + thermal storage needed
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Main types of micro-CHP
> 1000 units EU>100,000 units (JPN)
>1,000 units EU
> 100.000 units EU>120,000 units (JPN)
Source: Delta-EE, 2013
Source: the Renewable energy hub
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Great potential micro-CHP due to large boiler market!
EU boiler market:> 100.000.000 boilers> 8.000.000 annual salesShift towards low carbon tech expected
Potential market:• For Households (± 1 kWe):
– Boiler replacement technology– Add-on concepts are being developed
• For SME & collective systems (1-50 kWe): – Add-on technology (to existing boiler)
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Potential market per MS determined
• Huge market to be conquered! – Question is when and how fast…
• Potential market estimated per MS – Boiler market starting point– Potential estimated by scorecard:
• Technical market alternatives• Cost benefit analysis• Legislation• Awareness• Purchasing power
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Example: UK market for domestic micro-CHP
• Micro-CHP in 2030: 0,8 million units per year• Support programs exist, i.e. feed-in tariff and
lease concepts• S-curve market diffusion assumed
Population: 62 millionBoiler sales: 2 million per year
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The EU market – Western Europe most promising
• Annual sales up to 3 million per year in 2030• Market share average 7% in 2030• Enablers:
– Gas infrastructure– Size of the boiler market– Incentive programs– Competing technologies
Adapted from: Delta-EE, 2014
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Main barrier for market deployment
• Can m-CHP become costcompetitive, i.e. retail €4,000,- per kWe?– Yes!
– Learning rate of 15% alreadywitnessed in Japan
– Extrapolating: EU cost-competitive in 2025
- Industry has to make some bold moves and needs encouragement!
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Challenges
• Expending production facilities without proper market demand
• Building up supply chains
• How to reach the customers? Why would consumers turn intoprosumers?
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Reflection of potential?
• Potentially, micro-CHP may contribute approx. 35% of boiler stock in 2030!
– Multi million annual sales potential
• But micro-CHP is facing two paths
microCHP developsfurther as a niche
product
microCHP becomes the de facto standard in
existing buildings
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How to jumpstart the market?
- Industry has to make bold moves- Cost reduction through upscaling and learning- Innovation- Building up supply chains- Reaching potential customers (direct of indirect)
- Policy support is needed- Stress environmental benefits - Support program needed to reach acceptable costs- Expansion of technology specific support such as Ene.field
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Thank you for your attention
More information: http://www.code2-project.eu/