Download - Pilot study Langeoog Estimation of Damage for various water levels - Using the MERK Method -
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Pilot study LangeoogEstimation of Damage for various water levels
- Using the MERK Method -
Holger BlumNLWK Norden
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• To test the method: theoretical water levels - First approach
• Estimation of Damage(based on MERK - method)
• Visualisation of Intangible / Tangible damages
• Results
OutlineOutline
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• No Dikes
• Same water level above the reference surface (mNN) covering the investiagtion area
• Damage due to the process of breaching of a dike or dune (Impact Zone) is ignored
• High water level will fall within ~ 24 hours to normal level
Assumptions for the Damage EstimationAssumptions for the Damage Estimation
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• Minimum Level = NN + 1.6 m (~ high water at spring tide)
• Maximum Level = NN + 5.1 m(design water level at present)
• Variation of water level by steps of 0.5 m
First ApproachFirst Approach
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 1.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 1.6 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 2.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 2.1 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 2.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 2.6 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 3.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 3.1 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 3.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 3.6 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 4.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 4.1 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 4.6 m floodInundated area by NN + 4.6 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Inundated area by NN + 5.1 m floodInundated area by NN + 5.1 m flood
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• The investigation done by Uni Kiel:- microscale valuation (field work)- Damage potential by heights and spatial
distribution (georeferenced)
• Damage estimation done by NLWK:- Analysis of affected areas and objects- Calculation of estimated damage - Generalization of results
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• Object related damages
• (flooded) Area related damages
Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)
Affected Guest Beds
Affected Inhabitants
Evacuated Inhabitants
(Drinking water supply)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)
Affected Guest Beds
Affected Inhabitants
Evacuated Inhabitants
IF water_level_in_building > 0 THEN „AFFECTED“ = True
Flooding of Ground floor ==> 100% of beds / 100% of inhabitants in this building are affected
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimation of Damage (intangible) Estimation of Damage (intangible)
Affected Guest Beds
Affected Inhabitants
Evacuated Inhabitants
IF water_level_at_highest_floor > 0
THEN „EVACUATION_essential“ = True
• No “dry place” in the building• Different numbers and heights of the floors are taken
into account• A real evacuation will affect more persons.
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.1 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.6 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.1 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.6 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.1 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.6 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.6 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 5.1 m)Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 5.1 m)
Estimated Number ofAffected Guest Beds
0 - 1
2 - 9
10 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1000
1001 - 1250
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)
Estimated Number of Affected Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)
Estimated Number of Evacuated Inhabitants
0 - 1
2 - 5
6 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 150
151 - 175
176 - 200
201 - 300
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• Beginning at a water level of NN + 2.6 m evacuation will be essential
• Some building in the southern part of the island will be isolated. Some inhabitants of those houses should be evacuated.
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Est. Evacuated inhabitants Est. Evacuated inhabitants
0
100
200
300
400
500
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Water Level [müNN]
Nu
mb
er o
f e
vac
ua
ted
Inh
abit
ants
[-]
Number of Evac.Inhabitants
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• Object related damages
• (flooded) Area related damages
Estimation of Damage (tangile) Estimation of Damage (tangile)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
Based on the mircoscale valuation of Langeoog and according to the MERK-formulas (REESE 2003)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (1)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (1)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
• Evacuation rates: Private Inv. = 5% / 40%Fixed Assets = 0% / 30%Stock value = 5% / 20%
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (2)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (2)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
• Evacuation rate = 80 %
• No damage to aero-planes, railway engines or railway carriage is taken into account
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (3)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (3)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs • Loss of 55%(Lost animals and reduced production)Traffic Areas and
Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (4)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (4)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs • The Flood persists for one day.water level NN+5.1m: Damage to Gross value added per day = 114.000 €
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (5)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (5)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs • Costs: 150 €/pers.
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (6)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (6)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs• Damage
to Traffic Areas and Recreational Land (Cost of Cleaning)
3.6 €/m² (unsurfaced)6.0 €/m² (paved)
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Damage Estimation - Assumptions (7)Damage Estimation - Assumptions (7)
Buildings
Private Inventory
Fixed Assets
Stock Value
Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs
• Damage:
0.01 €/m² (greenland)
0.50 €/m² (farmland)
Traffic Areas and Recreational Land
Agricultural Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 2.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 1,662,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 2.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 6,720,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 3.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 18,775,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 3.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 30,685,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 4.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 46,828,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 4.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 63,637,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 5.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 5.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 250.000
250.001 - 1.000.000
1.000.001 - 2.000.000
2.000.001 - 4.000.000
4.000.001 - 6.000.000
6.000.001 - 8.000.000
8.000.001 - 10.000.000
= 82,413,000 €
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 2.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 2.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 2.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 3.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 3.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 3.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 4.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 4.6 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 4.6 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Estimated damage by NN + 5.1 m floodEstimated damage by NN + 5.1 m flood
Estimated DamageMERK - method [€]
0 - 25.000
25.001 - 100.000
100.001 - 200.000
200.001 - 400.000
400.001 - 600.000
600.001 - 800.000
800.001 - 10.000.000
Traffic Area andRecreational Land(Cost of Cleaning)
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Water Level [müNN]
Est
imat
ed
Da
mag
e [E
uro
]
BuildingsPrivate InventoryFixed AssetsStock ValueVehiclesLifestock AssetsGross Value AddedEvacuation CostsAgricultrual LandTraffic Areas and Recreational LandTotal
Sum total –All damage categoriesSum total –All damage categories
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Water Level [müNN]
Est
imat
ed
Da
mag
e [E
uro
]
Stock ValueVehiclesLifestock AssetsGross Value AddedEvacuation CostsAgricultrual LandTraffic Areas and Recreational Land
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1water level [mNN]
Agricultrual Land
Traffic Areas andRecreational LandEvacuation Costs
Gross Value Added
Lifestock Assets
Vehicles
Stock Value
Fixed Assets
Private Inventory
Buildings
Rate of damage category to totalRate of damage category to total
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• Major damage categories:
• Minor damage categories: (< 1.5% of total) Vehicles
Lifestock Assets
Gross Value Added
Evacuation Costs
Agricultrual Land
First ResultsFirst Results
Buildings 18% - 48%
Private Inventory 22% - 31%
Fixed Assets 14% - 20%
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Thesis: Higher water levels cause higher damages.
• Plausibility check of MERK – formulas, implementation and data processing
• useful method but costly
First ResultsFirst Results
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
• In a 2nd approach the modelling of flooding will be taken into account: Hydraulic boundary conditions (breaching, tide …)
• The damage to traffic areas and recreational land should be adjusted to the situation of an island.
• Considering all kind of vehicles and other evacuation rates?
OutlookOutlook
NLWK Betriebsstelle Norden
Thank You For Your Attention!