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Pattern-Based Strategy:
Implications for Higher Ed
Steve Bittinger
The Global Financial Crisis Highlights That
Change Is a Constant — Not a Variable
Customers
Vendors
Market/Economic
Weak Signal
Instability as Normal
Operations Seeking Fact-Based Decisions
Increasing "Undetected"
Business Impacts
Increased Focus on Delivering Solutions
That Provide Intelligence,
Collaboration, Agility
Increased Business
Connectivity –Network Effect
Leaders Proactively
Using "Collective" for
Innovation
Low
High
BU
Centralized
BU
BUCorporate
Core
Periphery
BU
Supplier
Corporate
Tightly
Held
Widening
Ecosystem
Control
Levels
Technology
Business Process
Information
People
Automation Productivity E-Commerce EcosystemPattern-Based
Strategy
Trends: Five Eras of IT Business Value-Add
A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, Snowden & Boone, Harvard Business Review, Nov 2007
The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated worldKurtz & Snowden, IBM Systems Journal, Vol 42, No 3, 2003
The Cynefin Framework
John Boyd’s OODA ―Loop‖
Orientation is central, shaping observation, shaping decisions, shaping action, and in turn is
shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.
Competitive advantage comes from quickness over the entire ―loop, and from how well orientation
can make sense of and match changing external conditions.
Observations Action
(Test)
Cultural
Traditions
Genetic
Heritage
New
Information Previous
Experience
Analyses &
SynthesisFeed
Forward
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Implicit
Guidance
& Control
Unfolding
Interaction
With
EnvironmentUnfolding
Interaction
With
Environment Feedback
Feed
Forward
Decision
(Hypothesis)
Feed
Forward
Feedback
Outside
Information
Unfolding
Circumstances
Observe Orient Decide Act
The Essence of Winning and Losing, J. R. Boyd (1995)
Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business, Chet Richards (2004)
Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd, Frans Osinga (2007)
John Boyd’s Operational Principles:
Trust-based Agility
Einheit: Mutual Trust
• Unity, mutual trust, implicit communication built on common experiences.
• Spontaneous, self-disciplined cooperation.
• Absolute confidence that your teammates will do the right thing
Fingersptizengefuhl: Intuitive Skill
• Intuitive Competence (―fingertip-feeling‖). Gut-feeling‖
• Pervasive, shared training, methods and expectations.
Auftrag: The Contract of Leadership
• Authority pushed to the cutting edges
• Subordinates understand, accept, intent of orders, Leaders require them to use initiative, freedom and flexibility to meet or exceed goals.
Schwehrpunkt: Focus and Direction
• Focus and direction of efforts understood, accepted, by all.
• ―Everyone would have agreed it was the right thing to do, and would have done the same thing, under the circumstances…‖
Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business, Chet Richards (2004)
Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd, Frans Osinga (2007)
Seeking Exceptions and Fact-Based
Decisions in Information
• Just as there was too much data —now there's too much information.
• Information is not shared (trust, technology, language).
• Information is often conflicting.
• New sources of information (e.g., the collective) are often not considered.
• No recognition of patterns across different types of information (people, processes, data)
But …
Pattern-Based Strategy Requires New
Disciplines
Pattern Seeking is a
discipline to seek and
exploit signals that may
lead to a pattern that
will have a positive or
negative impact on
strategy or operations.
Optempo Advantage is a
discipline for improving an
organization's competitive
rhythm so that it can
consistently and dynamically
match pace to purpose.
Transparency is a
discipline that enables
awareness and visibility to
facts that are critical to the
achievement of the
desired outcomes of an
organization.
Performance-Driven
Culture is a discipline
that extends the
traditional performance
focus to leading
indicators, modeling the
impact of patterns, and
driving desired behaviors
(as a result of a new
pattern) across the
organization.
IT Intrinsic to Pattern-Based Strategy
Today …
Act on the results at appropriate speed:
• Model-Driven Business Applications
• Business Process Management
• Application Development
• Business Activity Monitoring
• Service-Oriented Architecture
Find and Document Patterns:
• Predictive Analytics
• Industry Specific —e.g., Fraud/Security
• Social Media Platforms
• Information Mediums (Access to Data)
• Business Intelligence
Interpret, Analyze Pattern Impact, and Define Scenarios
• Performance Management
• Operation Planning & Modeling Tools
• Social Network Analysis
• Forecasting Tools
Patterns have been recognized and are often valuable, but have been limited in applicability … until now.
The Basics of Pattern-Based Strategy
Who is responsible? Everyone. Business leaders need to recognize current and new sources of information that may indicate a strategic or operational risk or opportunity.
What do you do? Invest in culture and technology to enable seeking, modeling and adapting to patterns that can have a positive or negative impact on your organization.
How do you execute?
Identify organizational capabilities where the impact of seeking, modeling and adapting will have business impact.
Where do I start? Focus on the most important areas of your business — understand the major business drivers (for example, new services, operational improvement).
Innovation
Risk
Operational Strategic
Discipline 1: Pattern Seeking —
Recognizing Weak Signals
Pattern Matching
Pattern Recognition
Creative Activity: Exploiting Collective
Knowledge To Seek Patterns
The collective comprises individuals, groups, communities, mobs,
markets and firms that have the ability to shape the direction of society
and business.
The collective is not new to higher education but
technology has made the collective more powerful –
and enabled change to happen more rapidly.
Discipline 2: Establishing a Performance-
Driven Culture
Performance-Driven Culture
Monitoring Enterprise
Metrics
Framework
Predictive
Planning/
Modeling
Pattern-Based
Strategy
Degree of Business Impact and Value
Evolution
Stage
Focus
Seek, Model, Adapt
to Changing
Patterns
What-if analysis, scenario planning,
optimization and simulation
Driving/outcome metrics, balanced scorecard, strategy maps,
leading/lagging indicators and validation of key performance
indicators
Reporting, dashboards, alerts and business activity monitoring
Discipline 3: Operational Tempo
Advantage Matching Pace to Purpose
Guidelines, principles and prescriptive actions for continuously adapting pace to purpose
Discipline 4: Transparency Is an Enabler
of Pattern-Based Strategy
Enrollment Weak SignalsKey Performance and Key Risk Indicators
Example
Metrics
Auditability
Business
Pattern
Activities
• Defined • Exception• Creative • Collective
• Undergrad
• Non-degree
• Applicants
• Prospects
• Degree requirements
• Net Promoters Score (alumni, stop outs)
• Social Network Size
• Very High
• High • Medium • Low
• Grad
• Financial aid
• Accreditationstatus
• Demographic changes
(Lagging) (Very Leading)Timeliness of Indicator
Patterns
• FTE• Head
count
• Retention
Risk: Which Cultural Model Best
Resembles Your Institution?
Horizontal Vertical
Management systematically and
explicitly recognizes and rewards
contributions to the success of others.
Management and measurement
systems do not.
Flat, horizontal organization with
authority broadly delegated to the
"end nodes."
Hierarchical organization with authority
concentrated at the top.
Open information access and
information flow.
Information available on a need to
know basis.
Collaborative, participatory, bottom up. Top down.
Status, rank, political capital not
key factors.
Status, rank and political capital are
critical determinants of who
controls what.
Fluid working relationships and anyone
can communicate with anyone else.
"Skip level" communication works only
in downward fashion.
Risk: Underinvestment in
Organizational Change Management
Time
Current
Base Line
Unrealistic Expectations
Momentof Truth Trough
of Despair
Gathering Momentum
Institutionalization
Light at End of Tunnel
Danger
Zone
Change Acceptance Cycle
Change Participation Rates
Change Adoption Distribution
Early Adopter
Reluctant Majority Resistant
Laggard
t
Change
Absorption
Rate
Volume, Velocity, Complexity
Absorption Threshold
0
100%
Change Mgmt. Effect
Change Absorption Thresholds
Performance
Strategy
Results Depend on
Balanced Strengths In Each Area
Enterprise
Architecture
Governance
• Project Management
• Programme Management
• Portfolio Management
• Benefits Realization
• Business Strategy
• IT Strategy
Engagement
Direction
Objectives,
Targets Constraints
Adapted from: The Information Paradox (2003) By John Thorp, pages 264-270
Presentation by Greg Farr, Defence CIO, to AIIA Canberra on 20 August 2008
• Business
• Applications
• Information
• Technology
• Security
Sourcing and
Vendor Management
ICT Operations
and Sustainment
Clarify What is Separate and
What is Shared – and Why
© 2000 P. Weill and M. Broadbent , from P. Weill & M. Broadbent Leveraging the New Infrastructure:How Market Leaders Capitalize on IT, Harvard Business School Press, June 1998
Research tools
Knowledge management
Financial management
Home page
PC/LAN service
Electronic mail
Large-scale
processing
Student database
Electronic malls
Telecom service
providers
Secure networks
Shared/Centrally
CoordinatedBusiness
Unit 1Business
Unit 2
Public Infrastructure(e.g., Internet, Vendors, Telcos, Industry Networks)
Enterprisewide Infrastructure
Corp. Infra
BU 1 Infra BU 2 Infra
LocalIT
LocalIT
LocalIT
Copyright © 2002. Matching IT Infrastructure with Business Initiatives,
Peter Weill, MIT Sloan CISR; Marianne Broadbent, Gartner; Mani Subramani, University of Minnesota.
Business Orientation Shapes the Maxims
Autonomous Enterprises 3
BusinessProcesses
Coordination and Skills
ManagementSystems for Coordination
More distinct and independent
Local innovation and competitive strengths
Few mandates, just enterprise financial and risk management
Thin layer firmwide, each BU infrastructure tailored
Information & Information Systems 3
Bus.Orient.
Synergistic Enterprises 1
Standardized and integrated across business units
Specified synergies mandated, duplication removed
BUs focus on BU and firmwide strategies
Substantial integrated firmwide infrastructure, shared services
AgileEnterprises 2
Modular, adaptable and easily combined
Firmwide, front-line responsiveness
BUs adapt to local conditions within firm-wide organizing logic
Modular capabilities centrally coordinated and architected
Ent.Charac.
1 ―Aligning IT Architecture with Organizational Realities‖ Jeanne Ross, David Robertson, George Westerman, Nils Fonstad.
MIT Sloan CISR Research Briefing, Vol 3, No 1A, March 2003.2 Drawing on the work of Duncan (1995), Kayworth, Chatterjee, and Sambamurthy (2001), Sambamurthy and Zmud (2000).3 Drawing on the work of Kayworth, Chatterjee, and Sambamurthy (2001), Weill, Subramani, and Broadbent (2002).
© 2003 MIT Sloan Center for Information Systems Research (Weill & Fonstad). Source Peter Weill & Jeanne Ross ―IT Governance: How Top Performers Manage IT Decision Rights for Superior Results‖, Harvard Press
IS Credibility CurvePotentialEconomic Value
Toolbox• Communication• Consistency• Reliability• Performance• Recruitment
Perception Pts.• Information• Problem Mgmt.• Policies
Toolbox• Budgets• Operations• Staffing
Perception Pts.• Response• Reliability
Level 1
Uncertainty
Level 2
Skepticism Toolbox• Svc. Portfolio• Skill Assessment• Relationship
Mgmt.• Project Mgmt.• Outsourcing• Svc. Recovery• Staff Dev.Perception Pts.• Competency• Business Smarts• SLAs• Priorities
Toolbox• Svc. Delivery• Architecture• Project Office• Resource Mgmt. • Competencies• MeasurementPerception Pts.• Leadership• Relationships• Behavior• Sourcing Choices• Service Pricing
Toolbox• Governance• Funding• Portfolio Mgmt.• Final Analysis• Career Pathing• Program Mgmt.• Work Flexibility• Strategic
Sourcing • SuccessionPerception Pts.• Alliances• Partnerships • Consultation• Innovation• Tangible Value
Level 5
Respect
Level 4
Trust
Level 3
Acceptance
The IS Credibility Curve:
From Cost Center to Business Center
Process-Based
Silos
Reactive
Proactive
Internal Service
Company (ISCo)
Value
Service
SharedServices Profit
Generator
Acts Like a Cost Center
Acts Like External anService Provider
Acts Like the Owner
Differentiation
Worst Practice
Uncertainty Skepticism Accept Trust Respect
UtilityLevels 1 and 2
EnhancementLevels 2 to 5
TranformationLevel 5
The Best Practice Model
Depends on Business
Service Expectations
Service Delivery Operating Models
Evolve With Rising Credibility
The Road to Real Time Infrastructure:
The Infrastructure Maturity Model
Objective
Ability to Change
Pricing Scheme
Business Interface
Resource Utilisation
Organisation
IT Management
Processes
Basic
RationalisedVirtualised
Service-Based
Standardised
Reduce complexity
Economies of scale
Flexibility, reduce costs
Service-level delivery
React
Weeks Weeks to days
Weeks to minutes
MinutesMonths to weeks
Fixed costsReduced, fixed costs
Fixed shared costs
Variable usage costs
None, ad hoc
Infrastructure resources
pooled
Services managed holistically
Uncoordinated infrastructure
Standard resources,
configurations
Consolidate to fewer
Policy- orValue-Based
Business agility
Minutes to seconds
Variable business costs
Dynamic optimisation to
meet SLAs
Class-of-service SLAs
Class-of-service SLAs
Flexible SLAsEnd-to-end SLAs
No SLAs
Known Rationalised Shared poolsService-based poolsUnknown
Central control ConsolidatedPooled ownership
Service-oriented
None
Business SLAs
Policy-based sharing
Business-oriented
Reactive —Proactive
Life cycle management
Proactive
Matureproblem management
Proactive
Prediction, dynamic capacity
Service
End-to-end service management
Chaotic —Reactive
Ad hoc
Value
Policy management
Higher Education CIO Business Priorities
Ranking 2009 C 2008 2012
Improving business processes 1 1 5
Increasing the use of information and analytics 2 3 6
Reducing enterprise costs 3 10 *
Improving enterprise workforce effectiveness 4 9 7
Attracting and retaining new customers 5 2 1
Targeting customers and markets more effectively 6 4 2
Creating new products or services (innovation) 7 5 3
Managing enterprise change initiatives 8 6 8
Creating new sources of competitive advantage 9 8 4
Expanding current customer relationships 10 7 *
Managing your environmental impact
(green IT, carbon footprint)* * 9
Expanding into new markets or geographies * * 10
Gartner's annual CIO survey contains results from 75 higher education CIOs, out of a total of 1,526 total CIO responses.
* = not ranked in Top 10
Technology Trigger
Peak ofInflated
Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of EnlightenmentPlateau of
Productivity
time
expectations
Years to mainstream adoption:
less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 yearsobsoletebefore plateau
As of July 2009
BPO — Education
Quantum Computing
SIS International DataInteroperability Standards
Mobile-Learning Smartphone
Social Learning Platform
Open-Source HigherEducation SIS
Digital Preservation ofResearch Data
E-TextbookCloud HPC/CaaS in
Higher Education
CobiT — Education
Mobile-Learning Low-Range/Midrange Handsets
Open-Source Higher EducationFinancials
Unified Communications and CollaborationLecture Capture and Retrieval Tools
Web-Based OfficeProductivity Suites
Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds — Higher Education
Emergency Notification/Mass Notification Software
Mashups — Higher Education
ITIL — Education
E-LearningRepositories
802.11n
Organizational-CentricIAM — Education
Open-Source HigherEducation Portals
E-Portfolios
Social Networking in Education
Tablet PC
Digital RightsManagement —
Higher Education
Wikis
CRM for Enrollment ManagementFederated Identity ManagementOpen-Source E-Learning Applications
Grid Computing —Higher Education
Web and ApplicationHosting
Web Services forAdministrative Applications
User-Centric Identity Frameworks
Global Library Digitization Projects
Hosted Virtual Desktops
Hosted PC Virtualization Software
SaaS AdministrationApplications for Education Cloud E-Mail for Higher Education
Podcasting Learning Content
IT Infrastructure Utility
Education Hype Cycle 2009
Chaotic
Sandpit
Disciplined
Engine Room
Healthy
Hothouse
Framework for Managing Technology
Adoption in Higher Education
Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Not in Use
Watch
Plan
Pilot
Adopt
Use
Experiment
Play
Focused Use
Enable
Broad Use
Leverage
Conceptualize
Build
Contribute
Commercialize
Sell
Exit ResearchUse
Research
Teaching/Learning
Administration
Chaotic
Sandpit
Disciplined
Engine RoomHealthy
Hothouse
"Cloud"Office
13
"Free"cloudmail
Education Hype Cycle 2009:
A Selective Technology Strategy MapTechnology Trigger
1. BPO — Education
2. OSS SIS
3. User-centric identity frameworks (UCIAM)
4. CobiT
5. Social learning platform
6. Mobile learning smartphone
Peak of Inflated Expectations
7. OSS financials
8. Lecture capture and retrieval tools
9. Web-based office productivity suites "Cloud Office"
10. Virtual worlds
Trough of Disillusionment
11. ITIL
12. Organizational-centric IAM
13. Cloud e-mail
14. E-portfolios
Slope of Enlightenment
15. Social networking in education
16. Wikis
17. Federated identity management (FIAM)
18. Web & application hosting
Plateau of Productivity
19. Web services for administrative computing
19
10Virtualworlds
6Mobilelearningsmartphone
4
18
9
BPO
8Lecture capture& retrieval
CobiT
Web and app.hosting
17 FIAM
7OSSfin.
Improves Student and Faculty
Experience
Imp
rove
sIn
sti
tuti
on
al R
OI
Personal Productivity
Org
an
izati
on
al
Eff
icie
nc
y
16 Wiki
2OSSSIS
15 Socialnetwork
5
Social learningplatform
WSadmin.comp.
1
12 O.C.IAM
11 ITIL
3 UCIAM
14E-portfolios
Improves… Remember "everything is relative"
Emergent Architecture: Enabling
Interoperability While Not Constraining Change
Unexpected reuse is the value of the WebTim Berners-Lee
FederatedComponents
SimpleInterface
GenericSolutions
E x
t e
n s
i b
l e
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Emergent Architecture is Based on Simple,
Standard Identifiers, Formats, Protocols
Examples
Identifier
Address
Reference
Name
Format
Document
Message
Container
Protocol
Method
Operation
Process
IP IP Address IP Packet IP Protocol
E-Mail @ Address RFC 2822 SMTP(Simple Mail Transfer Protocol)
Web URI(Uniform Resource Identifier)
HTML(Hypertext Markup Language)
HTTP(Hypertext Transfer Protocol)
WS-* URI SOAP Envelope
SOAP Protocol
Three rules
- Concentrate on form, not function
- Concentrate on communication, not operation
- Concentrate on identification, not content
Simple Interface
The Learning Conundrum
Therefore,
most of the
money
organizations
spend on
learning does
not make
people more
proficient or
productive.
Where
learning
$ goesFormal learning
Where
learning
occurs
Informal
learning
A Social Learning Platform Emerges
E-Learning
FORMAL INFORMAL
Instructor-led training
Certification
Compliance
Mentoring Coaching
Expertise
"Ask an expert"
Structured Information
Repositories
Communities of Practice
and Social Networks
Unstructured Information
Sources
SOCIAL LEARNING PLATFORM
Performance
Expert intervention
Experts and Peers
STRUCTURED SOCIAL
Conclusions and Recommendations
• Pattern-Based Strategy is both about technology and culture.
• Understand how you "seek, model and adapt" today — and where the integration of these three will enable more-efficient institutional outcomes.
• Include the "collective" as a source of seeking new/novel patterns.
• Start small — identify critical patterns where exceptions have a big impact (and there is little/no planning) — apply seek, model, adapt (i.e. degree offerings, funding, financial aid, retention)
• Understand how your institution and/or department exploits the four disciplines: pattern seeking, optempo advantage, performance-driven culture, transparency.
• Shift your architectural focus from standardisation toward enablement of continuous change.
• Think about EA in terms of how to infuence relationships
• Leverage the EA community of practice