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PNC Infratech

INDUSTRY CMP Recommend Add on Dips to

Sequential Targets

Time Horizon

DATE 11 Jun 2018

Infrastructure Rs 172.4

Buy at CMP

and add on

declines

Rs.172-150 Rs.250 5-6

Quarters

Proven Track Record Of Timely Execution Robust Order Book

Govt.’s Push For Infra Development Healthy Balance Sheet

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HDFC Scrip Code PNCINF

BSE Code 539150

NSE Code PNCINFRA

Bloomberg PNCL IN

CMP June 08, 2018 172.4

Equity Capital (Cr) 51.3

Face Value (Rs) 2

Equity Share O/S( Cr ) 25.65

Market Cap(Rs Cr ) 4,464

Book Value (Rs) 69.8

Avg.52 Wk Volume 326586

52 Week High 228

52 Week Low 130

Red Flag Price Level # 130

PCG Risk Rating* Yellow

Shareholding Pattern % (Mar 31, 18)

Promoters 56.0

Institutions 27.4

Non Institutions 16.6

Total 100

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST

Nisha Sankhala

[email protected]

Company Profile:

Incorporated in 1999, PNC Infratech (PNC) is a north based Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC)

player, with expertise in the execution of projects such as highways, bridges, flyovers, airport runways,

industrial areas and transmission lines. The company has executed 59 major infrastructure projects spread

across 13 states, of which 38 are road EPC projects. The Company is currently executing 19 projects. In

2007, PNC has entered the Build, Operate & Transfer (BOT) segment, which contributes to the revenue via

Toll collection. Currently, the company is operating six BOT projects and one OMT (Operate, Maintain and

Transfer) project, comprising of both Toll & Annuity assets plus five HAM projects.

Investment rationale:

Robust order book ensures strong earnings visibility

Strong in-house execution capabilities and excellent track record of early completion with a

large & modern equipment bank

Huge Infra development spending provides immense order inflow visibility

Fully Funded & strong BOT portfolio

BOT monetisation to aid HAM project’s equity requirement

Concerns:

Current order book ensures revenue visibility for the next 2-3 years, but any delay in execution can

prove to be a big negative for the Company.

Adverse weather conditions can impact execution of the projects.

The company’s order book is regionally concentrated, primarily in North and Central India.

Any slowdown in the awarding of projects by the state Governments.

View and valuation:

We have derived SOTP based target of Rs 248. We value the (1) Standalone EPC business at Rs 192 (10x

one‐year forward Mar‐20E EBIDTA), (2) BOT projects at Rs 33/share, and (3) HAM FY18-20E cumulative

equity investment at Rs 23/sh.

We recommend PNC Infratech as BUY at a CMP of Rs. 172 add on a decline of Rs 150 or the Target Price of

Rs. 250 in a time frame of 5-6 Quarters.

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Year Ending March (Rs mn) 4QFY18 4QFY17 YoY (%) 3QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Sales 6,989 3,506 99.4 4,725 47.9 16,891 17,966 28,369 38,333

EBITDA 1,009 474 112.8 663 52.2 2,210 2,588 3,983 5,360

APAT 1,115 337 230.6 432 158 1,169 1,054 2,221 2,705

Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.3 1.3 230.6 1.7 158 4.6 4.1 8.7 10.5

P/E (x) 36.9 40.9 19.4 15.9

EV / EBITDA (x) 20.1 16.7 11.8 9

RoE (%) 7.9 6.2 11.6 12.7

Key Highlights

PNC Infratech is a north-based infra company, with expertise in execution of projects including highways, bridges, flyovers, airport runways, industrial areas and transmission lines.

The Current Order Book is at a robust

level and this ensures good earnings visibility for next 2-3 years.

Strong in-house execution capabilities and an excellent track record of early completion, with a large & modern equipment bank.

Huge Infra development spending provides immense order inflow visibility.

BOT portfolio is fully funded, and the company is looking to monetise it and use those funds for HAM equity requirements.

We recommend PNC Infratech as BUY at CMP of Rs.172 and add on decline of Rs. 150 for the Target Price of Rs. 250 in the time frame of 5-6 quarters.

(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)

Investment rationale:

Robust order book ensures strong revenue visibility

The Company has an order book of Rs. 73bn as of Mar18. This provides revenue visibility for the next 5-

6 Years.

The Company’s revenue performance was impacted in the last five quarters, as orders worth Rs. 30bn

were delayed or owing to land acquisition issues. However, the situation has improved in the recent past,

and we believe, that the company is expected to experience strong growth momentum from Q4FY18.

The management has guided an order inflow of Rs. 60-70bn in FY19, of which PNC Infra has already won

two EPC and one HAM projects worth of Rs. 49.9 bn in May-18.

Strong in-house execution capabilities and excellent track record of early completion with a

large & modern equipment bank

In-house design, engineering, construction, operation and management teams control the entire process

from the procurement of raw materials to completion of the projects. PNC Infra also owns a large fleet of

sophisticated equipment. This helps the company offer customised solutions to clients, reducing reliance

on third parties, which in turn helps in reducing costs.

With an in-house state-of-the-art equipment bank and a highly-qualified management team, the company

has a proven track record in the execution of large projects in sectors like roads & highways, bridges and

airport runways. It has also received bonuses many times for early completion of projects.

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BOT Valuation

Project PNCL Stake (%)

WACC (%)

PNCL Equity Invested (Rs mn)

Project Value

(Rs mn) NPV (PNCL Share) Rs mn

Per share value (Rs/sh)

Implied P/B (x)

Bareilly-Almora-Bagheshwar 100 13.5 750 567 567 2.2 0.8 Kanpur-Kabrai 100 13.5 675 3,038 3,038 11.8 4.5 Gwalior Bhind 100 13.5 780 1,728 1,728 6.7 2.2 Aligarh-Ghaziabad 35 13.5 1,860 (1,796) (629) (2.5) (0.3) Raibareilly - Jaunpur 100 13.5 1,395 768 768 3.0 0.6 Narela Industrial Estate 100 13.5 350 971 971 3.8 2.8 Kanpur-Ayodhya 100 13.5 - 2,131 2,131 8.3 - Total 5,810 7,407 8,574 33.4 1.5

Large scale infra development spending provides immense order inflow visibility

One key focus area of the Government is Infrastructure development in the country. Since the last 2-3 years, the complete land-scape of the

infrastructure companies has changed. In FY18, NHAI has awarded 150 road projects of 7,400 km worth Rs 1.2 trn. In the last 5 years, the

average length of road projects awarded by NHAI was 2,860 km, with 4,335 km awarded in the previous financial year. We are expecting a very

good run rate for the same next year too, as the Government has planned an outlay Rs. 1.21 trn for the road sector in the Budget for FY19.

Additionally Rs 71,000 Cr is allocated specially for development of national highways across the country.

This opens up vast opportunities for companies with clean balance sheets, the ability to raise funds and good execution capabilities.

Fully funded & strong BOT portfolio

PNC Infra has seven projects in its BOT portfolio, including one OMT project comprising both toll and annuity assets. Out of seven projects, six

are fully operational, while one is partly operational. Overall, PNC has infused equity worth Rs. 581cr in its BOT projects, and has been completely

funded.

The Aligarh‐Ghaziabad project has been one of the key pain points in PNC’s BOT portfolio. The toll collection has improved to Rs 510 mn in 4QFY18

(flat QoQ). This translates into a Rs 56 mn /day run rate which had earlier declined to Rs 48 mn after the overloading ban.

Raebareli‐Jaunpur annuity project: PNC received the COD (Commercial Operations Date) for the Raebareli‐Jaunpur BOT project on on March 8,

2016. The project has achieved COD three months ahead of the June‐16 deadline. Recently, the management has stated that the company has

received a bonus of Rs. 34cr for early completion of this project.

There have been better than expected toll collections in the Kanpur Ayodhya, Gwalior Bhind, Kanpur Kabrai and Aligarh Ghaziabad projects. We

have valued PNC’s BOT portfolio at Rs 33.4/sh (1.5x P/BV).

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SOTP Valuation:

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Segment Mar‐20E EBIDTA Multiple

Valuation (Rs mn)

Value per Share (Rs) Valuation Methodology

Standalone EPC 5,360 10 49,840 194 FY20E EV/EBIDTA BOT Portfolio 8,574 33 FCFE Mar-20E

HAM Equity 5,800 23 1x P/BV cumulative equity investment over FY18-20E

SOTP Value 64,214 250

BOT monetisation to aid HAM projects’ equity requirements

PNC Infra has a total of five HAM projects, of which 4 have already achieved financial closure. PNC’s HAM equity requirement is Rs 740cr, which can

be met from the monetisation of the operational BOT portfolio. Total equity invested in operational assets is Rs 580cr.

We have valued PNC’s toll projects using a 13.5% discount rate for arriving at the NPV of the projects. We have valued the BOT business at Rs 33/sh

(1.5x of PNC’s invested equity), and HAM projects at 1x P/BV of cumulative equity investment over FY18‐20E and arrive at a per share value of Rs.

23.

SOTP Valuation:

We value PNC on 10x one-year forward EV/EBIDTA in line with the implied 10x multiple for peers. Our rationales include (1) A robust order book of

Rs 1067 bn, (2) A strong balance sheet, and (3) A high share of NHAI EPC/HAM roads in the order book will result in a lower working capital demand,

as these projects have provisions of mobilisation advances.

A higher than estimated order intake may result in further stock re-rating as PNC has (1) A diversified presence in roads and dedicated freight corridor,

and a key beneficiary of the upcoming roads awards in UP worth Rs 2 trn over the next 4-5 years, (2) A strong execution capability, which provides

scope for earning early completion bonuses (3-6% of project cost), leading to EBIDTA margin expansion, (3) Support likely from the captive order

book in lieu of any contraction in future roads EPC orders, and (4) PNC is looking to monetize current BOT portfolio (Rs 5.8bn of invested equity) this

may part fund Rs 740cr of HAM equity requirement

We have arrived SOTP Target of Rs 250 for PNC Infratech. We value the (1) Standalone EPC business at Rs 194 (10x one‐year forward Mar‐20E

EBIDTA), (2) BOT projects at Rs 33, and (3) HAM FY18-20E cumulative equity investment at Rs 23.

We recommend PNC Infratech as BUY at a CMP of Rs. 172 add on a decline of Rs 150 or the Target Price of Rs. 250 in a time frame of 5-6 Quarters.

In Jan-17, we had recommended PNC Infra BUY in the range of Rs. 106-94 for the Target of Rs. 126 which was achieved on 3rd April 2017.

(https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.research.pdf/HSL%20PCG%20PNC%20Infratech%20Ltd.%20Jan%202017_20170113183036.pdf)

https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.research.pdf/HSL%20PCG%20PNC%20Infratech%20Ltd.%20Jan%202017_20170113183036.pdf

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Order Book To Multiply 1.3x Over FY18‐20E


EBIDTA Margins To Remains Stable At ~ 14%


Expect FY20E Net D/E Ratio Of 0.2x


Expect FY20E NWC Cycle Of 80 days


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Income Statement (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Net Revenues 20,142 16,891 17,966 28,369 38,333

Growth (%) 29 -16.1 6.4 57.9 35.1

Material Expenses 9,140 8,416 12,242 19,868 27,025

Employee Expenses 836 1,003 1,240 1,653 2,000

Other Operating Expenses 7,506 5,261 1,896 2,865 3,948

EBITDA 2,660 2,210 2,588 3,983 5,360

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.2 13.1 14.4 14 14

EBITDA Growth (%) 22.8 -16.9 17.1 53.9 34.6

Depreciation 570 533 772 898 1,010

EBIT 2,089 1,677 1,816 3,086 4,351

Other Income (Including EO Items) 253 466 830 564 246

Interest 399 203 307 431 676

PBT 1,943 1,939 2,339 3,218 3,920

Tax (incl. Deferred) -402 -158 -171 579 1,215

RPAT 2,345 2,097 2,510 2,639 2,705

EO Items (incl. MAT savings) -810 -927 -1,457 -418 -

APAT 1,535 1,169 1,054 2,221 2,705

APAT Growth (%) 60.9 -23.9 -9.9 110.7 21.8

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 6 4.6 4.1 8.7 10.54


Balance Sheet (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 513 513 513 513 513

Reserves 13,271 15,209 17,554 19,710 21,932

Total Shareholders Funds 13,784 15,722 18,067 20,223 22,445

Long Term Debt 60 576 1,286 794 794

Short Term Debt 59 1,115 414 3,286 4,786

Total Debt 119 1,691 1,700 4,080 5,580

Net Deferred Taxes -30 -23 -20 -23 -23

Long Term Provisions & Others 1,596 1,675 1,699 1,515 1,441

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 15,469 19,065 21,445 25,795 29,443

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 2,125 3,479 4,064 3,959 4,149

CWIP 19 78 111 111 111

Investments 4,644 4,676 4,948 7,476 10,476

Other Non-current Assets 2,397 4,297 4,663 5,860 5,953

Total Non-current Assets 9,185 12,530 13,786 17,406 20,690

Inventories 2,364 1,535 1,758 2,720 3,676

Debtors 3,763 6,309 6,900 8,938 10,502

Other Current Assets 2,589 3,187 3,927 4,730 5,906

Cash & Equivalents 971 355 1,473 317 432

Total Current Assets 9,686 11,385 14,057 16,706 20,516

Creditors 942 2,369 4,628 4,275 6,301

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 2,460 2,480 1,771 4,042 5,461

Total Current Liabilities 3,402 4,849 6,399 8,317 11,762

Net Current Assets 6,284 6,536 7,658 8,389 8,754

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 15,469 19,065 21,445 25,795 29,443


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Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Reported PBT 2,004 1,939 2,339 3,218 3,920

Non-operating & EO items -100 26 -830 -564 -246

Interest expenses 249 -150 307 431 430

Depreciation 525 533 772 898 1,010

Working Capital Change -1,467 -2,599 -345 -3,270 -416

Tax Paid - 164 171 -579 -1,215

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1,210 -86 2,414 134 3,483

Capex -394 -1,895 -1,390 -793 -1,200

Free cash flow (FCF) 817 -1,981 1,024 -658 2,283

Investments -325 268 -272 -2,528 -3,000

Non operating income - - 830 564 246

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -719 -1,627 -832 -2,756 -3,954

Debt Issuance/(Repaid)/ -3,411 1,411 9 2,380 1,500

Interest Expenses -332 -153 -307 -431 -430

FCFE -2,927 -722 726 1,291 3,353

Share Capital Issuance 4,172 - - 0 0

Dividend -161 -161 -166 -482 -483

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 267 1,097 -465 1,467 587

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 759 -616 1,117 -1,155 116

Closing Cash & Equivalents 971 355 1,472 317 433


Key Ratios FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 54.6 50.2 31.9 30 29.5

EBITDA Margin 13.2 13.1 14.4 14 14

APAT Margin 7.6 6.9 5.9 7.8 7.1

RoE 14.6 7.9 6.2 11.6 12.7

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 25.6 12.9 13 14.1 16.2

RoCE 19.7 13.4 14 12.7 11.5

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) -20.7 -8.1 -7.3 18 31

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.7 2.8 2.4 3.5 4.1

Inventory (days) 43 33 36 35 35

Debtors (days) 68 136 140 115 100

Payables (days) 17 51 94 55 60

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 96 134 126 104 79

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0 0.8 0.7 1 1

Net D/E (x) -0.06 0.09 0 0.2 0.2

Interest Coverage (x) 5.2 8.3 5.9 7.2 6.4

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 6 4.6 4.1 8.7 10.5

CEPS 11.4 10.3 12.8 13.8 14.5

Dividend 2.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Book Value 53.7 61.3 70.4 78.8 87.5

VALUATION

P/E (x) 32.1 41.8 46.9 22.1 18.3

P/BV (x) 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 20.1 16.7 11.8 9

EV/Revenues (x) 2.1 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.3

Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8


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Rating Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR

MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS






FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR

MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS







OR MORE

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# Explanation of Red-flag Price level: If stock prices starts sustaining below red-flag level, the premise of the investment needs to be reviewed. Risk

averse investors should exit the stock and preserve capital. The downside of following red-flag level is that if the price decline turns out to be

temporary and if it recovers subsequently you won’t be able to participate in the gains.

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Close Price

Date Reco Rs. Target Rs.

13-Jan-17 106-94 126

08-June-18 172-150 250

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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Fundamental Research Analyst: Nisha Sankhala ([email protected] ) HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: [email protected]. Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600

Disclosure: I, (Nisha Sankhala, MBA), authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock – No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments. HSL and its affiliated company (ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company (ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.

HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

This report is intended for non-Institutional Clients only. The views and opinions expressed in this report may at times be contrary to or not in consonance with those of Institutional Research or PCG Research teams of HDFC Securities Ltd. and/or may have different time horizons

HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193

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