Download - Peter Novotny Ignite Talk Ned Feb 26
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THE BACKLASH AGAINST ELECTION MONITORS
Mr. Peter NovotnyReagan Fascell Democracy Fellow
International Forum for Democratic Studies
National Endowment for DemocracyFebruary 26, 2010
The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily
reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.
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Key Actors in Election Observation
(Inter)-national observers
(Non)- partisan observers
Other observers (talking heads, rubber –stamp,, electoral tourists, book readers, fighters)
3 generations of observers (1st symbolic presence, 2nd election day boom, 3rd comprehensive long-term methodology)
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Who is who ? International or national ? Partisan
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International and Domestic Observers: A Comparison
International Missions Domestic NGO Observers
Better access to stakeholders
Media attentionMissions are limited in
time and number of observers
STOs work as mobile teams
May mediate conflictsInternational expertise
and international attentionSubject to Invitation and
Accreditation Procedure
Ability to deploy high number of stationary observers at polling sites
May conduct PVT Voter education, voters’
rights protection hotlines
Observe and advocate for reform on a long-term basis
Easier target for obstruction and intimidation 4
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Civic Education in Croatia 5
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Goals of Election Monitoring
To objectively assess election process
To safeguard its integrity by deterring fraud
To instill public confidence in election process
To improve the quality of the election process
Strengthen democracy at national & local levels
Engage citizens in voter right protection
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Methodology of Observation
Before, during and after election dayLong-term assessment (evidence–based)International standards, regional
instrumentsStatistically based approach Experts: legal, political, media, minorities,
campaign finance, statisticianTraining of observers (active observers)Reporting forms (checklists)Statistical analysis, IT enhanced reporting Statements, conclusions, recommendations
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Election Rigging Today:Before : Denial of opposition’s registration,
control of media, abuse of state resources, voter coercion and intimidation, violence, changing rules – constitution, electoral system, threshold, boundaries delimitation
During: Ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, intimidation, disenfranchisement, vote count fraud, tabulation and aggregation fraud
After: Announcing rigged results, not allowing duly elected to take office
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BEFORE - Gerrymandering cartoon (1812)9
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11 AFTER: Counting Ballots for 2 days
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Color Revolutions and Backlash
Color Revolution Syndrome (Georgia, Ukraine)Blame on Western and NGO observersOSCE accused of “double standards” (West & East)Limitations of intl. observers (Russia 2007-08)Intervention against intl. observers (Moldova 09)Imprisonment of domestic observers (Belarus 06)Denial of accreditation, cancelling NGO
registration, intimidation of domestic monitorsCIS observers
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DURING : Observers trying to observe early voting (KG) 13
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DURING : Voters attempting to enter a polling site.
fff
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15 AFTER: Invalidating Unused Ballots
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Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) as Tool Against
Count-Rigging
Statistical verification method conducted by Domestic Observer Groups
Representative random sample of polling sites
To deter or detect and denounce tabulation fraud
Reliable quick projection of results Qualitative and quantitative assessmentProven to be reliable powerful tool for
domestic observer groups worldwide16
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PVT (Quick Count) vs. Exit Polls
PVT Exit Polls
PVT results are based on sample of results collected from polling stations
Quick projection of results within margin of error
PVT data include qualitative assessments
Exit Polls are based on voluntary answers of voters
Voters may hide their real preference
Voters may refuse to answer
Exit polls are not reliable in post-conflict countries
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CeSID PVT center in Serbia
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Presentation of PVT in Serbia (CeSID)20
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NDI website with e-mapping showing fraud map and data21
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Conclusions
Role of domestic observers increased significantly
International election monitoring remains important
in transitional and post-conflict societies
Effective synergy - local and international observers
Innovative methods used to counter election fraud
Public and media need better understanding of the
role, principles, and methods of credible observation
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