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Technical and physical limits
to adaptation
This motion is presented by
Lucy Fisher and Esme Holtom
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Introduction
Humans are remarkably
adaptable
Low risk, high impact climate events are
evidence for physical limits
Should we rely on technology as a
solution?
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Climate impact scenarios
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Rapid De-glaciations
Ice melt contributes tosea level rise
Ice sheet dynamics are
difficult to understand
Sea level rise threatens small island
sovereign states
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Change in ocean circulation
Substantial slowing or collapse of Thermohalinecirculation
Cooling in Europe by 2-3 degrees
Reduced precipitation
Change in direction of climate change
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Major feedbacks
Methane reservoir
underlying ocean floor
and arctic permafrost
Permafrost released five
times more methane than
expected
May lead to rapid
increase in GHG
concentrations
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Denhttp://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Methane-3D-balls.png/250px-Methane-3D-balls.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Organic_Chemistry/Print_version&h=252&w=250&sz=24&hl=en&start=4&sig2=HLsxAdtQAcR6XbK7dg6fyg&tbnid=FzT3-Cf6T3qJTM:&tbnh=111&tbnw=110&ei=dJYLSKaeCYHm0QSsh420AQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmethane%2Bballs%2Bof%2Bfire%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den -
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Mountain glacier melt
Mountain glacier melt
has more than
doubled over last 2
years.
Increased water
stress for billions of
people
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Other ecosystems
Coral reefs due to
acidification
Loss of boreal forests
Coastal squeeze and
disappearance ofunique ecosystems
http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.solcomhouse.com/green_Wrasse_web.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.solcomhouse.com/coralreef.htm&h=346&w=294&sz=33&hl=en&start=1&sig2=rmmiRfIA2bWDhM4rs0shJw&um=1&tbnid=0LtsJp2gGYE5vM:&tbnh=120&tbnw=102&ei=yJYLSJOoC5So0gSotOmzAQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcoral%2Breef%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1T4GGLR_enGB263GB263%26sa%3DN -
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Technological responses?
Loss of water-supply from glacier melt
Thinning Arctic ice and threat to Inuitcommunities
Loss of ecosystem services
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Glacier melt
Artificial snow-making?
Constrained by water
supply Not above -4C
No technologicalresponse beyond
threshold temperature
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Loss of Arctic sea ice
Inuit hunting on sea ice
30- 40% population
dependent on as sole
livelihood
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Loss of Arctic ice
limits to technological adaptation
Snowmobiles unable to locate thin ice
GPS as adaptation? But more risk-taking
loss of traditional
navigationalknowledge
A d h ll th i h
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And when all the ice has
gone..?
The loss of keystone species may
cascade through the socio-ecological
system, eventually influencing
ecosystems services that humans relyon, including provisioning, regulating,
cultural, and supporting services.
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,
in IPCC AR4 WGII)
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Technological adaptation to loss of
ecosystem services?
5-6 C warming:
species extinctions
40% ecosystems affected
Loss of key species:
eg. pollinators?
Water-filtration systems
instead of watersheds?
Replacement for rainforests?
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The future without limits
Biosphere 2Biosphere 3? Emigration?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mars_Hubble.jpg -
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Technological limits to adaptation
Water-supply from glacier melt:
snow-makinglimited by water
Inuit hunting on Arctic ice:
GPS/ snow-mobileslimited by ice
Loss of ecosystem services:
Biosphere 3? - no reliable technological
response
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Conclusion
There are low probability, high impact
climate scenarios that present physical
limits to adaptation
Cannot rely on technology to adapt to
extreme climate events
Are technological responses always
adaptation?
Mitigation is vital