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Amanda Robertson
Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative
907-446-0465
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Institute of Arctic Biology
Population-level differences in adaptive capacity to climate change in a boreal forest
tree, Populus balsamifera L.
8:43 AM 1
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Assisted migration
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Transferring populations beyond current species’ range limits Often used for threated species
Transferring individuals among populations within the species’ range limit Can increase the adaptive capacity of a species Less controversial
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Local adaptation
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Within a single species, adaptive capacity can vary due to: Evolutionary history Different selection pressures in different parts of species’ range
Local adaptation – populations are locally adapted when
populations have the highest relative fitness at their home sites, and lower fitness in other parts of their range (Savolainen et al 2007)
Local adaptation can result from: Gradients in environment and selection Limited geneflow
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Local adaptation in boreal forest trees
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Well-known adaptive cline with latitude Result of local adaptation to climate and photoperiod
gradients Photoperiod cues inform the trees when to start growing, when
to set bud, flower, etc.
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Impacts of local adaptation on adaptive capacity
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Assuming environment is relatively constant, local adaptation is beneficial
In a changing climate, some populations of a locally-adapted species may react differently than others
Population-level differences in adaptive capacity Differences in: Genetic diversity Phenotypic plasticity Physiological tolerances
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Boreal forest – impacts of climate change
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Northward expansion of species range limits Treeline advance Distribution shifts
(McKenney et al. 2011)
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Local adaptation, plasticity, and migration
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Long growing season, warm adapted
Lati
tude
Short growing season/investment in cold tolerance traits
1. Genotypic variation across a species’ range (local adaptation)
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8:43 AM 8
Long growing season, warm adapted
Lati
tude
Short growing season/investment in cold tolerance traits
Genetics, plasticity, and migration
1. Genotypic variation across a species’ range (local adaptation)
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Genetics, plasticity, and migration
8:43 AM 9
Long growing season, warm adapted
Lati
tude
Short growing season/investment in cold tolerance traits
1. Genotypic variation across a species’ range (local adaptation)
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8:43 AM 10
Long growing season, warm adapted
Lati
tude
Short growing season/investment in cold tolerance traits
1. Genotypic variation across a species’ range (local adaptation)
Genetics, plasticity, and migration
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Genetics, plasticity, and migration
8:43 AM 11
Lati
tude
1. Genotypic variation across a species’ range (local adaptation)
May be limited in response to increased temperatures
Mig
rati
on
Southern genotypes may migrate northward
2.Genotype can determine amplitude of plasticity
3. Local adaptation can determine responses to climate change
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Research question
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Does adaptation to local environments affect species’ intrinsic adaptive capacity to respond to climate change (temperature and growing season length increase?
Genetic differences: Do populations from the north and south differ in their potential
growth in a northern environment?
Plastic responses: Is there a phenotypic response to warming (acclimation)?
Genotype x plasticity: Do genotypes from the north and south of a species’ range
respond differently to increased temperatures?
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Research approach
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To test for affects of local adaptation on the acclimation and migration potential of boreal forest tree species Compare growth and plasticity of different genotypes
growing in the same environment (genetic differences) Grow same genotypes in two environments (plasticity) Compare genetic diversity across latitude
Important to have samples from large gradients in
species range to capture the majority of genetic and plastic variation
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Artificial warming experiments Experiment 1
Common garden Experiment 2
Growth chambers
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Artificial warming experiments
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Common garden ‘Natural setting’
Test effects of warming throughout growing season Photoperiod
Passive warming Variable
magnitude/consistency of warming treatment
Cannot control all environmental variation
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Artificial warming experiments
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Growth chambers Focuses only on
temperature differences
Can control for: Soil characteristics Nutrients Water Light Humidity
Unnatural environment
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Warming effect
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Average warming = 3 °C Diurnal warming = 3.42 °C Nocturnal warming = 2.51°C
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Populus balsamifera L. (balsam poplar) Latitudinal sampling 50-70 °N
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Warming treatments test for plasticity Latitudinal sampling tests for genetic differences
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Effects of warming and source latitude on:
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Growth Height Diameter Leaves Lateral buds
Phenology Bud flush Bud set
Cold injury & cold tolerance
Leaf physiology/morphology Photosynthesis Foliar Nitrogen Stomatal Density
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Adaptive capacity is higher than expected in northern populations
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Northern populations have higher plasticity than predicted
Phenological traits (e.g., bud set) is influenced by temperature Contrasts widely-held view
that bud set is determined by genetics only in poplar
Northern genotypes have lower genetic diversity (Olson et al 2013)
50 55 60 65 70
180
200
220
240
Latitude
SD
Set
day
Latitude (°N)
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21
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22
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Southern populations have highest growth rates in northern environment
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Genotypes from southern populations grew consistently larger than northern genotypes
But southern genotypes also had highest incidence of cold injury
2010
50 55 60 65 70
1020
3040
5060
Latitude
H
2011
50 55 60 65 70
010
2030
4050
60
Latitude
HR
elat
ive
heig
ht g
row
th (c
m)
Latitude (°N) Latitude (°N)
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8:43 AM 24
Fairbanks control (open triangle)
Fairbanks warmed (closed triangle) Fairbanks
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Southern populations have highest growth rates in northern environment
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In growth chamber (absence of seasons), southern genotypes had competitive advantage in both control and warmed conditions
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Adaptational Lag
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Local genotypes of balsam poplar (trees originally collected from Fairbanks source populations) were not the best performers at either ambient or warmed conditions, when planted in Fairbanks, Alaska.
This may be evidence of an adaptational lag in response to the recent 1.4 °C warming nearly 50 % increase in the growing season length (Wendler and Shulski 2009) documented for the region.
This adaptation lag was increased when the cuttings were experimentally warmed, suggesting that local trees may continue to decline with future warming.
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Adaptational Lag
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Overall, the best-performing genotypes were those collected from 5-10 ° south of Fairbanks (Robertson 2012, Robertson et al., in review).
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Choosing best genotypes for Region III
• Genetic clines (e.g., bud set and height growth) are plotted against mean annual temperature of source environments.
• Can model the severity of the expected adaptational lag given that degree of warming.
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Figure 5.1 Genetic clines along gradients in mean annual temperature for mean calendar date of bud set (a), and for total height growth (b). The horizontal arrow illustrates the degree of experimental warming (3 °C/5.4 °F) and the vertical arrow represents the predicted adaptational lag for that amount of warming. Data are from Chapter 4; figure is adapted from Aitken et al. (2008).
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Questions?
8:43 AM 30
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Quantifying intrinsic adaptive capacity of balsam poplar:
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Genetic diversity & geneflow Genome-level nucleotide diversity and linkage disequilibrium to
estimate effective population size
Degree of local adaptation Compare differences among populations to within populations Phenotypic, physiological, epigenetic, functional genes
Acclimation potential Plasticity in a warmed environment Phenotypic, physiological, epigenetic, gene expression*
Migration capacity Colonization success in a northern environment