Policy Analysis
CambodiaBayesiaNetworks
<basics>
who?
Mario Guajardo
Yai Oladokun Laleye
not really…
based on: Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A
Bayesian Network Model Approach
Authors: Olli Varis & Marko Keskinen
Helsinki University of Technology
(aka Findland’s MIT)
where?
what?
Tonlé Sap lake
lake = golden egg hen
why?
lake fishing = over 50% of GDP
largest freshwater lake
in South East Asia
lake water for 55 million
lake wetlands = rice
goal
lake waters should be used to
provide economic well-being to
the people, without
compromising social equity and
environmental sustainability
(balance)
solution
policy
challenge
finding
a balanced policy
a balanced policy to
maximize win-win between
competing stakeholders
social
social
economic
social
economic
environmental
<model>
approach
bayesian network
why?
complex interconnections
how?
model architecture
scenarios
impact
tendencieslink
matrix
under the hood
environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
environmentfloods
droughts
toxic spillage
oil spillage
soil degradation
biodiversity decline
suspended soil
sedimentation
environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
societyfood security
human development
empowerment
gender equity
social cohesion
formal governance
rural push
urban pull
environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
environment
society
sector policies
natural
resources
economy
goals
environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
<experiments>
four scenarios
favors economic growth
favors
environmental sustainability
favors poverty reduction
integrated scenario
<results>
favors economic growth
but with high degree
of uncertainty
favors environmental
sustainability
but ignores villages
and their development
favors social impact
gives fairly good results
integrated scenario
gave best results
<conclusion>
many scenarios created
gave insight to policy makers
model found balanced policy
it is now up to Cambodia to implement it…