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Climate change: facts, impacts and global security
Unesco Paris July 2009
Philip C. Reid
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FACTS
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IPCC 2007
Warming unequivocalVery high confidence that due to forcing by
human activities
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Global surface temperature anomalies (°C)
2008
NOAA GISSBase period 1951-1980
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Global surface temperature anomalies (°C) 2008
NOAA GISSBase period 1951-1980
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GLOBAL TRENDS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENTO
cean
Hea
t Con
tent
(1022
J) 1955-2003
Years
Domingues et al. 2008 Nature 453
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HYDROLOGICAL CYCLEPRECIPITATION EVAPORATION
SALINITY
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Poleward freshening and higher salinities in low latitudes in the 1990s
Curry et al. 2003 Nature 426See also Rignoul GRL 4 2007
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Carbon dioxide (CO2)
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Oxygen isotope (ice volume) and temperature down the EPICA ice core (Antarctica)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
CO
2 pp
m
Age x1000 yearsEPICA Community members 2004 Nature
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Global Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends)
Year 2008: 384.83 ppm 38% above pre-industrialMauna Loa May 2009: 390.18 ppm
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Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends)
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FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONSCEMENT MANUFACTUREFOREST DESTRUCTION
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1751 -2006329 bil
tonnes C
East Asia: China
Mill
ion
met
ric to
nnes
of c
arbo
n
2006 record8230 mil tonnes CNorth America
Source:Boden et al. 2009
CDIAC USA
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Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
20062005
2007
(Avgs.)
2008
Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS and Global Carbon Project 2009 , Canadell 2009 lecture
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Earth PyrogeographyMean number of fires from satellites 2001-2006
Fires per year
> 5000
1 – 45 – 19
20 – 4950 – 99100 – 199
200 – 499
Bowman et al. 2009 Science 324
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IMPACTS
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SEA LEVEL RISE
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Sea Level Rise
From coastal observationsFrom satellite observationsModel projections
Rahmsdor f et al. 2007, Science
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Ocean carbon pumps
Small variation - potential large impact on the atmosphere
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MELTING ICE
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Arctic Annual Sea Ice Minimum
NASA 2009 from Canadell lecture
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Antarctica Ice velocity and mass loss/gain of large basins
OGain
Gt per year
+10 Gt yr –1
–10 Gt yr –1
OLoss
Gt per year
Rignot et al. 2008 Nature Geoscience
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Schematic section of the Antarctic ice sheet
Australian Antarctic Division web site
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MOUNTAIN GLACIERS
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Retreat of the Gangotri glacier snout from 1780 to 2001
Bajracharya et al. 2007 ICIMOD
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METHANEPERMAFROST HYDRATES
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Map of Northern Hemisphere permafrost Methane
Alfred Wegener Institute Katey Walter Univ. Alaska
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TRANS-ARCTIC MIGRATION
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Pacific diatom in the Northwest Atlantic circa 1998
2001
Neodenticula seminae
Reid et al. 2007. Global Change Biology 13
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DROUGHTFLOODS
TROPICAL CYCLONES
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REGIME SHIFT
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1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002
J
D
M
J
S
North Sea Phytoplankton Colour
1946 2002
Rei
d et
al.
1998
, Nat
ure
391,
546
(upd
ated
)
Step changes in regional sea systems: Regime shift
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Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Mar-Apr 10
6km
2
YearsBrown 2000 IPCC 2005 WG 1
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BIODIVERSITY
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Thomas et al. 2004 Nature Rashida Saleem web photo
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Northerly movement of plankton and fish
Warm temperate slope species
Bea
ugra
nd e
t al.
2003
. Sci
ence
296
,169
2-16
94
2005 Euchaeta hebes, Clausocalanus, Ceratium hexacanthum
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A further complication
Ocean acidification
Coral reef destructionExtinction? Calcareous plankton
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pH since the Miocene and projections to 2150pH
Time in millions of years before present
Turley et al. 2006 and Canadell lecture
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FOREST/PEAT FIRES
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Forest fires in 2100
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GLOBALSECURITY
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WO
RL
D P
OPU
LA
TIO
N
YEARSource: www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.htmlGelbard, Haub, Kent 1999 Population bulletin 54 www.prb,org
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WATER SCARCITYTRADE
URBANISATIONMIGRATION
TRAVELWAR
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HUMAN HEALTHEPIDEMICS
HEAT EXHAUSTION
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ECONOMICS
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Sir Nicholas Stern 2006
STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change
Strong, early action outweigh the costs
March 2009 A Blueprint For a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and
Prosperity
Costs unnecesary or can be delayed? Profoundly misguided, risks enormous
July 2009 Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Lecturehosted by Chatham House
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Simulated surface air temperature in Bergen model
Hel
ge D
rang
e, B
erge
n
Temp anomaly °C v mean temp 1951-1980
Projected enormous change within 100 years
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Passing on the message to children
• Considerable educational material available• Very variable quality• Incorporate CC into all aspects of the curriculum • Teach ethics and economics of climate
change• Include new renewable energy sources• Focus on climate change in geography• Stimulate inventiveness • Encourage careers in science and engineering• Need to change the way we live and interact
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Conclusions• Very rapid observation and predictive change, accelerating• Wide range of impacts that can be attributed to climate change• Key role of the oceans• Complication of effect on carbon cycle of ocean acidification (pH)• Trends of emissions, T, CO2 and impacts tracking close to
highest scenarios of IPCC• Rapid melting of glaciers and some ice sheets• Expected high extinction rate of plants and animals by 2100• Large global security consequences• Major economic benefits if we act now • Decadal to 100 year plus prognosis worrying• Crucial to pass on the message to the next generation
NOT TACKLING ISSUES WITH URGENCY AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
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Positive take home message
NOT A DOOM MONGERStern report
Huge economic potential
PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE BY ADAPTING!BUT implement NOW!
By changing all aspects of our life styles
SAVE ENERGY, INSULATE, PRODUCE ENERGY AT THE HOUSE LEVEL
DEVELOP PUBLIC TRANSPORTOPERATE LOCALLY, RECYCLE
INTENSIFY INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS
ACCELERATE MITIGATION MEASURESSee IPCC WG 3 Report May 2007