Download - Plenary World at a Crossroads TPSA
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European Forum for New Ideas
OPENING REPORT
Plenary session: World at a Crossroads
SESION DATE: 30 September 2011, 16:00 – 18:00
AUTHOR OF THE REPORT: Maciej Kuźmicz
MAIN TOPICS
We believe the world is driven by megatrends today as opposed to geography until
early 20th century. Hence, we ask the panellists to map contemporary global
challenges with four new poles that set a specific direction for the world. We ask
each panellist to characterise one of the poles, assess the intensity of the selected
phenomenon and place it in the political and economic context. Questions: Why is
the phenomenon important and how does it change the socio-economic context and
the vector of world? Which development has had the biggest impact and which is
going to change the world’s direction at a crossroads? Where is the centre of the
world today and where are its peripheries?
The expected outcome of the debate should be recommendations for countries and
businesses. Given that the world and Europe are at a crossroads today, what
measures should be adopted by both businesses and public institutions? What
recommendations can be formulated? What business and policy decisions can be
effective at the crossroads? What are the limitations on specific recommendations?
Three recommendations for Europe and three developmental inspirations: How
can Europe find its place in the new world?
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DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECT:
1. World at a Crossroads – these four words designate a state which can be
directly defined as change. The concept of crossroads, a frontier reached by
Europe and the world, serves as a point of departure for the panel discussion.
The concept entails a state of uncertainty and a time for choices. Ever since
the fall of the Berlin Wall and the peaceful political transition in Poland and
other Central and Eastern European countries in 1989, Europe has
significantly accelerated its integration but history has not come to its end
contrary to Fukuyama’s suggestions. The political and economic order has
begun to evolve as the command-and-control economies of Eastern Europe
proved to be a complete failure. In contrast, the Chinese experiments with
economic liberalisation pioneered by Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in 1978 turned
out successful. The order of economic activity, the ‘marching direction’ for the
world appeared set: towards market governance. I don't care if it's a white cat
or a black cat. It's a good cat as long as it catches mice, the Chinese leader
stated and pragmatically put the most populous country in the world on a
market-oriented development path following the example of the Asian Tigers
such as South Korea. Further, the economic reforms initiated by Prime
Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and Finance Minister Manmohan Singha in the
early 1990s in India, the gradual removal of business licensing and moving
towards the laissez-faire were only to confirm the trend.
2. Meanwhile, the ‘development pattern’ became stronger than ever, dominant
in fact, in development policies of fast-growing countries, which made the
impression of the world having set its course. Institutions established at
Bretton Woods, i.e. the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have
promoted the market approach and left no doubt that trade liberalisation,
opening up of financial markets, free flow of information and
deregulation/privatisation were to inspire growth. The Washington Consensus
resulted from a unique view of the world: the world that existed since the end
of World War II with Europe’s role defined by the strategic Euro-Atlantic
partnership with the U.S. offering its development opportunities. The
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crossroads appears when you begin to explore other socio-economic growth
opportunities that are not linked to Europe or U.S.: China, India, Brazil (strong
protectionism and market but also commitment to bridging the development
gap in society).
Uncertainties are visible not only in the competition space between countries
but also between businesses and their customers. Is the consumption of today
a continuation of the extensive model or perhaps a totally different type of
behaviour? Is the crisis, particularly in the U.S., going to strengthen low-
consumption, saving and self-denial behaviours? How should one proceed as
not to ‘consume up’ all the resources which are critical for development?
3. Global order has changed from bipolar (US-Soviet Union) through unipolar
(US as the hegemon state) to multipolar and multilateral. Countries like India,
China or Brazil pursue pro-active foreign economic policies, e.g. in Africa,
trying to shift the decision-making centre away from Washington, London,
Brussels or Moscow closer to Beijing, or New Delhi. The new world order is
being established and it seems to be a networked one. The level of
interdependency between countries is growing and the vision of the
‘networked world’ is turning into reality. There is a growing importance of
informal organisations such as G8 or G20 leaving formalised organisations
weaker e.g. UN. This means that the multipolar order may become
established in approximately 2020 with a group of strongly interdependent
countries playing the key role. This network of relations will spawn the new
order and Europe may play a major role in making it happen.
4. For Europe, which has been accustomed to Eurocentrism for centuries,
this situation comes as a surprise and source of confusion. Europe is in a
state of heart fibrillation, it is looking for its competitive advantage and a way
to respond to the new challenge. This is one of the reasons behind the need to
reflect on ‘the world at a crossroads’. However, should the discussion be
solely confined to the geographic shift and some countries having a higher
GDP growth than others? Do GDP and population size define the economic
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growth vectors? We share the view that today centres of power and influence
are shaped not by military prowess or geographic location. Culture and
technology, not just politics, provide a new dimension for assessing the
growth prospects and vectors of the world today. Hence, we suggest the
world should be thought of as an essentially flexible map which is subject to
attracting forces from four POLES that form its shape. The four poles are:
A) ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL MODELS. Europe has its political system
dilemmas and this is yet another reason for considering an alternative
global order and development pattern. What model should Europe adopt?
How to deepen integration between countries and come closer to the new
solution and what should the solution be? If the not the democracy in the
non-Western world, then what? Is it possible to enjoy effective growth
which contributes to global development in a system which does not allow
the majority to make decisions? Which political systems of the emerging
economies, i.e. China (centralised government) and India (decentralised
decision-making and federation), can inspire growth? Africa – is the neo-
colonialism returning as a result of the aggressive expansion of BRIC?
Does Europe have anything intellectual to offer in this area? How should it
enhance its story to become a competitive POLE that other want to
imitate?
B) SECURITY – CONFLICT. Global processes are not removing inequalities.
On the contrary, they are amplified in many less institutionally mature
countries. This raises the question about sources of conflict in the coming
years. Clearly, many will have an ethnic, religious or cultural background
(just to mention such growing conflicts within the EU, e.g. between Poland
and Lithuania, Czech Republic and Hungary etc.). The conflict of
generations over wealth is another threat (dwindling jobs in Europe,
prospects of extended retirement age and its potential impact on limited
career opportunities for young people). Could this lead to a global war
between generations? Will disputes be limited to the competition for
resources between countries or between generations? One of the most
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important sources of conflict may come from the clash of religious values.
Can these values be reconciled in order to improve global security?
C) COMMUNICATION AND TECHNOLOGY. The growing role of
communication in society may be one of the issues that will be critical for
the pace of growth and change in activity. The question why there are is so
much self-interest in the era of globalisation can be partly answered while
analysing the change in the communication world. In fact, the answer can
be trivial: self-interest has always existed but they could not be juxtaposed
without adequate communication technology. Let us just consider the
number of subscribers of digital telephony: there were 60 million in 1996 as
opposed to more than 5.3 billion mobile subscribers globally (some 77
percent of the population); many of them have two or three phones. How is
the open communication altering the world, how is it redefining the
borders? How does it affect social behaviours, how does it define groups,
attitudes and hypes? What conclusions for politics and democracy can be
drawn from the Arab Spring of Nations and the shift of civil society to the
Internet? What are the new competences that will be required of public
institutions and politicians? Is Europe a trend follower, a trend setter or a
passive observer? Does it have a concept of how it can take the lead in
this area?
Europe is fighting for leadership in several domains, e.g. energy. Is the
world in 50 years going to be the world of environmentally-friendly houses
and wind mills as German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants it to be? Can
such a European proposition be attractive? Does it stand a chance of
becoming a role model for the rest of the world or has Europe gone too far
while putting its economy at risk?
D) DEMOGRAPHICS. The altering age structure and the demographic
potential provide another point of gravity that will affect development. What
should the role of Europe be in the world of today in the context of a radical
shift in the demographic structure? This is not just the issue of a small
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number of young people in Europe but mainly the issue of creativity –
young people have more appetite for risk and they are ready to pave the
way, develop and search for out-of-the-box solutions. While the
competitive advantage of most of the highly developed countries rests on
the creative sector how is Europe going to ensure the inflow of young
people? Should it continue with its current migration policies on a new map
of the world? How should it take advantage of the fact that people want to
migrate to Europe? Should we create a strong magnet to attract
immigrants?
The discussion of this panel is designed as an attempt to review the
crossroads dilemmas and map out challenges for the Continent. It will largely
refer to panellists’ personal views and beliefs.
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NUMBERS, STATISTICS, CHARTS AND GRAPHIC
The World Map: source CIA Factbook
Countries by real GDP growth rate in 2010
Countries by population
Countries by life expectancy (men)
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Countries by population density
Countries by birth rate
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Major religions of the world (moral syncretism)
North vs. South
Population of Europe vs. Rest of the World (Eurostat)
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Energy consumption
New citizens (Number/percentage of migrants receiving new citizenship)
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Polish Confederation of Private Employers Lewiatan
6 Klonowa Street, 00-591 Warsaw, Poland, phone (+48 22) 845 95 50, fax (+48 22) 845 95 51, e-mail: [email protected], internet: www.prywatni.pl
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Share in world imports
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High technology exports as a percentage of total exports
GDP in constant prices
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Additional Inspiration:
1. The UE in the world. A statistical portrait. Eurostat 2010
2. World Economic Forum, The World Competitiveness Index 2010-2011