Perspectives on Afghanistan
HEIDI MEYER, MARCH 2006 –
OCT 2011
A PERSONAL VIEW
Afghanistan
The War on Terror Begins –2001
18 years later - Questions
Was Americas longest war worth it?
And what lessons have we learned abut
complex coalition operations?
Farkhunda Malikzada
In 2012
Farkhunda
Malikzada was
a 27-year-old
Afghan woman
who was
publicly beaten
and slain by a
mob in Kabul
falsely accused
of burning the
Koran.
What has Changed?
“These were not the Taliban who during their
six-year rule in the 1990s executed people
during soccer matches. In fact, the Taliban also
denounced Farkundha’s killing. Nor were her attackers the former militants and warlords who
were accused of beating and raping women
during the civil war of the 1990s.”
“These weren’t men who came down from
the mountains — they were educated city-dwellers who rushed to beat and murder a
woman based on hearsay,”
Stoning of Rokshana
Bachabaze – playing with boys
“It is on the increase in almost every region of Afghanistan - I asked local
authorities to act to stop this practice but they don't do anything”
Abdulkhabir Uchqun, Afghan MP
Kabul Bank Scandal
$900 M embezzled
$180 M recovered
Two five year jail sentences
“The political elites have ethnocentric agendas, exacerbate tribal rivalries and political intolerance, erode political will, and increase impunity for the powerful.”
Taliban homemade bombs greatest
cause of civilian deaths ……
ISIS in East Afghanistan
Opium – AFG production exceeds
world demand
The Bare Facts Afghan War 2001-2018
The Afghanistan War since it started in 2001 has cost the US economy $1.07 trillion. It will cost Britain £40 BN; £2,000 for every taxpaying household.
Corruption in Afghanistan is widespread; 172/180 nations in the 2019 Corruption Index. New York Times “corruption can no longer be described as a cancer on the system – it is the system.” 80 percent of Afghans say that corruption is a serious problem in their lives.
Killed: 2,386 U.S. military deaths, 20,049 US wounded in action. And 1,173 U.S. civilian contractor fatalities. By 2016,there were 444 British service members killed; 2600 injured; 5000 psychologically damaged.
1.3 million Afghans are displaced from their homes – many in desperate circumstances
Afghan police still routinely carry out virginity test on women in custody and use results to charge them with morality crimes. 12 year old girls are still stoned to death.
The Taliban has regained hard won territory that cost foreign lives inc. Helmand
ISIS has a strong foothold in eastern Afghanistan
And was it Worth it?
To answer this and related Questions –
we need to understand more about
…..
How the past has shaped the future?
The continued threat of ISIS/Terrorism?
how government corruption impacts the
future?
And what role could the Taliban play in
legitimate power sharing?
Map of Afghanistan with Tribal areas
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under
CC BY-SA
Pashtuns – sunni moslem
Tajik - sunni
Hazara – shia moslem
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Uzbek - sunni
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
Map of Afghanistan and FATA/NWFP
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
A review of Afghan History from the 1970’s
King Zahir Shah
King Zahir Shah ruled from
1933 – 1973
In the last ten years of his
reign he tried to modernize
and reform Afghanistan.
In 1973 General Mohammed Daud
seized power from his cousin King
Zahir Shah and declared a
Republic.
By 1978 he is overthrown in a pro-
Soviet Coup.
The Peoples Democratic Party
comes to power but is paralyzed
by violent in fighting and
opposition from the Mujahideen
who are backed by the US,
Pakistan, China, Saudi Arabia,
China and Iran.
General Mohammed Daud – a Republic
The Rise of the Mujahideen
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
Soviet Invasion 1979
Mujahedeen wage Jihad against a
pro soviet government
Soviets fight Insurgents ……by 1988
sign accord to withdraw
15,000 Soviet military dead…….
Soviet Withdrawal in 1989
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC
Devastating Civil war 1992 - 1996
Leaders:
• Burhanuddin Rabbani.
• Ahmad Shah Massoud – later leader of the
Northern Alliance.
• Hussain Anwari.
• Abdul Haq.
• Abdul Rasul Sayyaf.
• Abdul Ali Mazari.
• Karim Khalili
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Pakistan’s Involvement – an Islamic
Revolution
Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, wanted the Mujahideen to establish a government in
Afghanistan. The director-general of the ISI, Hamid Gul, was interested in an Islamic revolution
which would transcend national borders, not just in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also in Central
Asia. To set up the proposed Mujahideen government, Hamid Gul ordered an assault on
Jalalabad-with the intent on using it as the capital for the new government Pakistan was
interested in establishing in Afghanistan.
Hamid Gul –
Godfather
of the
Taliban
1996 Taliban takes Kabul – Imposes harsh
Sharia law
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
Taliban ………a new form of jihad
“Brother …tell your
cousin he must hand
in his AK47” – Talib
enforcer 1996 – on
seeing this poster of
Rambo on a village
wall
2001 - Twin Towers
Osama bin Laden statement on 7 October 2001 in which he
directed a comment at “the United States … and its people:”
“I swear by Almighty God who raised the heavens without
pillars that neither the United States nor he who lives in the
United States will enjoy security before we can see it as a
reality in Palestine and before all the infidel armies.”
The legal Basis for international
involvement in Afghanistan
Taliban Government of Afghanistan was an accomplice to 9/11 and, therefore, a justifiable target
UN Security Council adopted its Resolution 1368 - expressed “its readiness to take all necessary steps to respond to the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, and to combat all forms of terrorism, in accordance with its responsibilities under the Charter of the United Nations.”
The US and the UK used Article 51 of the UN Charter, ‘the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence’ if an armed attack occurs, to justify their action in Afghanistan
Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1386 of December 2001 was the mandate for a 5,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to deploy to the region in order to provide security and to assist in the reconstruction of the country under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
UNSCR 1510 in October 2003 expanded the ISAF mandate to cover the whole of Afghanistan and thereby lay the groundwork for ISAF commanders to expand operations beyond Kabul.
Oct 2001 – Bombing of Tora Bora
The Northern Alliance – non Pashtun tribes (Uzbek,
Tajik and Hazara) unite with the international force
to fight the Taliban
Bonn Conference DEC 2001
Laying the foundation for US and NATO state building efforts in AFG
New constitution, an independent judiciary, free and fair elections, a centralized security sector, protection of minorities and women
Maximalist model of post conflict construction
25 Afghans (representing former warlords) under UN auspices set plan for governing the country (no Taliban at the table)
A new constitution with a strong Presidency and centralized rule
Hamid Karzai heads interim administration until elections in 2004
Bonn Conference DEC 2001
On nation building:
Britain – drug enforcement/poppy
eradication (Helmand)
Germany – training the Police
US - training an Afghan army
Italy – building a judicial system
Japan – disarmament
US Training the Afghan military
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
2003 NATO led ISAF Peacekeeping mission begins
Under UN Resolution 1386 NATO took the lead of the UN backed International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan on 11 August 2003 made up of mostly NATO forces
First out of Europe mission for NATO
4,700 troops from 28 NATO nations join the US, Canada and UK to provide security while Afghanistan builds an army and international civilians - led by the UN to nation build.
The Taliban Regroups
The Insurgency Intensifies in 2003
Taliban reorganized by Mullah Omar, its leader, against the government and NATO ISAF in 2003
In the initial years little fighting, but from 2006 the Taliban made significant gains.
Taliban, (and Haqqani Network, Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin) wage asymmetric war with guerrilla tactics and ambushes in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets and turncoat killings against coalition forces.
The Taliban exploited weaknesses in the Afghan government, one of the most corrupt in the world, to reassert influence across rural areas of southern and eastern Afghanistan.
NATO ISAF responded in 2006 by increasing troops for counterinsurgency operations to clear and hold villages and nation building projects to win hearts and minds. Violence sharply escalated from 2007 to 2009
While ISAF continued to battle the Taliban insurgency, the Taliban flee across the border into Pakistan and are given safehaven by Pashtun tribes and ISI
2009 Bush steps down for Obama……
This Photo by
Unknown Author is
licensed under CC
BY-SA
General Petraeus, US CENTCOM Commander persaudes Obama to announce a massive and expensive troop and civilian surge based on his Counter Insurgency Strategy (COIN) ; at the same time Obama says a draw down will commence in 2011 and conclude in 2014.
NATO ISAF Troop numbers begin to surge in 2009 continuing to increase through 2011 when roughly 140,000 foreign troops operated under ISAF and U.S. command in Afghanistan.
Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine was at the heart of the Afghan surge campaign
Petraeus’s COIN doctrine said, instead of concentrating on the enemy you want to kill, concentrate on the civilians you want to protect
Counterinsurgencies are protracted by nature and require considerable expenditure of time and resources
“clear, hold, and build” -- in other words, push the insurgents out, keep them out, and use the resulting space and time to establish a legitimate government, build capable security forces, and improve the Afghan economy.
“Money is ammunition’’ – pouring vast amounts of money into local projects and government to rebuild an economy
This was based on the notion in 2009 that COIN had worked in Iraq
NATO ISAF Troop Levels
Obama
announces
troop surges
and at same
time
drawdown by
2014 to
commence in
2011
Draw down begins
in 2012
Draw down
complete in 2014
The Drawdown to Resolute Support
At the same time as announcing a 30,000 troop increase in 2009 Obama states that troops will begin to withdraw in 2011.
In May 2012, NATO leaders endorse an exit strategy for withdrawing their forces.
Major combat operations end in December 2014, leaving a residual force in the country known as Resolute Support to train Afghan Forces and as a counter terrorism force.
In October 2014, British forces handed over the last bases in Helmand to the Afghan Forces officially ending their combat operations in the war
On 28 December 2014, NATO formally ended ISAF combat operations in Afghanistan and officially transfers full security responsibility to the Afghan government.
The NATO led Operation Resolute Support was formed the same day as a successor to ISAF. In Jan 2020, about 9000 US and 5000 NATO troops remain in Afghanistan without any peace deal with Taliban – there role is primarily counter terrorism and helping to train the Afghan Army.
Trump administration wants to withdraw all troops but recognizes there is a terrorist threat still in this unstable – sometimes ungoverned - nation.
Big Miscalculations…………
Leaving a power vacuum after the Russians withdrew in 1989
Bonn – creating a maximalist government highly centralized with a strong presidency, in a country that has a tradition of decentralized regional rule.
Bonn – not inviting the Taliban to sit at the negotiating table full of former war lords hated by the Afghan people. Not fully pursuing reconciliation with the Taliban.
Not fully engaging Pakistan and ISI politically - who fuelled and still fuel the fight
Undertaking a nation building effort to create “Switzerland” in two years (2009 to 2011) from a country in the “biblical age”
Using blue helmets/NATO nation builders without a peace agreement in place
IC/US military pouring trillions of development dollars into a corrupt country and thereby exacerbating the excessive corruption to the point that “Corruption is now the system”
The slow pace and lack of resources allocated to build a legitimate professional police force
Petraeus: Counterinsurgency strategy (COIN) “Insurgencies are protracted by nature. Thus, COIN operations always demand considerable expenditures of time and resources.” – no time and too many resources
Obama: announcing troop increases at the same time as giving a timeline for withdrawal
Trump continuing to put troops in country…………..thereby perpetuating a vicious cycle of violence and provoking the Taliban
Lessons from Vietnam
Supporting a corrupt government
Insurgents safe haven in Cambodia
Not fully understanding the culture or local dynamics
Pumping huge amounts of international funds into an already corrupt system
Trying to win hearts and minds by protecting the people while at the same time ruining their livelihood, killing innocent civilians, linking them to a corrupt predatory government
An up hill battle to win hearts and minds at home
And lessons from the Soviets ………
Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine was at the heart of the Afghan campaign – but was it right?
Will Petraeus be thought of, in time, as a hero guilty of no more than a distracting foible? Or as most responsible for two disastrous wars?
His COIN doctrine said, instead of concentrating on the enemy you want to kill, concentrate on the civilians you want to protect – but from whom, a corrupt and predatory government or the Taliban?
“Money is ammunition,’’- fuelled endemic massive corrosive corruption with billions of $ pumped into AFG by the US and has created one of the most corrupt nations on earth
“clear, hold, and build” -- in other words, push the insurgents out, keep them out, and use the resulting space and time to establish a legitimate government, build capable security forces, and improve the Afghan economy – but for two years (2009 – 2011) with combat operations ceasing in 2014?
Deny insurgents safe haven – except for crossing the border into Pakistan?
This Photo by Unknown
Author is licensed under
CC BY-NC-ND
Our Ignorance
Failure to
Understand the role of Pakistan (and Central Asian dynamics)
understand history, tribal dynamics and cultural norms
Learn from the Soviets and their disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in 1979
understand the difference between mujahedeen and Taliban jihad
understand the deeply corrosive and destructive force of pouring money into a country that already had a culture of corruption
comprehend a truly biblical Afghanistan
Understand the devastating consequences when a country is stripped of its middle class and left with a political elite and a rural uneducated poor
Learn from history (Vietnam) the complexities of COIN with corrupt GOVs
Understand the complexity of nation building when 40 countries are involved to keep peace with no peace agreement in place
Believe a COIN strategy could work (when all the key elements were missing.)
The Future……..
Bringing the Taliban to the table and negotiating a power sharing agreement
Dealing with Pakistan/ISI politically
Curbing rampant corruption within the political elite of Afghanistan
Surgically applying international development money so there is full accountability and the money reaches the Afghan people not the political elite - over time
Tying international development fund to measures to cut corruption and protect human rights (particularly investing in women and children)
Building a legitimate police force and judiciary that can uphold law and order on both sides of that coin
Withdrawing international troops from country in concert with a political solution with the Taliban and Pakistan (maybe leave a small special ops force to keep watch on ISIS/Jihadis)
19 years later - Questions
Was it worth it?