Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
John RumbleSustainability Team LeaderForward Planning
Climate Change in Hertfordshire
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Global Warming
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change Scenarios
Regional data on climate change
• UK Climate Impacts Programme climate
change scenarios www.ukcip.org.uk
• Describes a range of variables:
temperature, precipitation, sea level and
climatic variability
• Low emissions and high emissions
scenarios
• Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on
2020s, 2050s and 2080s)
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change is Unavoidable
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Is Man to Blame?
Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
GHG formula or abbreviation
Name Global Warming Potential of each GHG relative to CO2
CO2 Carbon dioxide 1 CH4 Methane 21 N2O Nitrous oxide 310 HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons 140-11,700 PFCs Perfluorocarbons 6,500-9,200 SF6 Sulphur hexafluoride 23,900
The Kyoto basketSix greenhouse gases & their GWPs
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Important Sources of GHGs
Gas
Carbon dioxide CO2
Methane CH4
Nitrous oxide N2O
Important sources in the UK
Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy
production, domestic emissions
Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the
gas distribution system, coal mining
Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass
burning, coal combustion, and some industrial
processes
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Projected Changes to Annual Average Temperature in UK
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Projected Changes to Seasonal Average Precipitation in UK
Winter Summer
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
E.g. temperature changes in the East of England
Change in average annual temperature
Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
East of England Study
www.sustainability-east.com
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Issues for The East of England
• Lack of water resources
• Pressure for development
• Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding
• Subsidence
• Higher annual temperatures
• Reduced soil moisture levels
• Sea level rise
• Coastal erosion
• Extreme events
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Climate Change in Herts
• Hotter drier summers; milder wetter winters
• Extreme high temperatures more frequent
• Extreme winter precipitation more frequent
• Significant decrease in soil moisture content
• Increase in thermal growing season
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
UK GHG Inventory• 1x1km National Datasets
– Traffic– Population– EUETS (Pollution Inventory)– Employment– Agriculture– Gas Supply– Electricity Supply
• Point Sources– (Refineries)– (Power Stations)– (Coke Production)– Industrial/Institutional Combustion– Cement Plant– Other Processes
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Local Authority Defra/DTI CO2 Inventory
• Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1) areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004
• Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data (electricity data are experimental)
– DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities and regional bodies to target activity more effectively”
• Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission estimates at local authority and regional level. The data represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or other process activities that emit CO2 plus the emissions relevant to the production of consumed electricity.
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
CO2 emissions by Local Authority per capita in 2003 (in kt CO2)
Domestic CO2 emissions by Local Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2)
Note: Emission intensity (per unit area) rather than total emission
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
2006 local CO2 Emissions Basis• Emission by Source
– Domestic– Transport– Industrial and Commercial Combustion– Agriculture– Industrial Production Processes– Refineries– Power Stations– Coke Production
• Emissions by Energy End User– Domestic– Transport– Industrial and Commercial Combustion– Agriculture– Industrial Production Processes– Refineries– Power Stations– Coke Production
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Addressing Everyday use and CO2 Emissions
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
We all contribute to Climate Change
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change
• The Nottingham Declaration is a
voluntary pledge to address the issues
of climate change. It represents a high-
level, broad statement of commitment
that any council can make to its own
community.
• Over 200 Councils now signed up
• The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack
was released July 2006
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
The Two Responses to Climate Change
• Mitigation of climate change
slowing down global warming by reducing
greenhouse gas emissions
• Adaptation to climate change
responding to the projected impacts of
climate change
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Mitigation
Adaptation
CHPEfficient cooling for buildings
Hydrogen fuel cells
Efficient cooling for transport
Insulation
Solar energy
Flood defences
Water efficiency
Emissions trading
Heatwave plans
Stronger foundations
Reduction in flying
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Adaptation Mitigation
Description Actions which help us
prepare for changes in our
climate
Actions which help us reduce
our greenhouse gas
emissions
Examples • Improving flood defences
• Designing homes and
infrastructure for higher
temperatures
• Improving water efficiency
• Improving energy efficiency
• Renewable energies
• Using private cars less
Geography • Locally • Globally
Time scale • Short-long term • Long-term (>40 yrs)
Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007
Using the Nottingham Declaration Action Pack
• The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action plans, but it is designed for flexibility
• You can enter at different points in the process, building on any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of particular concern for your authority